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Research · Sep 3, 2026

[T] AT&T Thesis 2026: Fiber + 5G Convergence Tests Post-Spinoff Strategic Refocus

AT&T FY2025 revenue ~$123B flat YoY with adj. EBITDA expanding to ~$44B (36% margin) as Mobility (+3-4% service revenue, ARPU expansion) and Consumer Wireline fiber growth offset Business Wireline secular declines (-8 to -10%/yr). Fiber subscribers reached ~9.0M (~32% penetration of 28M locations passed); postpaid phone subscribers ~73M with churn 0.83%. Net debt reduced to ~$120B (from ~$170B post-Discovery spin April 2022). FY2026 thesis: fiber buildout reaching 30M+ locations passed by end FY2026, fiber subs toward 10-11M; Mobility ARPU continued +$1-1.50/year expansion; deleveraging to ~$110-115B FY2026; convergence customers (5G + fiber) generate ~50-60% lower churn supporting LTV; key risks: cable mobile bundling intensification, fiber buildout pace slowdown, recession compressing wireless service revenue.