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NYSE · Real Estate · REIT - Retail · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[O] Realty Income Thesis 2026: Spirit Realty Integration Year + Monthly Dividend Aristocrat Tests Acquisition Pacing After Cap Rate Recalibration
Realty Income FY2025 revenue ~$5.1B (+8%) with adj. FFO/share ~$4.30-4.45 reflecting first full year of Spirit Realty integration ($9.3B all-stock merger closed Jan 2024 added ~2,000 properties bringing total to ~15,500). Adj. FFO/share growth decelerated to 4-5% (vs historical 5-7%) reflecting elevated cost of capital and selective acquisition pacing after 2022-2023 rate cycle. Acquisition pace FY2024 ~$3.5B (vs $9B historical) reflecting capital discipline: management would not pursue dilutive deals when cost of equity rose to ~8% while cap rates only reached ~6.5-7.0%. Monthly dividend distribution $3.20-3.24/share (S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat 30+ years; 13 monthly payments rare for large-cap REITs). FY2026 thesis: (1) Spirit integration synergies fully realized ($50M+ run-rate); (2) acquisition pace recovers toward $5-7B as cap rate-cost of capital spread normalizes; (3) European expansion continues (UK + EU ~12-13% of base rent growing). Key risks: cost of equity remains elevated, tenant concentration shock, retail credit cycles.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hot CPI Kills 2025 Fed Cut Hopes — JPM, BAC Lead Bank Winners While REITs Take the Hit
Hotter CPI has bond markets pricing fewer 2025 Fed cuts, favoring banks like JPM, BAC, and WFC via NIM expansion while hurting REITs (PLD, O) and homebuilders (DHI) with higher costs and weak demand. JPM leads conviction ranking; avoid leveraged real estate. Article analyzes financials, guidance, and exposures.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.57% Seven-Month High: KBH, RKT Slide While WFC Holds Firm
Rising to 6.57%, mortgage rates pressure homebuilders KBH/TOL and lender RKT with falling orders/revenue, while banks like WFC gain NIM and REITs AVB/O hold via occupancy. Ranked picks favor WFC top, avoiding RKT bottom.