[LHX] L3Harris: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Backlog Conversion and Cash Flow
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Summary
L3Harris grew Q2 2026 revenue 8% to $5.88B with a record $42B backlog; Q3 tests whether that backlog can deliver the ~$2.4B of second-half free cash flow its guide needs.
L3Harris is a large US defense systems supplier that sells satellites, tactical communications, electronic warfare equipment and solid rocket motors to the US government and allied nations, and US government customers accounted for 75% of its FY2025 revenue[1]. Third quarter 2026 (three months ending October 2, 2026) is the period L3Harris will cover on its earnings call scheduled for 2026-10-29[2], so the L3Harris Q3 2026 earnings will test how much of a record backlog is turning into revenue and cash. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026 ended July 3, revenue was $5.881 billion, up 8%, operating margin was 11.1%, segment operating margin was 16.0%, GAAP diluted EPS was $3.13, up 28%, and free cash flow was $771 million[3]; orders were $7.3 billion, book-to-bill was 1.2 and backlog rose to a record $42 billion[4]. In July the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $23.2-$23.7 billion and its GAAP EPS guidance to $11.80-$12.00 while holding segment operating margin at "low 16%" and free cash flow at $3.0 billion[3], and it reaffirmed that guidance on August 17, the same day it announced a CEO change[5]. The third-quarter consensus compiled by the Drillr earnings calendar is EPS of $2.942 and revenue of $5.932 billion, and the two prior quarters' actual values were recorded on a GAAP basis[6].
Three things matter most in this report. The first is backlog conversion at Space & Mission Systems (SMS): SMS revenue grew 15% in the first half, and the $501 million increase in ISR was tied to a material-procurement milestone on classified contracts[7], while full-year SMS revenue guidance of $11.7 billion implies about $2.87 billion per quarter in the second half[8]; whether the third quarter holds that level with a margin above 9% decides whether July's higher revenue guide is achievable. The second is whether Missile Solutions (MSL) turns expansion into deliveries: management says the retained business will grow at least in the high teens every year[8], the retained business grew 16% in the second quarter[9] and the segment margin was 12.3%[10], and with commercial space propulsion being divested and expansion costs rising, those figures set the payback pace on a roughly $3 billion capacity buildout[5]. The third is second-half cash collection: first-half free cash flow was only $584 million[3], the $3.0 billion full-year guide requires about $2.4 billion in the second half, and by July 3 contract assets plus receivables had already risen $687 million from the start of the year[11]; whether third-quarter cash keeps up determines the room for buybacks, dividends and debt repayment, and this is also the first quarterly report under new CEO Sam Mehta[12].
Company Background and Business Structure
L3Harris was built through a series of acquisitions and divestitures, and since 2026 it reports in three segments. The company acquired solid rocket motor maker Aerojet Rocketdyne in 2023, paying $6.688 billion in cash for acquired businesses that year[13], and it completed the sale of its commercial aviation business in March 2025[14]. Starting in fiscal 2026, it streamlined four segments into three: SMS, Communications & Spectrum Dominance (CSD) and MSL[15].
SMS is the largest segment, with first-half 2026 revenue of $5.956 billion[16], and it combines missile warning and defense satellites, maritime, special-mission aircraft and other defense and civil government programs[15]. Its revenue comes from long-cycle contracts such as ISR missionized aircraft, classified space, FAA air traffic communications and F-35 equipment[7], which recognize revenue on a cost-to-cost basis, so revenue first appears as unbilled contract assets[17].
CSD brings together the company's resilient communications and electronic warfare capabilities[15], with first-half revenue of $3.798 billion[16]. It sells software-defined tactical radios, data links and electronic warfare equipment, and its second-quarter growth came mainly from radio deliveries to international customers and higher electronic warfare and data link revenue[18][9]; company-wide, international revenue was 23% of the total in the second quarter, up 250 basis points in a year[9].
MSL unites propulsion, hypersonics and other advanced missile technologies[15], with first-half revenue of $2.044 billion[16], and it supplies solid rocket motors and critical components to programs such as PAC-3, THAAD, Tomahawk and Standard Missile[19]. In April 2026 the Department of War invested $1 billion in MSL through a convertible preferred security, while L3Harris keeps more than 80% ownership and continues to consolidate MSL[19].
The commercial space divestiture changes how MSL is measured. L3Harris agreed with AE Industrial Partners to contribute its commercial space propulsion, power and related businesses to a new company, in which AE Industrial takes a roughly 60% controlling stake at a net enterprise value of $825 million, while L3Harris keeps a 40% noncontrolling interest and records its share of results under the equity method in "non-service FAS pension income and other," below operating income[20]. On the July call, management said the business would be divested in August 2026 and that full-year MSL guidance had been adjusted to remove it[9].
Financial History and Current Position
The annual report shows that L3Harris revenue stepped up after the Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition but growth has since slowed. Revenue was $19.419 billion, $21.325 billion and $21.865 billion in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025, and GAAP operating income was $1.426 billion, $1.918 billion and $2.110 billion; FY2025 operating margin was about 9.7%, net income was $1.606 billion and diluted EPS was $8.53[21]. Under the old four-segment structure, FY2025 segment operating income totaled $3.366 billion, including $1.432 billion from the former CS segment at a margin of about 25.2%[22].
FY2025 operating cash flow covered capital spending and shareholder returns, with the remainder going to debt repayment. Operating cash flow was $3.106 billion, capital expenditures were $424 million, buybacks were $1.154 billion and dividends were $903 million[13]. Contractual backlog was $38.7 billion on January 2, 2026, of which $26.9 billion was funded[23]; on the same date, long-term debt net of the current portion was $10.443 billion and cash and equivalents were $1.069 billion[24].
Revenue and profit accelerated clearly in the first half of 2026, but cash generation was concentrated in the second quarter. First-quarter revenue was $5.744 billion and GAAP EPS was $2.72, but operating cash flow was negative $95 million and free cash flow was negative $187 million[25]; second-quarter revenue was $5.881 billion, operating income was $654 million and the effective tax rate was 15.5%[3]. First-half revenue totaled $11.625 billion, up about 10%, GAAP EPS was $5.85 and free cash flow was $584 million[3].
The July 3 balance sheet shows more cash but a sharp rise in debt due within a year. Cash and equivalents were $1.521 billion, the current portion of long-term debt was $1.815 billion (versus $673 million at the start of the year) and long-term debt net was $9.184 billion[11]. In the first half the company repurchased $525 million of stock and paid $470 million in dividends[3], leaving $1.7 billion of repurchase authorization, while the $973 million in net proceeds from the Department of War preferred stock went to MSL expansion[14].
The company raised its full-year guidance in July and reaffirmed it in August. Revenue guidance rose $200 million to $23.2-$23.7 billion, implying organic growth of 8% to 10%, on stronger SMS performance and the AMDT-3 win; EPS guidance rose $0.40 to $11.80-$12.00 after absorbing a roughly $0.20 headwind from the commercial space propulsion divestiture; and net interest expense guidance fell $30 million to about $560 million[8]. The company anticipates full-year operating cash flow of about $3.6 billion and capital expenditures of about $600 million[26]; subtracting first-half actuals from full-year guidance implies second-half revenue of $11.575-$12.075 billion, EPS of $5.95-$6.15 and free cash flow of about $2.416 billion[3].
Operating Model
Consolidated revenue depends on how fast the three segments convert backlog. Second-quarter revenue equals SMS at $2.966 billion, CSD at $1.943 billion and MSL at $1.054 billion, less $82 million of intersegment eliminations[16]; contractual backlog was $42.0 billion on July 3, and the company anticipates recognizing about 40% as revenue over the next 12 months and 65% over the next 24 months[27]. SMS long-cycle contracts use cost-to-cost recognition, so cost incurred in a quarter becomes revenue in that quarter[17], CSD revenue moves with radio delivery volume[18], and MSL revenue moves with propulsion production and development volume[28].
Operating income depends on the segment margin mix and corporate deductions. Second-quarter segment operating income was $942 million, with SMS at $290 million[3] and a 9.8% margin[29], CSD at $522 million and a 26.9% margin[30], and MSL at $130 million and a 12.3% margin[10]; after $288 million of unallocated corporate items, operating income was $654 million[3]. Corporate depreciation and amortization of $210 million in the quarter was the main component of the unallocated items[31], and below operating income the quarter also had $185 million of pension and other income and $129 million of net interest expense[16]. As a result, a rising SMS revenue share dilutes the consolidated margin, while changes in the CSD margin have the largest effect on EPS.
Net EAC adjustments and one-off gains can push segment margins up or down. In the second quarter SMS had $34 million of net favorable EAC adjustments, including a net $30 million increase in unfavorable adjustments on two programs, plus a $23 million investment gain[7]; CSD included a $16 million investment gain[18]; and MSL had a $39 million asset-sale gain and a $31 million unfavorable EAC adjustment in the first quarter[28]. In the second quarter of 2025, SMS and CSD recorded asset-sale gains of $75 million and $17 million[7][18], which have to be excluded in year-over-year comparisons.
Cash flow lags profit and is concentrated in the second half. The government is billed by progress, milestone or delivery, so revenue is first recorded as a contract asset, becomes a receivable when billed and is then collected, while customer advances are recorded as contract liabilities[17]. Operating cash flow was negative $95 million in the first quarter of 2026[25] and recovered to $879 million in the second quarter, which the company attributed to higher net income and working capital timing[26]; in April management already said full-year cash generation would be weighted to the back half[32]. Free cash flow equals operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, and MSL's share of the roughly $600 million capital budget is rising[26][31].
Industry and Competitive Position
L3Harris competes in a field where large defense primes and non-traditional contractors operate side by side. The annual report lists its main competitors as BAE Systems, Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and Thales, plus non-traditional defense contractors, and the company often competes with a rival on one program while acting as its subcontractor or partner on another[33]. The annual report also acknowledges that some competitors are larger and spend more on R&D, and the company supplements its software and AI capabilities through partners such as Palantir and Shield Capital[33].
The company has a verifiable position in missile tracking satellites and solid rocket motors, but comparable data are limited. Management said the company was selected for the US Space Force AMDT-3 constellation and is the only company awarded all five missile tracking-related contracts[34]; the purpose of the Department of War's MSL investment is to expand critical capacity in the defense industrial base[35], and the money will fund solid rocket motor plants in Camden, Huntsville, Orange and other sites[19]. Because the company does not disclose individual program margins or segment-level international revenue, and directly comparable peer segment data are lacking, relative competitiveness can only be inferred from orders and backlog.
Core Debates
SMS grew revenue 15% in the first half, partly on a material-procurement milestone; can its $22.4 billion backlog sustain roughly $2.9 billion of quarterly revenue and a margin above 9% in the third quarter?
SMS revenue conversion determines whether July's higher revenue guidance can be delivered. SMS contributed about 51% of consolidated first-half revenue[16] at a margin of about 10%[29], well below CSD's 26%[30]; the company raised full-year revenue guidance by $200 million on stronger SMS performance and the AMDT-3 win, and lifted full-year SMS revenue guidance by the same $200 million to $11.7 billion[8].
Second-quarter SMS revenue was $2.966 billion, up 7%[29], compared with $2.990 billion in the first quarter[25]; the increase came from $81 million in ISR missionized aircraft, $76 million in classified space, $40 million in FAA air traffic work and $34 million in F-35 volume[7]. The quarterly margin was 9.8%, down from 10.4% a year earlier, mainly because the prior-year quarter included a $75 million asset-sale gain[29][9]. First-half SMS revenue was $5.956 billion, up 15%, and the $501 million increase in ISR was tied to a material-procurement milestone on classified contracts[7]; segment backlog ended the period at $22.431 billion, versus $16.282 billion a year earlier[29].
The transmission runs from missile warning and tracking satellites, ISR aircraft and air traffic contracts entering production and integration, which lifts revenue recognized each quarter under cost-to-cost accounting; but if the extra revenue comes from material pass-through or low-margin programs, operating income grows more slowly than revenue and dilutes the consolidated segment margin. The 10-Q discussion of the first half already identifies a higher share of lower-margin programs as one drag on SMS margin[7]. The open question is how much of the first-half surge was a one-time pull-forward from the milestone, and whether the roughly $2.87 billion of implied quarterly revenue in the second half can be reached[8].
In the third quarter, watch whether SMS revenue is at least about $2.87 billion, whether the margin excluding investment and asset-sale gains stays above 9%, whether net EAC adjustments remain favorable and whether backlog holds at about $22.4 billion. If third-quarter SMS revenue falls below $2.75 billion or full-year guidance is cut, the first-half growth was pulled forward by the material milestone; if the margin excluding one-off gains drops below 9%, the growth is coming mainly from low-margin programs. Because restated third-quarter 2025 segment figures have not been disclosed, the year-over-year comparison will have to wait for the third-quarter report.
CSD's margin rose to 26.9% in the second quarter on international radio deliveries; with segment backlog down 4% year over year, how long can that margin last?
CSD is where L3Harris profit is most concentrated, so its margin has the largest effect on EPS. CSD was only about 33% of first-half consolidated revenue, yet its $987 million of operating income was about 54% of the $1.844 billion segment total[3]; at quarterly revenue of about $1.9 billion, each 1 percentage point of margin moves operating income by about $19 million. In July management raised full-year CSD margin guidance from about 25% to the middle of the 25% range (mid-25%)[9].
Second-quarter CSD revenue was $1.943 billion, up 4%, and operating income was $522 million, up 14%, for a 26.9% margin versus 24.6% a year earlier[30]. Growth came mainly from international deliveries of software-defined radios in Mission Critical Communications, which added $70 million of revenue; profit included a $16 million investment gain, while R&D and selling expenses rose $27 million[18]. CSD backlog ended at $9.031 billion, below $9.437 billion a year earlier, a decline of about 4%[30].
The transmission runs from international customers buying more radios and data links, which tilts the delivery mix toward higher-margin export orders and lifts both the CSD margin and consolidated EPS. The alternative reading is that the margin gain comes from delivering high-margin existing international orders; if new bookings do not replenish backlog, revenue growth will slow over the next two to four quarters, and higher R&D and a less favorable mix could pull the margin back toward 25%. The first-quarter CSD margin improvement also included a favorable legal settlement[36], which shows that the segment's quarterly margin does not come entirely from recurring deliveries.
In the third quarter, watch whether the CSD margin stays above 25.5% and how much of it comes from investment gains, whether backlog stops falling and management discloses new international radio orders, and whether revenue keeps growing year over year. If the margin falls below 25% while backlog keeps declining, the margin lift from international mix has peaked; if CSD revenue declines year over year, the backlog decline has started to affect current revenue.
MSL grew 16% in the first half and management promises at least high-teens annual growth for the retained business; after divesting commercial space propulsion and with expansion costs rising, can the third quarter deliver that growth while holding a 12% margin?
MSL is the fastest-growing and most capital-intensive segment, and its growth and margin determine the return on the expansion spending. The Department of War invested $1 billion in MSL through convertible preferred stock[19], the company reaffirmed a roughly $3 billion solid rocket motor capacity buildout[5] and it delayed the MSL IPO to mid-2027[34]. MSL's operating results therefore affect both the basis for the listing and the conversion terms of the Department of War preferred stock[35].
Second-quarter MSL revenue was $1.054 billion, up 14%, and operating income was $130 million, a 12.3% margin that was essentially flat with 12.5% a year earlier[10]; excluding the commercial space propulsion business being divested, the retained business grew 16%[9]. The increase came from $85 million in Propulsion Systems and $44 million in Advanced Effects[28], and backlog ended at $10.531 billion versus $9.661 billion a year earlier[10]. Management said it had signed a seven-year THAAD and PAC-3 production framework agreement representing about $12 billion of future revenue and about $2 billion of profit, that more than $20 billion of missile contracts are under negotiation and that deliveries have risen more than 60%[34].
The transmission runs from missile demand and multi-year framework agreements driving plant expansion, higher delivery volume lifting revenue and greater output spreading fixed costs, which moves the margin toward the 15% to 18% target management described[37]. Management also said the major expansion facilities will come online between 2027 and 2029, so the most significant jumps in revenue and profit will follow a roughly two-year ramp[37]; depreciation, start-up costs and supply chain problems during the buildout can hold down near-term margins. MSL capital spending was $38 million in the second quarter versus $23 million a year earlier, and $71 million in the first half, close to twice the prior-year level[31].
In the third quarter, watch whether MSL retained-business growth is at least 15%, whether the margin is at least 12% and whether new unfavorable EAC adjustments or asset-sale gains appear, whether the new GMLRS facility came online the month after the July call as management said[34], and how many of the contracts under negotiation are signed and added to backlog. If retained growth is below 15% or the margin is below 11.8%, the expansion has not yet turned into deliveries; if expansion facilities slip or the munitions supplemental appropriation is pushed into 2027, the growth timeline is moving later[38].
First-half free cash flow was only $584 million, so the $3.0 billion full-year guide requires roughly $2.4 billion in the second half; can billing and collections keep up?
Free cash flow funds buybacks, dividends and debt repayment, so whether the second half delivers directly sets the room for capital returns. In the first half of 2026, dividends of $470 million and buybacks of $525 million totaled $995 million, already more than the $584 million of free cash flow in the period[3]; meanwhile, the current portion of long-term debt rose from $673 million at the start of the year to $1.815 billion[11].
Second-quarter operating cash flow was $879 million and free cash flow was $771 million, both up 37%[4], which the company attributed to higher net income and working capital timing[26]. First-half free cash flow was $584 million, up from $460 million a year earlier[3]. On July 3, contract assets were $3.674 billion and receivables were $1.950 billion, a combined $5.624 billion that was $687 million above the $4.937 billion at the start of the year, while contract liabilities rose $674 million to $2.936 billion[11].
The transmission runs from the government being billed by progress or milestone, contract assets turning into receivables and receivables into cash, which produces operating cash flow, and then about $600 million of capital spending is subtracted to reach free cash flow[17][26]. The alternative reading is that part of the first-half cash improvement came from higher customer advances; if government billing or supplemental appropriations slip in the second half, contract assets will keep building and the gap to the $3.0 billion full-year target will be concentrated in the fourth quarter. Management said in April that full-year cash generation would be weighted to the back half[32], but that statement alone does not prove the collection timing is settled.
In the third quarter, watch whether free cash flow is at least $400 million and the $3.0 billion full-year guide is reaffirmed, whether combined contract assets and receivables stop rising, and whether capital spending tracks the roughly $600 million plan. If third-quarter free cash flow falls below $400 million or the guide is cut, billing and collections are lagging; if a decline in contract liabilities offsets better collections, the first-half cash was driven mainly by advances.
Risks and Falsifiers
The management change is the most immediate uncertainty this quarter. On August 17, 2026, Christopher Kubasik stepped down as Chairman and CEO, Sam Mehta, who had led SMS and CSD, became President and CEO, and Lewis Hay III became Independent Chairman[12]; the board said Kubasik's conduct was inconsistent with the company's Code of Conduct and, after an investigation with independent counsel, entered into a separation agreement with him, while SMS and CSD also received new presidents[5]. The company said the conduct was unrelated to financial reporting, controls, customer relationships or operating performance, and it reaffirmed full-year guidance the same day[5]; the risk lies in later changes the new team may make to guidance, capital allocation or the MSL listing plan, not in any known financial impact. If the third-quarter report maintains or raises full-year guidance and the new management continues the expansion and capital return plans, this concern is falsified.
The Department of War preferred stock terms tie the timing of the MSL listing to the company's balance sheet. The preferred carries a liquidation preference of face value plus 7% cumulative annual dividends compounded quarterly, converts automatically on a qualified IPO completed by December 31, 2027 and otherwise is redeemed at the fair value of MSL on April 17, 2031[35]; on an IPO it converts at 80% of the offering price, and the warrants are exchanged for new warrants to buy 3% of the listed company[39]. On the July 3 balance sheet, the preferred stock had a $1.422 billion redemption amount and a $968 million mezzanine equity carrying value, alongside a $130 million conversion-feature liability and a $186 million warrant liability[11], and the related non-cash deemed dividend already flowed into second-quarter GAAP EPS[26]. If the company completes the MSL IPO by mid-2027 and the preferred converts into common equity as agreed, this risk is resolved.
The SMS program mix could keep the consolidated segment margin from reaching the "low 16%" guidance. The SMS first-half margin was already weighed down by a higher share of lower-margin programs, and in the second quarter unfavorable EAC adjustments on two programs rose by a net $30 million[7]; based on the $11.7 billion full-year guide, implied second-half SMS revenue is about $5.744 billion[8], so each 1 percentage point of margin decline removes about $57 million of operating income. If SMS net EAC adjustments are favorable in both the third and fourth quarters and the margin excluding one-off gains is at least 9.5%, this risk is falsified.
The high CSD margin depends on international radio and data link deliveries, and the year-over-year decline in backlog suggests new orders are not fully replenishing it. CSD's first-half operating income of $987 million was about 54% of segment operating income[3], and each 1 percentage point of margin decline removes about $19 million of operating income at quarterly revenue of about $1.9 billion. If international deliveries slow or R&D keeps rising, a lower margin would directly reduce consolidated EPS; if year-end CSD backlog returns above $9.4 billion and the full-year margin is at least in the middle of the 25% range, this concern does not hold.
The solid rocket motor expansion is concentrated in 2027 to 2029, and costs and appropriation timing during that period could depress MSL margins[37]. MSL's first-half operating income was $254 million[10], and each 1 percentage point of margin decline removes about $10 million of operating income at quarterly revenue of about $1.05 billion; the $973 million in net proceeds from the Department of War investment has gone to expansion[14], and management acknowledged execution risk in scaling production quickly and uncertainty over the timing of munitions supplemental appropriations[38]. If the second-half MSL margin is at least 12.5%, retained growth is at least 17% and contracts under negotiation are signed in turn, this risk is falsified.
A US government continuing resolution or shutdown would delay contract awards and billing, building up contract assets and pushing cash flow toward year-end. Management pointed to uncertainty over Department of War budget negotiations and the timing of munitions supplemental appropriations[38]; about $2.416 billion of the $3.0 billion full-year free cash flow guide must be generated in the second half, and first-half dividends and buybacks of $995 million already exceeded free cash flow for the period[3]. If third-quarter free cash flow is at least $400 million and combined contract assets and receivables fall by year-end, this risk is falsified.
What to Watch Next
- SMS backlog conversion: second-quarter revenue was $2.966 billion at a 9.8% margin with $22.431 billion of backlog. Third-quarter revenue of at least about $2.87 billion and a margin above 9% excluding one-offs would strengthen the case; revenue below $2.75 billion or a guidance cut would weaken it.
- CSD international margin: the second-quarter margin was 26.9% and backlog was $9.031 billion, versus $9.437 billion a year earlier. A margin below 25% with further backlog decline would weaken the case.
- MSL expansion and deliveries: retained growth was 16%, the margin 12.3% and capital spending $38 million in the second quarter. Watch whether retained growth stays at 15% or more and whether the new GMLRS plant is producing; growth below 15% or a margin below 11.8% would weaken the case.
- Second-half cash: first-half free cash flow was $584 million and combined contract assets and receivables were $5.624 billion. Third-quarter free cash flow below $400 million or a cut to the $3.0 billion guide would weaken the case.
- Management transition: guidance was reaffirmed on August 17. A guidance cut or a change to the expansion plan in the new CEO's first report would weaken the case.
Conclusion
L3Harris is driven by three lines: SMS converting $22.431 billion of segment backlog into revenue[29], CSD holding a 26.9% margin on international radio deliveries[30], and MSL delivering at least high-teens annual growth in the retained business through capacity expansion[8]. The company's current financial position is that revenue and EPS guidance have been raised, but first-half free cash flow was only $584 million, and dividends and buybacks of $995 million already exceeded cash generated in the period[3]. The central unresolved relationship is whether revenue growth can hold the "low 16%" segment margin and also turn into about $2.4 billion of free cash flow in the second half.
From the July 29, 2026 results release to now, the third-party material available consists mainly of contract news, coverage of the CEO change and brokers' shifting views on the shares, and none of it is an independent interpretation that can be checked against its original text and maps directly onto the debates above, so no outside view is used here and this material is not treated as a shared market view. The current assessment can rest only on company disclosures and management statements, and management's claims about MSL growth, the THAAD and PAC-3 framework agreement and the $20 billion of contracts under negotiation[34] are the company's own account, which later results and signed contracts will need to confirm.
The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter SMS revenue of at least about $2.87 billion with a margin above 9% excluding one-offs, a CSD margin held above 25.5% with backlog stabilizing, MSL retained growth of at least 15% with a margin of at least 12%, and free cash flow of at least $400 million alongside a reaffirmed $3.0 billion full-year guide. Conversely, if SMS revenue falls below $2.75 billion, CSD backlog keeps shrinking while its margin drops below 25%, or contract assets keep building and the cash gap is pushed into the fourth quarter, the current understanding of backlog conversion and cash delivery would be significantly weakened.
Sources
[1] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · U.S. Government share of revenue · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[2] LHX earnings calendar updated 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-22 · Drillr earnings calendar
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[8] LHX Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · guidance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[9] LHX Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · segment performance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[10] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · MSL segment table · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
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[13] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · consolidated statement of cash flows · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[14] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · cash flows discussion · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[15] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · segment reorganization · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[16] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · business segment financial results · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[17] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · contract assets and liabilities policy · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[18] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · CSD results discussion · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[19] LHX 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · DoW $1 billion Missile Solutions investment · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[20] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · Space Technology disposal group · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[21] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · consolidated statement of operations · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[22] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · FY2025 business segment results (four legacy segments) · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[23] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · contractual backlog · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[24] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · consolidated balance sheet · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[25] LHX Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-04-30 · summary results by segment · 2026-04-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[26] LHX Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · consolidated discussion and cash guidance · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[27] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · contractual backlog note · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[28] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · MSL results discussion · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[29] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · SMS segment table · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[30] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · CSD segment table · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[31] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · capex and D&A by segment · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[32] LHX Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · guidance · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[33] LHX 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · competitive conditions · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
[34] LHX Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · management highlights · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[35] LHX Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · DoW strategic investment terms · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202058/000020205826000058/
[36] LHX Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · segment performance · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[37] LHX Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · Q&A · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[38] LHX Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · risks · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://investors.l3harris.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
[39] LHX Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 · DoW investment subsequent event · 2026-04-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000202058&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40