Vail Resorts (MTN) FY2026 Results: Pass Units Down 12%, Leverage 3.9x

Vail Resorts (MTN) fiscal 2026 results, released on September 28, 2026 in its earnings press release and 10-K for the fiscal year and fourth quarter ended July 31, 2026, show that prepaid season passes protected the year already sold, but the fall selling period did not win back pass sales for the next ski season [1][2]. Of the four questions tracked going into the release (the pass sales gap, revenue per visit, the full-year profit guidance and whether prepaid cash still covers fixed commitments), the pass gap widened, prepaid cash fell, leverage rose, the rise in revenue per visit was mostly a prepayment effect, and Resort Reported EBITDA landed inside guidance [1][3]. The next year now depends more on lift ticket guests returning in a normal winter and on whether a profit recovery can bring leverage down.

Vail Resorts operates 42 ski resorts in North America and also owns ski areas in Switzerland and Australia; its core product is the Epic Pass, sold months before the season starts [2][1]. Lift tickets are the main source of revenue, and in fiscal 2026 pass products made up about 70% of lift revenue, with the rest of revenue coming from ski school, dining, retail and rental, and other lines [2].

Change one: the fall selling period did not narrow the pass sales gap

Through September 18, 2026, North American pass unit sales for the 2026/27 season were down about 12% year over year, days sold were down about 10%, and sales dollars including taxes were down about 6% [1]. At the May 26 checkpoint the three measures were down about 10%, 8% and 5%, so the fall selling period widened the gap [4]. The Company said the decline is concentrated in lower-frequency passes bought by Destination guests [1].

Sales dollars fell about half as much as units, so average revenue per pass rose about 7%. That came from the 3% to 4% price increases and a shift toward unlimited passes, not from more buyers [5][1]. Management believes these guests have delayed their purchase and may come back through lift tickets during the season [1]. Because the gap widened in the fall instead of closing, the decline should be read as a smaller committed revenue base for next season. Whether lift tickets make up the shortfall will show in winter lift revenue and depends on snowfall.

Change two: prepaid cash shrank and net leverage rose to 3.9 times

At July 31, 2026, short-term deferred revenue was $566.5 million, down 5.9% from a year earlier; it consists mainly of pass money collected before the season [3]. Operating cash flow for the year was $479.6 million. After $231.6 million of capital expenditures, about $248 million remained, which did not cover $317.1 million of dividends and $45 million of share repurchases; cash and borrowing filled a gap of about $114 million [2][3].

Net debt rose to $2.918 billion, or 3.9 times trailing twelve-month EBITDA, and total liquidity was about $0.8 billion [1]. At April 30 the two figures were 3.5 times and about $1.1 billion [6]; a year earlier, at the same point in the season, leverage was about 3.2 times, so it also rose year over year [1]. The Company kept its quarterly dividend at $2.22 per share and said it will pay it from available liquidity [2]. According to the earnings call summary, management expects leverage to fall back to about 3.5 times by the end of fiscal 2027, provided the profit guidance is met [7].

Change three: visits fell sharply, and higher revenue per visit is mostly a prepayment effect

Skier visits in fiscal 2026 were 15.299 million, down 13.4%, while lift revenue fell only 3.5% to $1.451 billion, because pass revenue rose 3.9% and non-pass lift revenue fell 17.5% [2][1]. Effective ticket price, which is lift revenue divided by visits, rose 11.5% to $94.85, but the effective price of non-pass tickets fell 8.8%, so the increase mainly reflects prepaid revenue spread over fewer visits [2].

Ski school, dining and retail/rental revenue together fell 8.2%, 5.2 percentage points less than visits, and ancillary spending per visit rose from about $48.30 to about $51.20 [2]. Over the same period the Destination share of visits rose from 56% to about 58%; these guests spend more on ancillary services, and the Company did not attribute the gain to its own initiatives [2].

Progress: profit landed inside guidance while the margin fell

Fiscal 2026 Resort Reported EBITDA was $745.7 million, including $11 million of one-time costs, inside the $735 million to $755 million guidance range, while the margin fell from 28.5% to 26.3% [1][6]. The Company's fiscal 2027 guidance is $805 million to $865 million, assuming normal winter weather; excluding one-time costs, the implied margin is about 27.3%, about 200 basis points below the original fiscal 2026 outlook [1].

Conclusion

Prepaid passes protected revenue and profit in a bad year, but next year's committed revenue, prepaid cash and balance sheet are all shrinking. Growth depends on lift ticket guests returning in a normal winter, the profit recovery depends on meeting fiscal 2027 guidance, and the dividend is being supported by liquidity for now. This pressure lasts at least through the end of the 2026/27 season. The next evidence will be the full-season pass sales figures in December, deferred revenue at the end of October and the calendar 2027 capital plan.

Sources

[1] MTN 8-K filed 2026-09-28 (fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year results, Exhibit 99.1), 2026-09-28, Vail Resorts, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 earnings press release, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000048/a20260731pressrelease.htm [2] MTN 10-K filed 2026-09-28 (Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis), 2026-09-28, Vail Resorts, 10-K Management's Discussion and Analysis, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm [3] MTN 10-K filed 2026-09-28 (fiscal year ended 2026-07-31), 2026-09-28, Vail Resorts, 10-K annual report, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm [4] MTN 8-K filed 2026-06-08 (fiscal 2026 season pass sales and guidance update), 2026-06-08, Vail Resorts, 8-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000812011/000081201126000025/a2026430pressrelease.htm [5] MTN earnings call 2026-03-09 (fiscal 2026 second quarter), 2026-03-09, earnings call, https://investors.vailresorts.com/quarterly-annual-results [6] MTN 8-K filed 2026-06-08 (fiscal 2026 third quarter results), 2026-06-08, Vail Resorts, 8-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000812011/000081201126000025/a2026430pressrelease.htm [7] MTN earnings call 2026-09-28 (fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and year-end, Drillr earning_call_summary), 2026-09-28, earnings call summary (Drillr)