Prologis (PLD) Q3 2026 Earnings: Cash Same-Store NOI Slows to 5.9%

Prologis (PLD) Q3 2026 earnings, reported in an 8-K on October 15, 2026, show rent pricing still strong while cash conversion and fee growth in its third-party capital business slowed [1][2]. Four questions frame the quarter: how much rent upside remains on expiring leases, whether land and power keep turning into development gains, whether management fees can grow without promote income, and whether the share issuance tied to the SEGRO acquisition can be absorbed. Net effective rent change rose to 38%, but cash same-store NOI growth fell to 5.9%. Guidance for third-party capital revenue was cut. Data centers produced gains but no new starts. Core FFO per share rose 7% year over year [1][2]. The operating model is intact; its parameters changed, and the fourth-quarter per-share math is tighter.

Prologis is the world's largest owner and developer of logistics real estate. It leases warehouses to roughly 6,500 customers, and rental revenue was 92.8% of total revenue in 2025. It also earns management fees from co-investment ventures and gains from developing and selling or contributing properties [3].

Rent change held up while cash same-store NOI growth slowed

Pricing kept strengthening in the third quarter. Net effective rent change on Prologis Share was 38.0%, up from about 36% in the second quarter [2][4]. Net effective same-store NOI grew 5.7%, down from 6.4% in the second quarter but inside the company's raised full-year range of 5.5%-6.0%. Period-end occupancy was 95.6%, roughly flat with the second quarter [1][2].

The cash measure weakened sharply. Cash same-store NOI growth fell from 8.5% to 5.9%, and its gap over the net effective measure narrowed from 2.1 percentage points to 0.2 percentage points [2]. The cash measure counts rent as collected and does not spread free-rent periods over the lease term, so the first-half cash lead has largely disappeared. Leasing costs for tenant improvements and commissions reached $251.9 million, up 18% year over year, while the operating portfolio area of leases commenced fell from 62.35 million to 54.39 million square feet [2].

Consolidated rental revenue rose 7.4% year over year, but the turnover-cost deduction in AFFO grew from $138.2 million to $177.5 million, so less of the rent growth reached cash [2]. The company raised full-year cash same-store NOI guidance to 7.00%-7.50%, which mainly reflects strong first-half growth [1]. No earnings-call material was available for this quarter, so it is unknown whether the lease mark-to-market is still near the prior 17% [4].

Third-party capital fees still grew, but full-year guidance was cut

Prologis lowered its full-year guidance for the third-party capital business. Strategic capital revenue excluding promotes, the extra share earned when fund returns clear a hurdle, is now guided at $650-$660 million, down from $660-$680 million. Guidance for contributions to co-investment ventures fell from $2.0-$2.5 billion to $1.75-$2.25 billion, and disposition guidance was also lowered. The company did not explain the cuts [1].

Quarterly revenue did not weaken. Third-quarter strategic capital revenue was $164.3 million, up 9.3% year over year, and promote revenue was only $0.69 million. Second-quarter revenue was $241.6 million and included about $83 million of promotes [2][4][5].

The cut is $10-$20 million, a small amount for earnings, but it shows fee growth running below plan. Based on nine-month results, the new range implies fourth-quarter revenue excluding promotes of about $167-$177 million. Smaller contributions point the same way as the guidance cut, but the link is not confirmed.

Development gains and funding kept the earlier view intact

Data centers produced gains, but starts paused. Gains on dispositions of development properties and land were $51.5 million in the third quarter, compared with $15.4 million a year earlier, and full-year guidance for realized development gains stayed at $600-$700 million [1][2]. There were no data center starts in the third quarter, so the roughly $2.09 billion started in the first nine months all came from the first half. The power pipeline stayed at 5.8 gigawatts, and 680 megawatts of projects under development, about $2.59 billion, are fully leased [2]. If the pause continues, monetization after 2027 would be delayed.

Organic growth is absorbing the share cost of the SEGRO acquisition for now. After the August offering, diluted weighted average shares were 968.5 million in the third quarter, up 1.2% year over year, and Core FFO per share was $1.60, up 7% [2][6]. Debt to Adjusted EBITDA fell to 4.5x, and SEGRO shareholders approved the deal [1][2]. Full-year Core FFO guidance narrowed to $6.25-$6.29 per share, which implies $1.52-$1.56 for the fourth quarter, below the third quarter. Guidance for GAAP net earnings per share was cut to $4.05-$4.15 without a disclosed reason, and the filing gave no update on court and regulatory approvals [1][2].

Conclusion

The quarter weakened the quality of growth without changing the operating model. Core FFO per share rose 7% and AFFO was $1.21 billion, up 13% year over year, but cash same-store NOI growth nearly matched the accounting measure, leasing costs rose and fee growth fell short of plan [2].

Three pieces of evidence will shape the next read: whether fourth-quarter cash same-store NOI growth falls below the net effective measure, whether strategic capital revenue reaches the implied level, and whether data center starts resume and Core FFO per share lands within guidance.

Sources

• [1] PLD 8-K EX-99.2 Q3 2026 earnings release 2026-10-15 (October 15, 2026, Prologis 8-K Exhibit 99.2 earnings release, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/pld-ex99_2.htm)
• [2] PLD 8-K EX-99.1 Q3 2026 supplemental 2026-10-15 (October 15, 2026, Prologis 8-K Exhibit 99.1 supplemental information, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/pld-ex99_1.htm)
• [3] PLD 10-K filed 2026-02-13 (February 13, 2026, Prologis 2025 Form 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045609&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40)
• [4] PLD Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-16 (July 16, 2026, Prologis Q2 2026 earnings call, https://www.prologis.com/investor-relations)
• [5] PLD 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 (July 29, 2026, Prologis Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045609&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40)
• [6] PLD 8-K announcement: Prologis Announces Common Stock Offering, 2026-08-04 (August 4, 2026, Prologis 8-K offering announcement, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/prologis-announces-common-stock-offering-302842289.html)