MAX

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[MAX] MediaAlpha Thesis 2026: P&C Loss Ratio Recovery Restores Insurance Marketing Spend Cycle

MediaAlpha FY2025 transaction value ~$518M (+33% YoY) as auto insurance carrier loss ratios normalized to ~93% (from 102% FY2023 trough), restoring carrier marketing budgets. Exchange now has ~58 active carrier buyers and ~510 publisher partners — liquidity recovering toward pre-crisis levels. Adj. EBITDA ~$41M at ~8.6%. FY2026 thesis: P&C TV toward $650-750M as carriers reach growth marketing equilibrium; health insurance open enrollment toward $150M TV (Medicare Advantage + ACA comparison growth); adj. EBITDA toward $65-90M at ~10-12% with operating leverage. Risk: loss ratio deterioration (weather events, social inflation) triggers next marketing retrenchment cycle.