Daily ideas

Ribbon and ADTRAN say big network vendors are shifting to AI cloud builds, leaving Tier 2 carriers underserved; Ribbon won two new US Tier 2 customers.

ArcelorMittal earned 2Q 2026 EBITDA of $2,064 million while net debt rose to $9,500 million; Q3 results must show whether Europe holds volumes and margins under the EU quota.

Sun Communities and UMH say the ROAD to Housing Act drops the chassis rule and revives small home loans; UMH eyes cash from $110M in loans, but HUD rules take 1+ year.

Sun Life grew Q2 2026 underlying net income 11% to C$1.123 billion; Q3 earnings test whether US$22.9 billion of MFS outflows erode fees as insurance gains normalize.

Illumina and Revvity say AI drug discovery is short of standardized wet-lab data; Illumina is turning backlog into revenue and Revvity's backlog grew in almost every instrument group.

Live Nation's Q2 2026 revenue rose 9% to $7.7 billion while Concerts AOI fell 14%; Q3 results test whether delayed stadium shows restore concert profit.

Progressive's homeowners new applications rose 22% and EverQuote's home revenue 70% as US carriers reopen after a low-catastrophe year and cheaper reinsurance.

Con Edison earned $3.00 adjusted EPS in the first half of 2026 against $6.00-$6.20 guidance; Q3 earnings test whether peak-season electric profit can keep pace with rate base growth.

Mobileye added over 1 million units from Chinese automakers' export models, and Aptiv's export share heads to the mid-teens, as compliance decides who supplies ADAS.

Humana grew individual Medicare Advantage to 6.45 million members with a 91.2% Q2 benefit ratio; Q3 results test whether new members keep it near the guided 94%.

SLB (SLB) and Transocean (RIG) say NOCs are funding multi-year exploration for energy security on breakevens of $50 a barrel and below, loosening the link to crude.

AngloGold Ashanti made $727m of Q2 free cash flow as output fell 7% to 744koz and cash costs hit $1,480/oz; Q3 tests whether Obuasi's recovery pulls costs back into guidance.

Harmonic and Liberty Global say cable operators are upgrading HFC to DOCSIS 4.0 instead of building fiber; Liberty puts the cost at one-tenth of fiber.

Microchip's June-quarter revenue rose 38% to $1.485 billion with a 63.8% non-GAAP gross margin; the test is whether 7%-9% sequential growth holds without channel restocking.

GoDaddy and DigitalOcean say coding agents now pick and buy domains and cloud services; about half of DigitalOcean.com visitors are agents, while domain discounts deepen.

Vistra lifted Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $1,767 million from $1,349 million; Q3 earnings must show whether weak ERCOT prices push its 2027 outlook below $7.4 billion.

Ryanair and Lufthansa say expiring fuel hedges and scarce aircraft are cutting European capacity; Lufthansa's fuel recapture rose from 60% to above 100%.

Devon produced 1.36 million Boe/d with $1.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow in Q2 2026 after Coterra; Q3 earnings test whether oil hits 555,000 b/d within $1.5 billion of capex.