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Research · Apr 28, 2026

LLY: $2.3B Ajax Buy Hedges Mounjaro Patent Cliff

Eli Lilly's $2.3 billion Ajax Therapeutics acquisition reveals a critical divergence in large-cap pharma M&A strategy that the market has mispriced. While Merck and Pfizer scramble to replace patent cliff revenue with expensive blockbuster acquisitions, Lilly is buying rare-disease optionality from a position of GLP-1 strength. Long LLY versus short MRK/PFE targets 8-12% relative return over six months as earnings reveal the cost of desperate dealmaking.