TXN
NASDAQ · Technology · Semiconductors · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TXN] Texas Instruments Thesis 2026: Analog Cycle Recovery + 300mm Wafer Investment Anchor Long-Term Position
Texas Instruments FY2025 revenue ~$16B (+5-10% YoY recovering from FY2024 cyclical trough $15.6B = -22% from FY2022 peak $20B). Adj. operating margin recovered to 38% (from FY2024 36.5% trough vs FY2021-22 peak ~50%). Multi-year capex investment ($25-30B+ FY2022-2030 on 300mm wafer transition) supports structural cost advantage vs peer analog producers using 200mm wafers — ~30-40% of TI analog production at 300mm wafers as of FY2025, target 60-70% by FY2028-2030. End-market mix shifted toward industrial (36%) + automotive (25%) at higher analog content per system. CEO Haviv Ilan continued multi-year capex + operational discipline philosophy from Rich Templeton 27-year predecessor tenure. FY2026 thesis: analog cycle recovery continues; 300mm capex translates to operating margin recovery toward 45%+ as depreciation stabilizes + revenue scales; FY2027 EPS $7.50-8.50; key risks: sustained analog cycle weakness, capex pressure on FCF, competitive intensity from Asian analog producers.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Can Texas Instruments' $5.2B Guidance Lift Analog Peers Trading at 2023 Trough Multiples?
Texas Instruments' Q2 guidance of $5.2B (11% above consensus) confirms industrial demand recovery, but Analog Devices and ON Semiconductor trade at 18-19x forward—400-500bp below TXN—despite identical end-market exposure. Long ADI and ON over 90 days targets 5-8% outperformance as Q2 results validate the turn.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
QCOM Drops 25.5% as Mobile Chips Stall — While NVDA, AMD and MU Pull Ahead
Qualcomm's 25.5% plunge underscores mobile and auto chip slowdown, hurting QCOM, NXPI, and TXN, while AI tailwinds propel NVDA, AMD, and MU. The article analyzes exposure, financials, and ranks conviction plays amid the sector divide.