[MT] ArcelorMittal: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Europe Steel Shipments Under the New EU Quota

ArcelorMittal is a steel and iron ore producer with 34 integrated and mini-mill steelmaking facilities in 14 countries, selling into about 126 countries, mainly to automotive, appliance, engineering, construction and machinery customers [1]. According to the earnings calendar, it reports on 2026-11-05 for 3Q 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) [2]. The latest disclosed quarter is 2Q 2026: sales of $16,761 million, EBITDA of $2,064 million or $155 per tonne of steel, and net income attributable to shareholders of $683 million, or $0.90 per share [3]; Europe shipped 7,138 thousand tonnes at an average selling price of $967 per tonne and earned EBITDA of $697 million [4]. In its July 30 outlook, management guided that third-quarter European shipments would be stable to slightly higher than in the second quarter, against the typical high-single-digit seasonal decline, that second-half shipments would exceed first-half shipments in every segment, and that full-year capex would stay at $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion [5]; on September 25 the company added that it could not safely restart Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine and would record a non-cash impairment of about $1 billion [6]. The Visible Alpha compilation the company published in a November 2 6-K (dated October 30, 12 brokers) puts third-quarter consensus EBITDA at $1,972 million, below the second quarter's actual $2,064 million and above the $1,508 million of 3Q 2025; consensus adjusted net income is $652 million and adjusted EPS is $0.84, both excluding the expected Ukraine impairment and excluding four brokers that had not yet updated for it [7][8].

Three things matter most in this ArcelorMittal Q3 2026 earnings report. The first is whether Europe can hold both shipments and margin per tonne in the first full quarter under the new import quota: the second-quarter gain came from a price-cost effect, and the company says order books turned positive year on year after July, so the third quarter has to show whether this is a lasting demand shift created by the quota or customers having stocked up before it took effect [4][5]. The second is whether North America and Mining can hold or recover profit: North American EBITDA rose to $488 million on the restored Mexican operations and higher prices [9], while Mining EBITDA fell to $179 million because heavy rain in Liberia left shipments behind production [10], and the third quarter will show whether each move is a durable recovery or a one-off swing. The third is whether cash flow can start reducing debt: working capital absorbed $1,981 million in the first half and net debt rose to $9,500 million at the end of June [11][12], the company says second-half cash generation should support buybacks and lower net debt [13], and the sign of third-quarter free cash flow and the direction of September net debt will decide whether that claim starts to hold.

Company Background and Business Structure

ArcelorMittal is a steel group spread widely across geographies and products, with about 125,554 employees at the end of 2025 [1], annual achievable crude steel capacity of about 74.6 million tonnes and 2025 steel shipments of 54.0 million tonnes [14]. Its portfolio has changed in several important ways over the past two years: in June 2025 it bought Nippon Steel's 50% stake in AM/NS Calvert and fully consolidated the plant, and it sold the Zenica steel plant and Prijedor iron ore mine in Bosnia [11]; in May 2026 it sold about 10% of Vallourec, with proceeds of about $667 million allocated entirely to buybacks [15]; and in September it told the Ukrainian government that Kryvyi Rih could not be safely restarted after four missile strikes in five weeks [6]. These changes altered, respectively, North America's consolidation scope, Europe's capacity mix and the group's cash and impairment profile.

The company reports six segments [16]. Europe is the largest flat steel producer in Europe, with operations from Spain to Romania making hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated sheet, tinplate, plate and long products, sold mainly to automotive, general industry and packaging customers, with 2025 sales of $28,793 million; North America covers flat, long and tubular operations in Canada, Mexico and the United States, serving automotive, energy, construction and appliance customers, with 2025 sales of $12,335 million and shipments of 10,283 thousand tonnes; Brazil includes flat, long and tubular operations in Brazil and neighbouring countries such as Argentina and Costa Rica, with 2025 sales of $11,172 million [16][17][18]. Sustainable Solutions had 2025 sales of $10,501 million; Mining, made up of AMMC in Canada and the Liberian iron ore mine, produced 35.3 million tonnes in 2025 with sales of $3,232 million, part of which supplies group steel plants, while external sales were $1,365 million [17][19][20]. The South African and Ukrainian operations sit under "Others" [17].

The India and JVs segment is another profit source for the group, but it is equity-accounted. ArcelorMittal holds 60% of AMNS India, and income from associates, joint ventures and other investments was $229 million in 2Q 2026, up from $177 million in the first quarter mainly because AMNS India improved; on a 100% basis AMNS India shipped 1,927 thousand tonnes and earned EBITDA of $257 million in the second quarter [21]. By end market, construction was about 20% of 2025 revenue and automotive and mobility about 17% [22], so group profit responds at once to European automotive and industrial demand, the North American tariff regime and construction cycles in emerging markets.

Financial History and Current Position

According to the 2025 annual report, group sales fell 1.7% from $62,441 million in 2024 to $61,352 million in 2025, mainly because the average steel selling price fell from $919 to $898 per tonne while steel shipments stayed broadly flat at 54.0 million tonnes [17]. Operating income in 2025 was $3,628 million, and North America's $2,205 million included a gain of about $1.9 billion from buying the remaining stake in Calvert [17][18]. Summing the quarterly tables, 2025 net income attributable to shareholders was $3,152 million, basic EPS was $4.13 and EBITDA was about $6,541 million; in 3Q 2025 sales were $15,657 million, EBITDA was $1,508 million ($111 per tonne) and adjusted EPS was $0.62 [8].

Cash flow was relatively stable in 2025, but leverage had already begun to rise by year end. Operating cash flow in 2025 was about $4.8 billion and capex about $4.3 billion, of which strategic growth projects accounted for $1.1 billion [23]; net debt at the end of the year was $7,931 million [24]. The 2025 quarterly cash pattern was clear: in the third quarter working capital still absorbed $417 million and free cash flow was −$538 million, while in the fourth quarter working capital released $2,383 million and free cash flow reached $1,725 million [25].

Profit improved in the first half of 2026, but working capital and capex absorbed the cash. First-quarter sales were $15,457 million with EBITDA of $1,679 million ($131 per tonne), second-quarter sales were $16,761 million with EBITDA of $2,064 million ($155 per tonne), and first-half EBITDA was $3,743 million, up 8.8% year on year [3][11]. Over the same period, foreign exchange and other net financing charges were $366 million and net interest expense was $269 million, so first-half net income attributable to shareholders was $1,258 million, below the adjusted $1,810 million of 1H 2025 [11]. First-half operating cash flow was $952 million after a working capital investment of $1,981 million, capex was $2,373 million and free cash flow was −$1,493 million; net debt rose to $9,500 million at the end of June, with gross debt of $14,421 million [11][12], liquidity stood at $10.4 billion, and first-half shareholder returns were about $0.7 billion ($0.2 billion of dividends and $0.5 billion of buybacks) [13].

Operating Model

Group revenue can be approximated as each steel segment's shipments multiplied by its average selling price, plus Mining's external sales. In 2025, 54.0 million tonnes of shipments at an average $898 per tonne made up most of the $61,352 million in sales [17]. On price, most sales are short-term orders that follow local steel prices, while automotive and other industrial customers hold longer-term contracts whose pricing lags the spot market [26]; on volume, shipments depend on local demand, import competition (the EU tariff rate quota and U.S. Section 232 tariffs) and the company's own blast furnace maintenance and restarts [27][28][4].

The key variable for operating income and EBITDA is the spread between selling prices and raw material costs, and that spread moves with a lag of several months. The annual report explains that in Europe and North America several months pass between buying raw materials and selling the steel made from them, and because raw materials are costed on an average basis, inventories must be worked through before a fall in input prices lowers operating costs, which leaves margins exposed to selling-price changes in the interim [26]. The company calls this the price-cost effect, which can widen or squeeze the spread between steel prices and raw material costs, and it defines EBITDA per tonne as EBITDA divided by steel shipments [29]. Mining profit depends on shipments multiplied by a realized price linked to the 62% Fe iron ore reference price, less cash costs and freight; the reference price averaged $101.9 per tonne in 2025, down from $109.6 in 2024 [20]. Joint ventures such as AMNS India are included in proportion to ownership, 2026 depreciation guidance is about $3.0 billion and net interest about $550 million, and foreign exchange results follow the dollar's move against the euro [11][21].

Cash flow is set by profit, working capital and capex together, and working capital is strongly seasonal. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow less capex less dividends paid to minority shareholders [29]; when prices and shipments rise, inventories and receivables absorb cash, usually in the first half, and they are usually released in the fourth quarter [25][30]. Capex guidance for 2026 is $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, including $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion of strategic projects [5]. Shareholder returns consist of a quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share plus buybacks of at least 50% of post-dividend free cash flow, and the Vallourec proceeds have also been allocated to buybacks [13][31][15], so the direction of third-quarter cash flow passes straight through to net debt and the pace of repurchases.

Industry and Competitive Position

European steel is constrained by import pressure and low utilization, and policy tools are now changing that structure. EU import penetration was 20% in 2022, fell to 19% in 2023, returned to 20% in 2024 and rose to about 21% in 2025 as imports were front-loaded ahead of CBAM and the new trade tools [27]; the tariff rate quota mechanism the European Commission presented in October 2025 aims to lift industry utilization from the roughly 65% reported by Eurofer back to healthy levels of 80–85% [32]. The company believes that CBAM, which imposes a carbon cost on imports, together with the quota implemented on July 1 can support higher domestic capacity utilization, and that more granular country-specific quotas and "Melt & Pour" origin requirements could further strengthen the system [33][5].

In North America, competition is shaped by U.S. tariffs, and their effect on the company runs in two directions. Since June 2025 the Section 232 measures have imposed a 50% tariff on all steel imports, and the annual report says they weigh on the North America segment through both costs and Canadian and Mexican local pricing, and also hurt the Brazil segment's exports; the company's export sales to the U.S. were $6.9 billion in 2025 [28]. At the same time, with Calvert fully consolidated, the company's U.S. flat steel capacity benefits directly from tariff-protected prices [18].

The company's competitive advantages come mainly from geographic and product diversity, partial iron ore self-sufficiency and a set of growth projects now reaching delivery. In Europe it is the largest flat steel producer [16]; in Mining, the Liberian expansion to 20 million tonnes a year, blending new concentrate into a sinter feed above 62% Fe, is expected to add $450 million of EBITDA, of which about $0.2 billion was captured in 2025, while the new 1.1 million tonne electric arc furnace at Gijón and the Sestao expansion in Spain are both scheduled for the second half of 2026 [34]. The company expects these projects and completed acquisitions together to raise EBITDA potential by about $1.8 billion [5]. The limit of the available comparison is that current disclosures cover only the company's own segment data, so peers' margins and cost curves cannot be compared on the same basis, and the assessment of competitive position relies mainly on the company's own description of markets and policy.

Core Debates

After the EU's new steel import quota took effect in July, can ArcelorMittal's European business hold third-quarter shipments flat against the usual seasonal dip without giving back its margin gains?

Europe is the company's largest business, and the third quarter is the first full quarter in which the new trade rules can show up in the financial numbers. European sales in 2025 were $28,793 million, about 47% of group sales [17], but the region has long been squeezed by imports, with industry utilization of only about 65% [32]. The company treats CBAM and the quota as a structural reset of the European market and on that basis restarted the Dąbrowa blast furnace on April 28 and the Fos blast furnace, idle since September 2023 [33][4], so whether shipments and margin per tonne hold together directly decides whether that judgement is borne out.

Second-quarter data support an improvement, but its source still has two explanations. European shipments were 7,138 thousand tonnes, broadly flat with 7,108 thousand tonnes in the first quarter; the average selling price was $967 per tonne, up 3.9% sequentially, and EBITDA was $697 million, up 39.3% and about $98 per tonne, which the company attributed to a positive price-cost effect [4]. The 3Q 2025 comparison is shipments of 7,001 thousand tonnes, a price of $915 per tonne and EBITDA of $513 million (about $73 per tonne), while in 1Q 2026 the price was $931 per tonne and EBITDA $501 million [35]. The company says order books turned positive year on year after the quota took effect and that third-quarter shipments will be stable to slightly higher [4][5]; the alternative explanation is that part of the second-quarter price rise came from restocking and advance buying before the quota, so customers may first work down inventory after July and prices and shipments may not both hold.

The financial transmission of this debate runs from restricted imports to orders shifting locally, higher utilization and fixed costs spread over more tonnes. Once the quota compresses duty-free imports and CBAM adds a carbon cost to them, automotive, general industry and distribution customers shift orders to domestic mills, the company lifts utilization by restarting blast furnaces, shipments hold or rise against the season and fixed costs are spread more thinly; at the same time lower imports support prices, and as long as price increases outpace iron ore, coking coal and carbon allowance costs, the price-cost effect is positive and European EBITDA and EBITDA per tonne rise [26][35]. The risk in the opposite direction is that if imports still arrive in large volumes within the quota, or automotive and other demand is weak, the restarted furnaces push up inventory and unit costs, and the lag in average-cost accounting extends the margin squeeze for several months.

In the third quarter the combination of shipments, price and profit is what matters. If European shipments are at least about 6,850 thousand tonnes and management keeps its "stable to slightly higher" call, the price holds at $967 per tonne and EBITDA exceeds about $599 million, the explanation that the quota is shifting demand is strengthened; crude steel output after the Fos restart and whether the Gijón furnace starts up on schedule in the second half are the supporting capacity signals [4][34]. If shipments fall more than 4% and the company blames demand or imports, the quota's volume effect has not materialized; if shipments hold but price and EBITDA fall, the extra volume was bought with lower prices.

With Mexican operations restored and U.S. tariffs lifting steel prices, can ArcelorMittal's North American business keep its second-quarter profit gains?

North America is the company's second-largest profit source, and the third quarter has to separate an improvement driven by restored operations from one driven by a price peak. North American EBITDA was $488 million in 2Q 2026, about a quarter of group EBITDA [9][3]. In 2025 the business was hit at once by the 50% Section 232 tariff and Mexican outages: the Mexican long products blast furnace was down for maintenance in the second half of 2025 until its restart in late January 2026, and the Lázaro Cárdenas DRI plant suffered an unplanned outage in 3Q 2025 [18].

The second-quarter improvement came from both volume and price. North American shipments were 2,831 thousand tonnes, up 7.9% sequentially, the average selling price was $1,161 per tonne, up 6.7%, and EBITDA was $488 million, up 27.4% (about $172 per tonne), which the company attributed to a positive price-cost effect and higher shipments; crude steel output was 2,202 thousand tonnes and Mexican long operations had fully recovered [9]. By comparison, in 3Q 2025 North America shipped 2,615 thousand tonnes at $1,102 per tonne and earned EBITDA of only $300 million (about $115 per tonne), with crude steel output of 1,662 thousand tonnes, while 1Q 2026 EBITDA was $383 million [36]. On the first-quarter call, management said the Section 232 and USMCA renegotiation headwinds remained [37]; the alternative explanation is that part of the second quarter's high price reflected a temporary peak in U.S. steel prices, and if prices fall in the third quarter while tariff costs stay the same, the Canadian and Mexican plants will be squeezed first.

North American profit passes through tariffs, prices and output at the same time. The 50% tariff raises the price of imported steel in the U.S., lifting prices for domestic capacity such as Calvert, but exports from the Canadian and Mexican plants into the U.S. must bear the tariff or be diverted to local markets, which depresses local prices [28]; with the Mexican long products blast furnace and DRI plant back in operation, output and shipments recover, unit fixed costs fall, the spread between price and raw material cost widens and North American EBITDA rises [9]. In the opposite case, lower U.S. steel prices, higher tariff costs or another Mexican outage would all compress the spread, and because of the raw material cost lag, a price decline would reach profit before costs fall [26].

The third-quarter test is whether North American EBITDA holds above $436 million and stays ahead of the $300 million of 3Q 2025. It also matters whether shipments are at least about 2,728 thousand tonnes and whether management keeps its view that second-half shipments will exceed the first half [5], how the average price moves against $1,161 per tonne, and whether the Mexican operations run steadily with crude steel output near 2,200 thousand tonnes. If EBITDA falls below $436 million and the company blames tariffs or steel prices, the improvement looks more like a price peak; if Mexico suffers another outage and crude steel output falls, the operational recovery itself is not stable.

Liberia's expanded mine is producing more ore, but weather stalled second-quarter shipments. Can ArcelorMittal move the backlog in the third quarter and lift mining profit again?

Mining is a small share of revenue, yet it is the group's highest-margin business and the one most dependent on an expansion being delivered. Mining sales were $3,232 million in 2025, about 5% of the group, but operating income was $789 million [17]; the second phase of the Liberian expansion is expected to add $450 million of EBITDA, of which only about $0.2 billion was captured in 2025 [34]. Mining EBITDA fell from $299 million in the first quarter to $179 million in the second because shipments lagged production [10], so whether the third quarter catches up tests the real pace of the ramp-up.

Production and shipments moved in opposite directions in the second quarter. Mining iron ore production was 10.1 million tonnes, up 22% year on year, which the company attributed to operational improvements in Liberia and the concentrator ramp-up; shipments were only 9.4 million tonnes, below production, which the company explained by shipment delays from heavy rainfall in Liberia and weather constraints at AMMC's port, while the fall in EBITDA reflected lower shipments and higher freight costs [10]. The 3Q 2025 comparison is production of 8.5 million tonnes, shipments of 8.2 million tonnes and EBITDA of $209 million [38]. In the 2025 annual report the company said Liberian shipments would exceed 18 million tonnes in 2026, while the second-quarter release said the guidance remains at 18 million tonnes [19][10]; the alternative explanation is that Liberia's rail and port capacity has not yet caught up with expanded production, so the shipment gap will persist.

Mining profit is transmitted first through rising production and then through shipments that turn production into revenue. As the second-phase concentrator in Liberia ramps up, production rises and the product mix shifts from direct shipping ore to a sinter feed blend above 62% Fe, improving the realized price [34][19]; if ore held back by weather in the second quarter ships in the third, shipments multiplied by the gap between realized price and cash cost plus freight will recover, and Mining EBITDA with it. In the opposite case, a longer rainy season, port or rail bottlenecks, or adverse moves in the 62% Fe reference price and freight would depress both shipments and profit per tonne [20].

In the third quarter the question is whether shipments catch up with production and profit returns to a middle level. Specifically, it matters whether Mining shipments are at least about 9.7 million tonnes and catch up with second-quarter production of 10.1 million tonnes, whether Mining EBITDA returns above $239 million, whether the company reaffirms the 18 million tonne Liberian shipment guidance and completes concentrator commissioning, and how the 62% Fe reference price and freight move in the quarter. If shipments again fall short of production, Liberia's logistics bottleneck is persistent; if the 18 million tonne guidance is cut, the pace of the expansion has to be reassessed.

After working capital absorbed nearly $2 billion in the first half and net debt rose to $9.5 billion, can ArcelorMittal start bringing debt down with third-quarter cash flow?

Shareholder returns are tied directly to cash, so the path of net debt determines whether buybacks can continue. The company pays a quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share, uses at least 50% of post-dividend free cash flow for buybacks and has allocated the roughly $667 million of Vallourec proceeds to repurchases [13][31][15]. First-half 2026 free cash flow was −$1,493 million and net debt rose from $7,931 million at the start of the year to $9,500 million [11][12]; the company says healthy second-half cash generation should support continued returns and lower net debt [13], and whether third-quarter cash turns positive decides whether that claim begins to hold.

Second-quarter cash flow was already better than the first quarter's but still negative. Operating cash flow was $961 million after a $457 million working capital investment, capex was $1,102 million and free cash flow was −$152 million; buybacks in the quarter were $483 million [30], and net debt rose from $9,311 million at the end of March to $9,500 million [12]. First-half working capital investment was $1,981 million, above the $1,491 million of 1H 2025 [11]. The 2025 pattern was a $417 million working capital outflow and free cash flow of −$538 million in the third quarter, with a concentrated $2,383 million release only in the fourth [25]; the alternative explanation is that higher steel prices and shipments in the second half keep working capital absorbing cash in the third quarter, so the cash improvement waits for the fourth.

Cash is transmitted through working capital that first absorbs and then releases cash, and is finally distributed through buybacks and debt reduction. When prices and shipments rise, receivables and inventories may still absorb cash in the third quarter and are usually released in the fourth; operating cash flow less capex (guided at $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion for 2026, with $2,373 million already spent in the first half) and minority dividends equals free cash flow [5][29]. At least half of post-dividend free cash flow goes to buybacks, and the rest, together with disposal proceeds, reduces net debt [31]. The roughly $1 billion impairment from idling Kryvyi Rih is non-cash and affects profit only, not cash directly [6].

The third-quarter test is the sign of free cash flow and the direction of September net debt. Specifically, it matters whether free cash flow turns positive and how it compares with −$538 million a year earlier, whether the working capital outflow exceeds $500 million, whether September net debt is below the $9,500 million of June, and whether capex falls within about $1,063 million to $1,313 million with full-year guidance maintained. If free cash flow is negative and net debt keeps rising, second-half deleveraging depends entirely on the fourth quarter; if capex guidance is raised or buybacks slow, the priority order of cash allocation has changed.

Risks and Falsifiers

Idling Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine will open a clear gap between reported and adjusted third-quarter profit and may bring later cash costs. The company announced that Kryvyi Rih could not be safely restarted after four missile strikes in five weeks that killed five people and injured 17, and that it would record a non-cash impairment of about $1 billion, mainly on property, plant and equipment; since the war began it has provided more than $700 million of support to the subsidiary [6]. In 2025 the subsidiary's mines and steel plant ran at only 73% and 35% of capacity, respectively [39]. If the third-quarter impairment matches the announced amount of about $1 billion and the company discloses no additional cash commitments or other asset impairments, the current understanding that this risk affects book profit only is confirmed.

Exchange rates and financing costs make net income more volatile than EBITDA. In the first half of 2026 the dollar rose 3.0% against the euro, foreign exchange and other net financing charges were $366 million against income of $123 million a year earlier, and net interest expense was $269 million against full-year guidance of about $550 million [11]. Together the two items come to about $635 million, set against first-half EBITDA of $3,743 million, and they are the largest source of the gap between net income and operating profit [11]. If third-quarter foreign exchange and other net financing charges come back within $100 million and net interest is in line with the roughly $550 million full-year guidance, this risk has not grown.

The EU quota's volume effect could fall short, and the second-quarter price-cost gain could be given back. In the risk case, customers stocked up before the quota took effect and work down inventory in the third quarter, the restarted furnaces raise unit costs and inventory, and prices fall as imports return or demand weakens [27][26]. On second-quarter shipments of about 7,138 thousand tonnes, every $10 per tonne fall in the average selling price cuts quarterly sales by about $71 million; if European EBITDA fell from $697 million back to the first quarter's $501 million, the quarterly gap would be about $196 million [4]. If third-quarter European shipments are at least 7,138 thousand tonnes and EBITDA is at least $697 million, this risk is falsified [5].

If U.S. steel prices fall from their peak, North America's price-cost effect could turn negative while the 50% Section 232 tariff keeps weighing on Canadian and Mexican supply into the U.S. [28][37]. On second-quarter shipments of about 2,831 thousand tonnes, every $10 per tonne fall in the average selling price cuts quarterly sales by about $28 million; if North American EBITDA fell back to the first quarter's $383 million, the quarterly gap would be about $105 million [9]. Another operational problem in Mexico would raise unit costs at the same time [18]. If North American EBITDA is at least $488 million in both the third and fourth quarters and crude steel output stays above 2,200 thousand tonnes, this risk is falsified.

Liberia's logistics may not keep up with the expansion, leaving Mining profit unable to return to first-quarter levels. In the risk case, the rainy-season drag persists, shipments stay below production and iron ore prices or freight move adversely; Mining EBITDA fell from $299 million in the first quarter to $179 million in the second, a quarterly gap of about $120 million [10], and about half of the $450 million EBITDA contribution from Liberia's second phase is still to be captured [34]. If third-quarter Mining shipments are at least 10.1 million tonnes, EBITDA is at least $239 million and the company reaffirms the 18 million tonne guidance, this risk is falsified.

Working capital could keep absorbing cash in the third quarter, pushing net debt up for a third consecutive quarter. In the risk case, higher shipments and prices tie up more inventory and receivables while full-year capex of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion and ongoing buybacks continue, leaving shareholder returns dependent on the seasonal fourth-quarter release [5][30]. Net debt was $9,500 million at the end of June, about $1,569 million higher than at the start of the year; every additional $100 million of third-quarter working capital absorption raises net debt by about $100 million [12]. If third-quarter free cash flow is positive and September net debt is below $9,500 million, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• Europe after the quota: shipments, price and EBITDA against 2Q 2026 levels of 7,138 thousand tonnes, $967 per tonne and $697 million. Shipments of at least about 6,850 thousand tonnes with EBITDA above about $599 million strengthen the case; a shipment drop of more than 4%, or falling price and EBITDA, weakens it.
• European capacity restarts: Fos restarted at the end of July and the Gijón furnace is scheduled for the second half of 2026. On-time start-up with rising output strengthens the case; delays or rising inventory weaken it.
• North American profit: EBITDA, shipments and price against $488 million, 2,831 thousand tonnes and $1,161 per tonne. EBITDA of at least $436 million strengthens the case; EBITDA below $436 million blamed on tariffs or steel prices weakens it.
• Mexican operations: crude steel output against 2,202 thousand tonnes. Output near 2,200 thousand tonnes strengthens the case; another outage weakens it.
• Liberian shipment catch-up: Mining shipments of 9.4 million tonnes against production of 10.1 million tonnes and EBITDA of $179 million. Shipments of at least about 9.7 million tonnes with EBITDA back above $239 million strengthen the case; shipments again below production, or a cut to the 18 million tonne guidance, weaken it.
• Cash and deleveraging: second-quarter free cash flow of −$152 million and June net debt of $9,500 million. Positive free cash flow with net debt below $9,500 million strengthens the case; negative free cash flow with rising net debt weakens it.
• Ukraine impairment: the announced non-cash charge of about $1 billion. A matching amount with no additional commitments confirms the current view; new cash commitments weaken it.

Conclusion

ArcelorMittal's profit is driven by three sets of variables: shipments in Europe and North America multiplied by the spread between selling prices and raw material costs, Mining shipments multiplied by the realized iron ore price, and the seasonal cash absorbed by working capital and capex. Group EBITDA reached $2,064 million in 2Q 2026, or $155 per tonne, with both Europe and North America improving on a positive price-cost effect [3][4][9], but first-half free cash flow was −$1,493 million and June net debt rose to $9,500 million [11][12]. The most important unresolved relationship is whether the EU quota can turn the second quarter's price gain into durable shipments and margin per tonne, and whether that profit can start turning into debt-reducing cash in the third quarter.

Between the second-quarter release on July 30, 2026 and November 3, the searchable news focused on the Ukraine idling, talks to sell the South African subsidiary, investment in Brazil, a cloud computing partnership and shareholding changes, and the search found no independent outside assessment of the company's operating outlook, so no outside view is included here. This means the four debates, the quota's effect in Europe, the durability of North American profit, the Liberian shipment catch-up and cash-funded deleveraging, can for now be tested only against the company's own disclosures and outlook, without an independent third-party reading of the same data.

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter European shipments holding flat against the season, prices staying near $967 per tonne and EBITDA above about $599 million, North American EBITDA holding above $436 million, Mining shipments catching up with production and EBITDA back above $239 million, positive free cash flow with September net debt below $9,500 million, and a Ukraine impairment in line with the announced amount of about $1 billion [6]. Conversely, if European shipments fall more than 4% or price and profit fall together, North American profit slides with steel prices, Liberian shipments keep lagging, and working capital pushes net debt up for a third consecutive quarter, the second-quarter improvement would look more like a price peak combined with an inventory cycle than a structural change brought by the new trade rules.

Sources

[1] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar MT updated 2026-11-03 · 2026-11-03 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results group table · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[4] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results Europe · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[5] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results outlook · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[6] MT 6-K filed 2026-09-25 Kryvyi Rih idling · 2026-09-25 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000084/exhibit99192526.htm

[7] MT 6-K filed 2026-11-02 3Q 2026 sell-side consensus · 2026-11-02 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000095/exhibit99111226.htm

[8] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results quarterly group table · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[9] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results North America · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[10] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results Mining · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[11] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results first-half analysis · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[12] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results net debt · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[13] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[14] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 capacity · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[15] MT 6-K filed 2026-05-19 Vallourec sell-down · 2026-05-19 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000044/exhibit99151926.htm

[16] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 segment structure · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[17] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 segment results · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[18] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 North America · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[19] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 Mining · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[20] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 iron ore prices · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[21] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results India and JVs · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[22] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 end markets · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[23] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 cash flow · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[24] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 net debt · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[25] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results quarterly cash flow · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[26] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 pricing and price-cost lag · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[27] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 EU import penetration · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[28] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 Section 232 · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[29] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results definitions · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[30] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results cash flow statement · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[31] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 capital return policy · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[32] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 EU tariff rate quota · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm

[33] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results Europe trade outlook · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[34] MT 6-K filed 2026-07-30 2Q 2026 results strategic projects · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm

[35] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results Europe quarterly · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[36] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results North America quarterly · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[37] MT Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-01 · 2026-05-01 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[38] MT 6-K filed 2026-04-30 1Q 2026 results Mining quarterly · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000036/a1q26earningsrelease.htm

[39] MT 20-F filed 2026-03-06 Ukraine · 2026-03-06 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm