Daily ideas

Carrier's Q2 2026 sales rose 4% to $6.35B while gross margin fell 170 bps; Q3 earnings test whether an $8B-plus backlog turns into revenue on schedule.

Canadian Natural produced 1,676,754 BOE/d in Q2 2026 and cut net debt to C$14.5 billion; Q3 tests whether oil sands output and debt reduction hold through the Horizon turnaround.

Coinbase's Q2 2026 revenue fell 18.5% to $1.22B as retail spot volume dropped 24%; Q3 earnings test whether prediction markets and USDC can offset the trading slump.

Old Dominion cut its Q2 2026 operating ratio to 70.1% as revenue rose 10.4% with tons still down 4.1%; Q3 earnings test whether volume or fuel surcharges drive margins.

D.R. Horton posted a 20.7% Q3 home sales gross margin and $880.8 million of nine-month operating cash; Q4 earnings test whether margin holds 20.5% as buybacks hit $3.25B.

Datadog grew Q2 2026 revenue 36% to $1.12 billion at a 23% non-GAAP margin; Q3 earnings show whether the rest of the business offsets its largest customer's usage cut.

Dominion Energy's Virginia utility earned $670M in Q2 2026, up 22% on new base rates; Q3 earnings test whether that gain outruns rising PJM capacity costs and CVOW delays.

Walmart's Q2 operating income rose 28.8% on a $2.9 billion tariff refund while US transactions slowed to 1.5%; Q3 tests whether price rollbacks hold traffic and profit without that refund.

L3Harris grew Q2 2026 revenue 8% to $5.88B with a record $42B backlog; Q3 tests whether that backlog can deliver the ~$2.4B of second-half free cash flow its guide needs.

McKesson grew Q1 FY2027 revenue 8% to $105.4 billion and adjusted EPS 20% to $9.93; Q2 earnings test whether drug distribution margin gains outlast launch timing.

Ferrovial's H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 21.6% like-for-like to EUR 746 million on toll pricing; Q3 tests whether price can keep offsetting falling traffic.

Xcel Energy grew first-half 2026 ongoing EPS 16% to $1.84 as debt hit 62% of capital; Q3 tests whether rider recovery keeps outrunning interest costs and dilution.

Centene cut its Q2 2026 benefit ratio to 89.6% and lifted 2026 EPS guidance above $4.80; Q3 earnings test whether a ~5% Medicaid rate gain holds a 93.5% ratio.

Ventas grew Q2 2026 Normalized FFO 9% to $0.97 a share as SHOP same-store NOI rose 16%; Q3 earnings test whether the selling season and $4.5B of deals sustain it.

Carvana sold 197,325 retail units in Q2 2026, up 37.7%, with $769 million of adjusted EBITDA; Q3 earnings test whether inventory catch-up keeps units rising.

Santander Brasil's 2Q26 recurring profit fell 17.6% to R$3.0 billion as loan losses jumped 20.6%; Q3 tests whether cost of risk falls back from 3.81%.

Williams grew Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 6% to US$1.921 billion as Transco's rate lift faded; Q3 tests whether expansions, Haynesville and Socrates keep growth on plan.