PSX
NYSE · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[PSX] Phillips 66 Thesis 2026: WRB Acquisition Reshapes Downstream Portfolio and Cost Base
Phillips 66 FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $132.19B revenue (-8%). NI $4.40B; EPS $10.79 (+116% from FY24 trough). Acquired remaining 50% WRB (Canadian heavy +40%); sold 65% Germany/Austria retail; idled LA refinery; Midstream Coastal Bend + Dos Picos Two completed. Refining cost target ~$5.50/bbl by 2027.
Research · Apr 30, 2026
SHEL: Hormuz Blockade Tightens LNG Supply for Majors
The Hormuz blockade creates a bifurcated outcome: LNG producers with Middle East assets (Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies) face 2-3 quarter supply disruptions and margin compression, while refining-heavy majors and integrated producers with refining exposure benefit from crude-product spread widening. Consensus has treated all majors symmetrically on Brent upside, missing the structural divergence. LNG-heavy names should underperform the refining basket by 5-10% over the next 2-3 quarters.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Airlines' Jet Fuel Costs Dwarf Refiners' Crack Spread Gains by 3:1 Margin
Persistent $150 crude jet fuel prices create a zero-sum margin transfer: airlines lose 8-10% operating income while refiners gain 12-15%. The market's focus on passenger surcharges misses the structural asymmetry. Long VLO/MPC paired with AAL/LUV targets +10-15% relative return over 3-6 months, breaking if jet fuel reverts to $90 by September or airlines outperform refiners by 5%+ over 120 days.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Which US Refiners Reap Most From Record Margins as Jet Fuel Doubles?
Record refining margins and jet fuel spikes position VLO, MPC and PSX for 15-25% Q2 beats, overlooked in consensus models. Coastal giants lead on complexity and scale versus mid-tiers. Falsifies on crack collapse below $15/bbl by Q3 end.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Venezuela Sanctions Lifted: VLO, MPC Get Cheap Crude Boost — COP and OXY Face Pressure
US sanctions relief on Venezuelan official Rodríguez paves way for heavy crude ramp, favoring Gulf refiners (VLO, MPC, PSX) via cheaper feedstock while pressuring shale producers (COP, OXY). Integrated XOM holds steady. Top picks: refiners at attractive multiples amid tight global capacity.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Refining Margins Hit Record Highs — VLO, MPC, and PSX Are the Biggest Winners
As global refining margins reach unprecedented highs, US downstream energy companies are positioned to benefit significantly. This article analyzes key players like Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66, highlighting their financial performance and growth potential in this favorable market environment.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
US Naphtha Export Boom Lifts VLO and PSX 40% YTD — Can Refiners Run Further?
Trump-linked geopolitical actions have supercharged US naphtha exports, boosting Valero and Phillips 66 margins amid 40% YTD stock gains. Strong Q4 financials, high utilizations, and export infrastructure position refiners for multi-quarter profits. Bullish stance with $200+ targets.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Record US Fuel Exports Crush VLO and MPC Rivals — While UPS and FDX Pay the Price
Record March US fuel exports to Europe/Asia amid Middle East gaps boost refiner margins for VLO, MPC, PSX, while diesel costs pressure FDX, UPS, CSX. MPC tops conviction list at 17.8x P/E with midstream tailwinds; UPS lags with -17% 1Y return.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
US Fuel Exports Hit Record High: Why VLO and MPC Are Primed for the Margin Boom
Record March US fuel exports to Europe/Asia amid Middle East gaps have ignited global refining margins, favoring Gulf Coast-heavy US refiners like VLO and MPC. We analyze six downstream leaders, ranking conviction based on export access, costs, and valuations amid the crack boom.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Oil Supply Shock: XOM, CVX Surge While UAL, DAL Face Fuel Cost Crisis
Seaborne oil cargo prices surged on April 3, 2026, amid supply disruption fears, favoring energy producers like XOM, CVX, COP, and VLO while pressuring airlines UAL and DAL. Integrated majors lead with robust FCF and growth, ranked by conviction. Watch fuel cracks and OPEC+ for thesis confirmation.