[NVO] Novo Nordisk: Q3 2026 earnings preview on Wegovy pill, pricing and margins

Novo Nordisk is a Danish drugmaker that earns more than 90% of its revenue from semaglutide-based diabetes and obesity medicines such as Ozempic and Wegovy, and it plans to report results for the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026, on 2026-11-04[1]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, sales were DKK 78.49 billion, up 7% at constant exchange rates (CER), and adjusted operating profit was DKK 33.39 billion, up 11%, but the adjusted gross margin fell to 78.2% from 82.7% a year earlier[2][3]. On August 4 the company raised its 2026 guidance for both adjusted sales growth and adjusted operating profit growth to 0% to -6% at CER and set full-year free cash flow guidance at DKK 45-55 billion[4][5]. Analyst estimates compiled by Drillr put third-quarter revenue at a mean of DKK 74.06 billion (6 analysts, range DKK 71.39-77.96 billion), operating profit at DKK 29.10 billion and EPS at DKK 4.94 (3 analysts)[6]; in dollar terms, the earnings calendar records expectations of $0.74 per ADR on revenue of $11.09 billion[1]. The full-year revenue mean is DKK 304.01 billion (15 analysts)[7], which leaves only about DKK 128.7 billion for the second half after subtracting first-half reported sales of DKK 175.31 billion, a sign that some analysts model the reported basis and others the adjusted basis; the sample is small and the bases are mixed, so the figures are only a reference point[2].

Three things matter most in this Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 earnings preview. The first is whether the US obesity business can keep growing: second-quarter US obesity sales were DKK 12.82 billion, up 4% at CER, with injectable Wegovy down 22% and the newly launched Wegovy pill contributing DKK 3.14 billion, so whether pill uptake keeps offsetting price cuts determines how far US sales fall[8][9]. The second is whether International Operations can outrun patent expiry: the region grew 10% in the second quarter, but management said the impact of semaglutide exclusivity loss in markets such as Canada and Brazil will concentrate in the second half, making the third quarter the first period where it can be seen[8][10]. The third is whether the gross margin can return above 80%: the second-quarter adjusted gross margin of 78.2% included about DKK 3 billion of one-time capacity contract costs, and the margin without that charge will show whether lower prices and new-capacity depreciation are a one-off hit or structural pressure, and how much free cash flow the second half gives back[3][5].

Company Background and Business Structure

Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Denmark, its B shares trade in Copenhagen, and its ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker NVO, with the company filing a 20-F with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The company carried out a company-wide transformation in 2025 that reduced headcount to 69,505 at year-end, 10% fewer than at the end of 2024[11]. On the second-quarter call, management said the transformation was ahead of plan, about DKK 8 billion of targeted savings were on track, and full-time headcount was down about 15% (about 12,000 employees) year over year[12].

The company has two reportable segments, and Obesity and Diabetes care dominates. In the second quarter of 2026, the Obesity and Diabetes care segment had sales of DKK 73.58 billion, about 94% of the total, while Rare disease (haemophilia, growth hormone and other therapies) had sales of DKK 4.91 billion, about 6%[13]. Obesity products include injectable Wegovy, the Wegovy pill and Saxenda, and diabetes products include Ozempic, Ozempic pill/Rybelsus, Victoza and a range of insulins. In 2025, Ozempic sales were DKK 127.09 billion (DKK 88.47 billion in the US) and Wegovy sales were DKK 79.11 billion (DKK 51.02 billion in the US)[14], while combined obesity care sales of Saxenda and Wegovy were DKK 82.35 billion[15].

The United States is the largest single market, with 2025 US net sales of DKK 173.17 billion, about 56% of the group[14]. International Operations consists of four regions: EUCAN (Europe and Canada), Emerging Markets (mainly Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), APAC and Region China, and the most important markets in 2025 were the US, China, Canada, Japan and the major European countries[16]. By the second quarter of 2026 the two operating units were close in size, with US adjusted sales of DKK 40.87 billion and International Operations at DKK 37.62 billion[8].

The production base and the US sales channel shape both costs and net prices. Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production is concentrated in Kalundborg, Denmark, where an API expansion is expected to cost about DKK 49.6 billion, with DKK 23.1 billion spent by the end of 2025 and full operation expected in 2029[17]; purchases of property, plant and equipment were DKK 60.14 billion in 2025[18], and the company guides to about DKK 55 billion of capital expenditure in 2026[5]. In the US, the company pays rebates to Medicare, Medicaid, pharmacy benefit managers and managed care plans[19], while also selling directly to self-pay patients through NovoCare Pharmacy and telehealth partners, with Wegovy pill self-pay prices of $149-299 per month depending on dose[20]. Group gross sales in 2025 were DKK 729.42 billion, of which US rebates, discounts and returns alone removed DKK 394.63 billion[14].

Financial History and Current Position

Novo Nordisk's annual sales growth slowed sharply in 2025 after a large increase in 2024. Net sales were DKK 232.26 billion in 2023, DKK 290.40 billion in 2024 and DKK 309.06 billion in 2025; gross profit was DKK 196.50 billion, DKK 245.88 billion and DKK 250.28 billion, putting the 2025 gross margin at about 81%[18]. Net profit over the three years was DKK 83.68 billion, DKK 100.99 billion and DKK 102.43 billion, with diluted EPS of DKK 18.62, DKK 22.63 and DKK 23.03; 2025 operating profit was DKK 127.66 billion, slightly below DKK 128.34 billion in 2024[18].

The 2025 cash flow shows that capacity investment and dividends already absorbed most operating cash. Operating cash flow was DKK 119.10 billion, purchases of property, plant and equipment were DKK 60.14 billion, dividends paid were DKK 51.76 billion and year-end cash was DKK 26.46 billion[18]. In its annual filing, the company said pricing pressure within Obesity and Diabetes care would continue in 2026[21].

First-quarter 2026 reported figures were lifted sharply by an accounting reversal, so the adjusted basis reflects the underlying business. Reported first-quarter sales were DKK 96.82 billion, including a reversal of about DKK 26.8 billion ($4.2 billion) of rebate provisions related to the US 340B Drug Pricing Program, which had no cash impact[22][23]. Excluding it, adjusted first-quarter sales were DKK 70.06 billion, down 4% at CER, and adjusted operating profit was DKK 32.86 billion[22]; US Operations fell 11% and International Operations grew 6%, and full-year adjusted sales growth guidance at the time was -4% to -12%[24].

Growth resumed in the second quarter of 2026, but reported profit was weighed down by impairments. Second-quarter sales were DKK 78.49 billion on both the reported and adjusted basis, up 7% at CER; adjusted operating profit was DKK 33.39 billion, up 11%; reported operating profit was DKK 27.06 billion, with R&D costs including DKK 6.33 billion of impairments; net profit was DKK 20.99 billion and adjusted diluted EPS was DKK 6.18[2][25]. First-half adjusted sales were DKK 148.55 billion, up 2%, and adjusted operating profit was DKK 66.25 billion, up 2%; first-half free cash flow was DKK 55.30 billion and capital expenditure DKK 23.99 billion, the company returned DKK 41.2 billion to shareholders through DKK 35.31 billion of dividends and DKK 5.90 billion of buybacks, and equity at the end of June was DKK 221.28 billion, or 37.2% of total assets[26], with cash of DKK 44.48 billion[2].

Operating Model

Novo Nordisk's revenue equals prescription volume for each product multiplied by the net price after rebates, and the scale of US rebates creates a large gap between list prices and actual revenue. In 2025, group gross sales were DKK 729.42 billion, US rebates, discounts and returns were DKK 394.63 billion, non-US deductions were about DKK 25.73 billion, and net sales came to DKK 309.06 billion[14]. Rebate provisions rely on estimates of legal interpretations, payer channel mix and claim lags, the auditor treats them as a critical audit matter, and any change in those estimates moves revenue directly in the period it is made[19]: the 340B reversal lifted first-quarter reported sales, and second-quarter US GLP-1 diabetes sales were also helped by positive prior-period rebate adjustments[27]. Volume changes usually show up in sales within the same quarter, while pricing policies such as the MFN agreement pass through to net prices gradually via rebate contracts and channel structure.

The second-quarter 2026 sales mix shows that US and international growth have different drivers. US adjusted sales were DKK 40.87 billion, up 4% at CER, including DKK 12.82 billion of obesity care and DKK 22.80 billion of GLP-1 diabetes; International Operations sales were DKK 37.62 billion, up 10%, including DKK 10.33 billion of obesity care and DKK 13.98 billion of GLP-1 diabetes[8]. US growth comes mainly from volume offsetting lower prices, while international growth comes mainly from obesity drug penetration.

Operating profit equals adjusted sales minus cost of goods sold, sales and distribution, R&D, administrative and other items, and price declines fall almost entirely through to gross profit. Second-quarter sales of DKK 78.49 billion minus cost of goods sold of DKK 17.10 billion (including about DKK 3 billion of one-time capacity contract costs) gave gross profit of DKK 61.39 billion and a 78.2% gross margin; subtracting sales and distribution of DKK 15.00 billion, adjusted R&D of DKK 11.46 billion, administration of DKK 1.31 billion and other items of DKK 0.23 billion left adjusted operating profit of DKK 33.39 billion, a 42.5% margin[25][3]. Once new capacity comes on line its depreciation enters cost of goods sold, with a lag between investment and cost[17]; transformation savings of about DKK 8 billion are partly reinvested in R&D and commercial activity[12], and the company has said R&D and promotional spending will be higher in the second half than in the first[5].

Free cash flow depends on the timing of operating cash and on capital expenditure, and second-half cash generation will be weaker than the first half. From 2026, the company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus purchases of property, plant and equipment; first-half operating cash flow was DKK 79.28 billion, capital expenditure DKK 23.99 billion and free cash flow DKK 55.30 billion, with the increase driven by phasing of operating expenses, the timing of US rebate and tax payments and lower capital expenditure[26]. The 340B reversal affected only reported revenue and generated no cash[23]. Full-year guidance of DKK 45-55 billion of free cash flow and about DKK 55 billion of capital expenditure implies second-half free cash flow of roughly DKK -0.3 billion to DKK -10.3 billion, and the company has said the 2027 list price cut will affect 2027 cash flow[5].

Industry and Competitive Position

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly hold the largest shares of the global diabetes, GLP-1 and obesity markets, and competition is concentrated between the two. In its annual filing the company wrote that Wegovy had led US anti-obesity medications by total weekly prescriptions for years, but was overtaken by a competing GLP-1-based product at the beginning of 2025, and that several other large drugmakers and biotech companies have obesity drugs in development[16].

Data from the second-quarter call show Novo Nordisk still leads in oral obesity treatment and outside the US. Management said the Wegovy pill held about 90% of the US oral obesity market, the Wegovy franchise held about 60% of US branded obesity new-to-brand prescriptions, and the company held a 58% GLP-1 volume share outside the US[28]. In the UK, about 300,000 patients started the Wegovy pill within three weeks of launch, lifting the company's local obesity share from 30% to 45%[12]. However, from 2026-10-01 CVS Caremark will add weight-loss medicines other than Wegovy to its largest commercial template formularies[20].

Patents and pricing policy are external constraints on the competitive position, and the available comparison has clear limits. The US compound patent for semaglutide expires in 2032, and the Chinese patent was upheld by the Supreme People's Court in December 2025[15], but exclusivity has already ended in international markets such as Canada and Brazil, with the impact expected to concentrate in the second half of 2026[10]. In the US, the Most Favored Nations (MFN) agreement signed in November 2025 broadened access through Medicare, Medicaid and self-pay while lowering prices, and a Medicare Part D obesity pilot was planned to start on July 1, 2026[29], while Medicaid coverage of obesity drugs is shrinking[4]. The company does not disclose unit prices or revenue by channel, and weekly prescription data come from external providers whose capture rates are still changing[20], so price and volume can be separated only roughly.

Core Debates

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill generated DKK 3.1 billion of US sales within six months of launch, while US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 22% year over year. Under even lower pricing in the third quarter, can the pill's uptake keep the US obesity business growing?

This debate determines how steep the US decline is within the company's full-year guidance of falling US sales and growing international sales. The US is Novo Nordisk's largest market, with 2025 net sales of DKK 173.17 billion, about 56% of the group[14]; in 2026 the company deliberately traded price for access through the MFN agreement, the Medicare Bridge programme and self-pay prices of $149-299 per month[29], and it announced a roughly 50% cut to Wegovy's list price from January 2027[5]. Whether volume can offset price in US obesity care is the direct test of that strategy.

Second-quarter data show the pill brought in new patients, but the injectable's net price fell faster. US obesity adjusted sales were DKK 12.82 billion, up 4% at CER, with injectable Wegovy at DKK 9.64 billion, down 22%, and the Wegovy pill at DKK 3.14 billion[8]; the company attributed the injectable decline to lower realised prices, partly offset by higher volumes[9]. The pill generated about 2.9 million prescriptions in the second quarter and more than 265,000 in the week ending July 17, 2026; in the same week the injectable had about 310,000 prescriptions, of which about 120,000 were self-pay[20]. Management said about 80% of pill patients were new to GLP-1 treatment and cannibalisation of the injectable was limited[12].

An alternative reading also fits the evidence, which is why the debate remains open. Early pill uptake may be concentrated among low-dose, self-pay, price-sensitive new patients, so prescription growth could slow quickly while injectable patients move to cheaper channels. The financial chain runs from weekly prescriptions multiplied by realised net prices after MFN, self-pay pricing and rebates, to US obesity net sales, and then to adjusted sales and gross profit; because the pill is priced below the injectable and draws mainly new patients, it expands volume while pulling down the average price[9][20].

The third-quarter report can test this debate from both sales and prescriptions. Readers should watch whether US obesity growth at CER stays at or above +4%, whether global Wegovy pill sales exceed the second quarter's DKK 3.22 billion, whether the injectable decline widens beyond 30%, whether the latest weekly prescriptions stay above 265,000 for the pill and around 310,000 for the injectable, and what the company discloses about new patients from the Medicare Bridge programme[2][20]. If US obesity sales turn negative year over year, volume growth is no longer enough to offset lower prices; if pill sales fall quarter over quarter while prescriptions keep rising, unit prices are dropping quickly.

Novo Nordisk's International Operations grew 10% in the second quarter, but semaglutide patents have expired in markets such as Canada and Brazil, and the company expects the impact to concentrate in the second half. Can obesity uptake still outrun generics in the third quarter?

This debate concerns the other pillar of full-year guidance. The 2026 guidance assumes growth in International Operations and a decline in US Operations[4], and International Operations delivered 65% of group CER growth in the second quarter[8]. If patent expiry also pushes the international business into decline, both the full-year guidance and the starting point for 2027 would be affected.

International growth in the second quarter came mainly from EUCAN and obesity, while Emerging Markets were already under pressure. International Operations adjusted sales were DKK 37.62 billion, up 10%; EUCAN contributed DKK 19.21 billion, up 17%, including Ozempic sales of DKK 7.18 billion, up 22%; international obesity sales were DKK 10.33 billion, up 37%; and Emerging Markets were DKK 8.41 billion, up only 5%[8], with GLP-1 diabetes sales there of DKK 2.25 billion, down 22%[30]. Management said the first generic entries in markets that lost exclusivity have had a modest effect so far, and the company holds a 58% GLP-1 volume share outside the US[28]; about 300,000 patients started the Wegovy pill in the UK within three weeks of launch[12].

An alternative reading is that the strong second quarter came before the patent-expiry hit. Canada sits in EUCAN and Brazil in Emerging Markets, so Ozempic and GLP-1 diabetes sales in both regions could come under pressure at the same time in the second half, and management has said the impact will carry into 2027[10]. The financial chain is that obesity market expansion plus new launches of Wegovy HD and the pill drive international obesity volume, generic entry in markets that lost exclusivity lowers price and share and weighs on international diabetes sales, and the net of the two determines International Operations sales and group adjusted sales[31].

EUCAN Ozempic growth and the decline in Emerging Markets GLP-1 diabetes sales in the third quarter are the direct observations that separate these two readings. Readers should watch whether International Operations growth at CER stays at or above +5%, whether international obesity growth stays above +30%, whether the Emerging Markets GLP-1 diabetes decline widens, how the pill launch progresses in Germany and other markets, and how management describes the impact of patent expiry[12][10]. If International Operations turn negative in the third quarter, the patent-expiry impact is outpacing uptake; if GLP-1 volume share outside the US falls below 55%, generics are taking share.

Novo Nordisk's adjusted gross margin fell from 82.7% a year earlier to 78.2% in the second quarter, while the company keeps spending around DKK 55 billion a year to expand capacity. Without one-off costs, can the gross margin recover above 80% in the third quarter?

The gross margin determines whether volume growth turns into profit and cash, and whether the company can sustain both dividends and buybacks. Novo Nordisk is trading price for volume, with the MFN agreement, patent expiry and the 2027 list price cut all pushing unit prices lower[5], while large API expansion projects such as Kalundborg come on line over the next several years[17]. The company paid DKK 35.31 billion of dividends in the first half[26], and the room for cash returns depends on whether margins hold.

The second-quarter margin decline included a one-off factor, but the improvement on the expense side may not last. The adjusted gross margin was 78.2%, which the company attributed to lower realised prices, one-time costs of about DKK 3 billion for right-sizing manufacturing capacity agreements and currency, partly offset by productivity gains and GLP-1 product mix[3]; adding back the one-time cost puts the margin at about 82%. Cost of goods sold was DKK 17.10 billion, 33% higher than DKK 12.85 billion a year earlier[13]. Adjusted operating profit of DKK 33.39 billion grew 11%, driven mainly by a 13% year-over-year drop in sales and distribution costs[3], but the company has said R&D and promotional spending will be higher in the second half than in the first[5]. Management said on the call that utilisation of the new capacity is still very low[32].

An alternative reading is that the margin decline is not a one-off. Continued unit price declines (US injectable Wegovy -22%) and depreciation on new capacity are hitting costs at the same time, so the margin excluding one-time costs could also drift lower quarter by quarter. The financial chain is that lower realised prices from MFN, patent expiry and rebates reduce net sales, depreciation on new capacity and capacity contract costs raise cost of goods sold, and together they set the adjusted gross margin and adjusted operating profit; the timing of rebate cash payments and capital expenditure then determines free cash flow[3][26]. Management also noted on the call that about DKK 5 billion of favourable gross-to-net effects in the second half of 2025 will not repeat, and together with patent expiry concentrated in the second half, this turns second-half year-over-year growth negative[32].

The third-quarter adjusted gross margin and cost of goods sold can directly separate the two readings. Readers should watch whether the adjusted gross margin returns above 80%, whether cost of goods sold falls back to about DKK 14 billion, whether adjusted sales growth lands within the -1.5% to -13.5% second-half range implied by full-year guidance, how much free cash flow the third quarter gives back, and whether the full-year 0% to -6% sales and operating profit guidance is maintained[4][5]. If the margin excluding one-time costs stays below 78%, lower prices and capacity costs are structurally compressing profitability; if third-quarter free cash flow is below DKK -10.3 billion, full-year cash flow guidance comes under pressure.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is the 2027 US list price cut and policy pricing. The company has announced that from January 1, 2027 it will lower the list price of Wegovy (injection and pill) and Ozempic to $675 per month, cuts of about 50% and 35% respectively, and said this will affect 2027 cash flow[5]. The exposure is the US business, with 2025 net sales of DKK 173.17 billion[14], and US rebate liabilities that depend heavily on estimates[19]. If the third-quarter report shows the list price cut is mostly offset by lower rebates with limited effect on net prices, this risk weakens.

The second risk comes from pipeline impairments and clinical failures. In the second quarter the company booked DKK 6.3 billion of intangible asset impairments, including DKK 4.0 billion for monlunabant[33]; the ZEUS cardiovascular trial of ziltivekimab missed its primary endpoint, and a US regulatory decision on high-dose CagriSema is due around the end of 2026[12]. Impairments are excluded from adjusted profit but reduce reported operating profit and EPS: second-quarter reported operating profit was DKK 27.06 billion against DKK 33.39 billion adjusted[25]. If the third quarter brings no new impairment above DKK 1 billion and the CagriSema regulatory timeline holds, the current understanding needs no revision.

The third risk is a faster decline in US obesity pricing. The MFN agreement, low prices in the Medicare Bridge programme and a rising self-pay share are compounding[29], and from 2026-10-01 CVS Caremark adds other weight-loss drugs to its largest commercial formularies[20], so injectable unit prices could fall faster than prescriptions grow. The exposure is second-quarter US obesity sales of DKK 12.82 billion, about 16% of the group, and their gross profit[8]. If US obesity sales grow at least 4% at CER in the third quarter and the injectable decline does not exceed 22%, this risk has not materialised[9].

The fourth risk is a larger-than-expected impact from international semaglutide patent expiry. After low-priced generics enter markets such as Canada and Brazil, Ozempic and Wegovy could lose price and share at the same time, with the impact concentrated in the second half of 2026 and carrying into 2027[10]. The exposure is International Operations, with second-quarter sales of DKK 37.62 billion or about 48% of the group, including EUCAN Ozempic of DKK 7.18 billion[8] and Emerging Markets GLP-1 diabetes of DKK 2.25 billion[30]. If International Operations grow at least 5% at CER in the third quarter and the company reiterates that the patent-expiry impact is modest, this risk is falsified.

The fifth risk is lower unit prices combined with capacity costs. Pricing policy and patent expiry keep pushing unit prices down while large new capacity brings depreciation, and management said utilisation of the new capacity is very low[32], so the gross margin may not return above 80%. The exposure is gross profit, which was DKK 61.39 billion in the second quarter; at second-quarter sales of DKK 78.49 billion, each percentage point of gross margin equals about DKK 0.78 billion of quarterly gross profit[2]. If the third-quarter adjusted gross margin is at least 80% with no new one-time costs, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• US pill versus injectable pricing: US obesity sales were DKK 12.82 billion in Q2, up 4% at CER. Watch whether growth stays at or above 4%; a year-over-year decline would show volume no longer offsets price.
• Wegovy pill sales and prescriptions: global pill sales were DKK 3.22 billion in Q2 and weekly prescriptions exceeded 265,000 in mid-July. If sales fall quarter over quarter while prescriptions rise, unit prices are dropping quickly.
• US injectable Wegovy: Q2 sales were DKK 9.64 billion, down 22%, with about 310,000 weekly prescriptions. A decline wider than 30% would deepen the pricing risk; a decline no worse than 22% would leave it unrealised.
• International Operations versus patent expiry: Q2 sales were DKK 37.62 billion, up 10%. Growth below 5%, and especially negative growth, would show patent expiry outpacing uptake.
• Emerging Markets GLP-1 diabetes and ex-US share: Q2 sales were DKK 2.25 billion, down 22%, and GLP-1 volume share outside the US was 58%. A share below 55% would show generics taking share.
• Gross margin and cost of goods sold: the Q2 adjusted gross margin was 78.2% and cost of goods sold DKK 17.10 billion. A margin of at least 80% with costs back near DKK 14 billion would support the one-off reading; a margin below 78% excluding one-time costs would point to structural pressure.
• Free cash flow and guidance: first-half free cash flow was DKK 55.30 billion against full-year guidance of DKK 45-55 billion. Third-quarter free cash flow below DKK -10.3 billion, or a change to the 0% to -6% guidance, would put the cash outlook under pressure.

Conclusion

Novo Nordisk's business is driven by semaglutide prescription volume and net prices after rebates, and it is now trading price for volume. In 2025 the company reported net sales of DKK 309.06 billion and operating profit of DKK 127.66 billion[18]; in the second quarter of 2026 sales returned to 7% growth at CER and adjusted operating profit grew 11%, but the adjusted gross margin fell to 78.2%[2]. The central unresolved relationship is whether volume growth from the US pill and international obesity drugs can offset lower unit prices from the MFN agreement, patent expiry and the 2027 list price cut without pushing the gross margin and free cash flow down a step[5].

Between the second-quarter report on August 4, 2026 and mid-October 2026, outside coverage consisted mainly of reports on the share price decline after the September 21 capital markets day and brokers' revisions to their views on the stock. That material either focused on share price judgments or could not be checked against verbatim source text, so no independent outside interpretation is included here, and none is assembled into a market view. Readers weighing the three debates should rely on the company's own quarterly disclosures.

The current understanding would strengthen materially if the third quarter showed all of the following together: US obesity sales growing at least 4% at CER with Wegovy pill sales above DKK 3.22 billion[8], International Operations growing at least 5%, the adjusted gross margin back above 80%, and the full-year 0% to -6% guidance unchanged[4]. Conversely, if US obesity turns to decline, International Operations turn negative, the margin excluding one-time costs stays below 78% and third-quarter free cash flow falls below DKK -10.3 billion, it would show that price cuts, patent expiry and capacity costs are pressing on revenue, profit and cash at the same time.

Sources

[1] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-16) · NVO 2026-11-04 call · 2026-10-16 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[2] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 financial highlights · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[3] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 gross margin and cost commentary · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[4] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · 2026 outlook raised to 0% to -6% · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[5] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · key modelling considerations and 2027 list price · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[6] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-16) · NVO quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-16 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-16) · NVO FY2026 · 2026-10-16 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 adjusted sales by area and product · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[9] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · US obesity care and Wegovy pill Q2 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[10] NVO Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · guidance and risks · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · employees and 2025 transformation · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[12] NVO Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · commercial and transformation highlights · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[13] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · condensed income statement Q2 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[14] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · sales by product, area and US gross-to-net 2025 · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[15] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · semaglutide patents and obesity care sales · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[16] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · market and competition · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[17] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · production sites and capacity expansion · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[18] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · consolidated financial facts 2023-2025 · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[19] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · US sales rebates and 340B critical audit matter · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[20] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · US Wegovy prescriptions and access Q2 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[21] NVO 20-F filed 2026-02-04 · trend information 2026 · 2026-02-04 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm

[22] NVO 6-K filed 2026-05-06 · Q1 2026 financial highlights · 2026-05-06 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000018/caq12026.htm

[23] NVO 6-K filed 2026-05-06 · 340B provision reversal · 2026-05-06 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000018/caq12026.htm

[24] NVO Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-06 · results and guidance · 2026-05-06 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[25] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 adjusted profit and loss · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[26] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · free cash flow and capital expenditure H1 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[27] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · US GLP-1 diabetes Q2 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[28] NVO Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · segment performance · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[29] NVO 6-K filed 2026-05-06 · MFN agreement and US Wegovy pill launch · 2026-05-06 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000018/caq12026.htm

[30] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · GLP-1 diabetes sales by area Q2 2026 · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[31] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · International Operations Wegovy pill launches · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm

[32] NVO Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · Q&A on second-half growth and capacity · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[33] NVO 6-K filed 2026-08-04 · adjusted reconciliation and impairments · 2026-08-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000023/caq22026.htm