ARRAY-Shoals Merger: Risk to eBOS Supplier Hirakawa (5821.T) and FTC Solar

The ARRAY-Shoals merger, announced in an 8-K on November 4, 2026, combines US solar tracker maker ARRAY (ARRY) with electrical balance-of-system (eBOS) supplier Shoals (SHLS). The combined company plans to sell trackers and wiring as one package, so projects that bought wiring elsewhere may move, which could pressure independent eBOS vendors and their Japanese harness supplier. [1][2]

Each Shoals share converts into 1.6931 ARRAY shares; ARRAY holders will own about 35% and Shoals holders about 65%. [1] The company expects 2027 pro forma revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion and more than $100 million a year of synergies within three years. [1] Year-one synergies are about $35 million: $20 million of cost savings and $15 million of cross-selling. [1] Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027. [1] Only about 20% of the projects the two served in 2025 and 2026 used products from both. [1]

On November 4, ARRAY rose 14.9% to $5.33 after gaining 22.1% the day before; Shoals rose 8.1% to $9.16; the solar ETF TAN rose 5.7%. [3]

What trackers and eBOS do in a solar plant

A utility-scale solar plant mounts thousands of panels on trackers, structures that turn with the sun so the panels produce more power. ARRAY is one of the main US tracker makers, with 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. [4]

Cables, harnesses and combiner equipment, the eBOS, gather each panel's power and carry it to the inverter. Shoals is a leading US eBOS supplier. [1]

The engineering, procurement and construction contractor (EPC) has usually bought trackers and eBOS from different vendors. eBOS vendors buy harnesses and cable from upstream wire makers.

Shoals' annual report names Premier PV, Voltage, Hikam America and TerraSmart among its principal eBOS competitors. [5] Nextpower (NXT), the other leading US tracker maker, already sells both trackers and eBOS; non-tracker products are about 22% of its revenue. [6]

From bundled sales to upstream harness orders

First, the combined company offers one design package, one purchase and one warranty. [1]

Second, the cross-selling target is the roughly 80% of projects that used ARRAY trackers with someone else's eBOS, or Shoals eBOS with someone else's trackers. [1]

Third, each such project it wins is an order lost by an independent eBOS vendor such as Premier PV, Voltage or Hikam America. [5]

Fourth, when those vendors' volumes fall, North American orders at their upstream harness makers fall too.

For tracker-only vendors, a second tracker-plus-eBOS bundler makes competing harder.

Companies that may be affected

Hirakawa Hewtech (5821.T)

This Japanese wire and cable maker sits at the top of the chain, supplying harnesses and cable to US solar eBOS vendors. In the fiscal year to March 2026, revenue rose 24.7% to ¥38,423 million and operating income rose from ¥2,267 million to ¥4,416 million, [7][8] mainly on energy-industry cables amid strong North American demand, the company says. [7]

Its largest customer is Premier PV, which bought ¥3,979 million that year, 10.4% of revenue. [7] Premier PV is a US eBOS vendor. [9] Hirakawa's subsidiary Hikam America also sells US solar harnesses; Shoals filed a complaint against it at the US International Trade Commission in 2023. [10]

By a rough estimate, the incremental margin on that year's added revenue was about 28%, putting roughly ¥1.1 billion of profit, about 25% of operating income, on the Premier PV account. A 20% volume loss there would cost about ¥220 million, roughly 5% of operating income. Hikam America's other US sales are not disclosed, so this is a floor.

Hirakawa, worth about ¥46.6 billion, [11] closed at ¥3,150 on November 4; the merger was announced after Tokyo's close and before the US open. [3]

FTC Solar (FTCI)

FTC Solar sells only trackers and pitches EPCs on supplier diversification. [12] It now faces a second bundler that can sell trackers through Shoals' customer relationships.

Q2 2026 revenue was $26.2 million, Q3 guidance $30 million to $35 million, and bookings run about $60 million a quarter. [12] It ended Q2 with $11.2 million of cash, below its credit agreement's $15 million minimum, and also missed the minimum direct-margin covenant. [12]

By a rough estimate, losing 10% to 15% of its roughly $240 million of annual bookings ($25 million to $35 million) to bundles would push breakeven further out and raise covenant and going-concern risk.

On November 4 it reported a Q3 loss of $0.44 per share, versus $0.36 a year earlier. [13] Its shares fell 4.8% that day to $1.38, a market cap of about $25 million. [3][11]

What to watch

Near term: Hirakawa's first-half results in early-to-mid November and third-quarter results in early February 2027, for any slowdown in North American energy cables or a change in customer mix.

The combined company's proxy, due by end-2026, and 2027 quarterly reports: does the share of projects using both product lines rise above 20%? Also FTC Solar's bookings against about $60 million a quarter, and Nextpower's eBOS bookings and US share at its November 16 capital markets day.

Utility-scale orders turn into deliveries over two to four quarters, so independent eBOS volume losses would show from mid-2027 at the earliest. For Hirakawa that means April-September 2027 results and the customer table in its June 2027 annual report: whether Premier PV's share falls below 10.4%, or under the 10% disclosure threshold.

The chain breaks if the deal fails a shareholder vote or regulatory approval; the both-products share stays near 20% in 2027; Hirakawa's North American solar harness sales keep growing through the fiscal year ending March 2028; tracker-only vendors team up with independent eBOS vendors on rival bundles; or Premier PV's parent keeps it supplying its own EPC projects regardless of tracker brand.

This only helps you find transmission chains that may be overlooked. It is not a stock recommendation.

Sources

[1] ARRAY and Shoals · 2026-11-04 · 8-K Exhibit 99.1 merger press release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820721/000119312526446483/d184627dex991.htm

[2] GlobeNewswire · 2026-11-04 · Array Technologies and Shoals Technologies Group announce transformative merger creating an integrated energy infrastructure platform · https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395153/0/en/array-technologies-and-shoals-technologies-group-announce-transformative-merger-creating-an-integrated-energy-infrastructure-platform.html

[3] Drillr price_volume_history · 2026-10-01 to 2026-11-04 · ARRY, SHLS, FTCI, TAN, 5821.T daily prices

[4] Drillr earning_call_summary · 2026-08-05 · ARRAY (ARRY) Q2 2026 earnings call

[5] Shoals Technologies · 2026-02-24 · FY2025 10-K, Competition section

[6] Drillr earning_call_summary · 2026-10-28 · Nextpower (NXT) fiscal Q2 2027 earnings call

[7] Hirakawa Hewtech · 2026-06 · Annual securities report for the fiscal year ended March 2026 (EDINET E01352) · https://edinetdb.jp/company/E01352/text?fy=2026

[8] Drillr financial_statements · 2026-05-28 · 5821.T FY2025 and FY2026 revenue and operating income

[9] Business Wire · 2024-08-20 · Premier PV, a Primoris Services Corporation Company, Reaches $55 Million in Backlog · https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/premier-pv-a-primoris-services-corporation-company-reaches-55-million-in-backlog

[10] Shoals Technologies · 2023-05-04 · 8-K Exhibit 99.1: ITC patent complaint against Hikam and Voltage · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831651/000183165123000041/itccomplaintpressrelease.htm

[11] Drillr company_snapshot · 2026-11-04 · 5821.T and FTCI market cap

[12] Drillr earning_call_summary · 2026-08-05 · FTC Solar (FTCI) Q2 2026 earnings call

[13] Zacks · 2026-11-04 · FTC Solar (FTCI) reports Q3 loss, tops revenue estimates · https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3022654/ftc-solar-ftci-reports-q3-loss-tops-revenue-estimates