MCD
NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MCD] McDonald's Thesis 2026: Value Menu Bet Tests Franchise System Economics
McDonald's FY2025 revenue ~$26B with adj. operating margin ~46% — franchise model structural advantage. US same-store sales -0.6% full year (Q1 -3.6% on Q4 2024 E. coli outbreak aftermath, recovering to +1.5% Q4). IDL (China/Japan/LatAm) strongest at +6.3% comp. IOM (UK/Germany/France) modestly positive at +0.7%. $5 meal deal extended through FY2025 driving traffic recovery. FY2026 thesis: value menu effectiveness sustains traffic recovery without compressing franchisee economics; IDL continues +5-7% on emerging market middle-class expansion; IOM gradual recovery from cost-of-living pressure; restaurant expansion toward 50,000 by FY2027; key risks: $5 meal deal compresses franchise unit margins (operator pushback at NOAF level), international weakness extends, geopolitical impacts on Middle East franchise.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
HIMS Stock Surges 18% After FDA Semaglutide Win — Is This the Start of a New Rally?
Supreme Court oral arguments cast doubt on Trump's birthright citizenship EO, a potential win for labor-reliant firms like MAR, HLT, HD, and MCD amid staffing woes. Financials show margin pressure but resilient FCF; stable immigration supports growth. Bullish stance with eyes on ruling.