ORA
NYSE · Utilities · Renewable Utilities · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
ORA Ormat Technologies Thesis 2026: Geothermal Baseload Power Drives Energy Storage Grid Services Expansion
Ormat Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ORA) FY2026 thesis centers on continued Electricity Geothermal Baseload Power pipeline (~$0.65-0.75B revenue) + Product EPC + Energy Storage Grid Services pipeline (~$0.20-0.35B revenue) under continued President + CEO Doron Blachar since 2020 (~5-year tenure as Ormat Technologies CEO; selected post-2020 succession from Isaac Angel departure + selected primary internal promotion from CFO + selected primary architect of post-2020-2025 ~1.2-1.5 GW aggregate geothermal capacity expansion + Energy Storage segment buildout + Inflation Reduction Act PTC/ITC tailwind capture). FY2025 revenue ~$0.90-1.05B (+5-15% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$2.50-3.10 reflecting continued ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate adj. EBITDA. ORA operates 3 primary segments: Electricity ~67-74% revenue ($0.65-0.75B; geothermal + REG power generation in US/Kenya/Guatemala/Indonesia/Honduras) + Product ~16-25% revenue ($0.15-0.25B; geothermal power plant equipment EPC + turnkey power plant supply) + Energy Storage ~5-10% revenue ($0.05-0.10B; battery energy storage systems + grid services) with geographic mix US ~60-65% + Kenya ~15-20% + Guatemala + Indonesia + Honduras + Other ~15-25%. Electricity Geothermal Baseload Power pipeline (~$0.65-0.75B revenue + ~67-74% revenue mix): selected primary ~1.2-1.5 GW aggregate geothermal + recovered energy generation (REG) net capacity (US Nevada + California + Hawaii + Steamboat + Don A. Campbell + Tungsten Mountain + McGinness Hills + Kenya Olkaria + Guatemala + Indonesia + Honduras + ~25-30+ aggregate geothermal power plants + ~95%+ aggregate baseload capacity factor highest of all renewable energy sources) + ~60-65% aggregate Electricity adj. EBITDA margin (highest-margin segment) + long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with US utilities + Kenya KenGen + ~15-25 year aggregate weighted average PPA tenor + IRA PTC/ITC tailwind capture + ~100-300 MW aggregate annual geothermal capacity addition pipeline. Product EPC + Energy Storage Grid Services pipeline (~$0.20-0.35B revenue + ~26-33% revenue mix; Growth Catalyst): selected primary Product (geothermal power plant equipment EPC + turnkey power plant supply + Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turbine technology + ~$0.5-1.0B+ aggregate Product backlog + Indonesia + New Zealand + Turkey + international geothermal equipment supply) + Energy Storage (battery energy storage systems (BESS) + ~500-800 MW aggregate operating + development energy storage capacity + ERCOT Texas + PJM + California ISO grid services + merchant + tolling + ITC tailwind capture + ~+50-100% aggregate Energy Storage segment revenue growth trajectory). Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.48 aggregate annual dividend (~15-20% payout; ~0.4-0.7% yield; selected ~10+ year aggregate dividend track record + periodic increases) + no aggregate FY2025 buybacks (capital reinvestment + geothermal + energy storage capacity expansion priority) + aggregate capital return ~$30-50M FY2025 + net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA + non-investment-grade BB+/Ba1 credit rating + ~60-62M aggregate diluted shares + ORIX Corporation ~22% aggregate ownership stake. FY2026 base case ~$0.95-1.15B aggregate revenue + ~$2.80-3.50 adj. EPS + ~$30-55M aggregate capital return; bull case Electricity Geothermal Baseload Power pipeline acceleration (~100-300 MW annual geothermal capacity additions + ~1.3-1.7 GW geothermal + REG net capacity + ~95%+ baseload capacity factor + long-term PPA escalators + IRA PTC/ITC tailwind capture + AI/datacenter baseload power demand tailwind + ~60-65% Electricity adj. EBITDA margin) + Product EPC + Energy Storage Grid Services pipeline acceleration (~$0.5-1.0B+ Product backlog conversion + Energy Storage ~600-1,000 MW operating + development capacity + ERCOT Texas + PJM + California ISO grid services + merchant + tolling expansion + ~+50-100% Energy Storage revenue growth + ITC tailwind capture) drives ~$1.05-1.30B aggregate revenue + ~$3.30-4.20 EPS; bear case NextEra + Brookfield Renewable + Clearway + AES + Northland + Innergex + Calpine Geothermal + Cyrq + Fervo + Sage Geosystems + Eavor + Chevron New Energies + Fluence + Tesla Megapack + Powin + Wartsila competitive intensification + IRA PTC/ITC policy considerations + US + Kenya + Guatemala + Indonesia + Honduras geothermal resource + drilling risk considerations + long-term PPA renewal + repricing considerations + enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) competitive considerations + ~100-300 MW annual geothermal capacity addition execution considerations + ERCOT Texas + PJM + California ISO grid services + merchant + tolling cycle considerations + Energy Storage segment revenue growth execution considerations + Product backlog conversion considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations (capex-intensive + project finance sensitivity) + post-2020 Doron Blachar CEO succession planning considerations drives ~$0.85-0.95B revenue + ~$2.20-2.70 EPS.
Research · Aug 28, 2026
US Grid Equipment Ban Puts Battery Cells at the Center
The August 26 US grid equipment order covers battery storage, placing new orders, cell sourcing and project costs under scrutiny.
Research · Aug 27, 2026
EO 14420 Grid Equipment Ban: Battery Cells, Not Transformers
Executive Order 14420 bans Covered Foreign Entity grid equipment. Batteries are about 84% of the covered value the US buys from China, so the constraint binds on storage cells, not transformers.