RRR

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[RRR] Red Rock Resorts Thesis 2026: Durango Maturation Drives Locals Casino EBITDA Inflection

Red Rock Resorts FY2025 revenue ~$2.01B and adj. EBITDA ~$770M as Durango Casino (opened Dec 2023) generated ~$70M EBITDA in second full year (up from ~$45M FY2024) — still ramping toward target $200M+ at maturity. Locals casino model produces ~38% adj. EBITDA margin (vs. ~25-32% Strip peers) given regular Boarding Pass member visit frequency. FY2026 thesis: Durango maturation toward $135-160M EBITDA contribution; legacy 8 properties stable at ~$700M EBITDA; Las Vegas valley population growth (master-planned communities) supports locals demand; key risk: locals market saturation if Boyd/Affinity expand capacity or LV economic downturn; Durango is the swing factor.