GILD
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[GILD] Gilead Sciences Thesis 2026: Yeztugo HIV PrEP Launch Tests Post-Biktarvy Growth Replacement
Gilead Sciences FY2025 revenue ~$29.5B (+3-5%) with adj. operating margin ~36% reflecting HIV franchise stability (Biktarvy ~$13.5B dominant) plus emerging Yeztugo (lenacapavir for PrEP) commercial launch. Yeztugo (FDA approved June 2024) is most significant HIV prevention innovation in over decade — twice-yearly subcutaneous injection vs daily oral PrEP. PURPOSE-1 trial demonstrated 100% efficacy in cisgender women; PURPOSE-2 ~96% efficacy. FY2025 Yeztugo revenue ~$700M-1B (~75-100K patients). HCV revenue continues declining; Veklury COVID revenue compressed from $5.6B FY2021 peak to ~$1B FY2025. Trodelvy + CAR-T Oncology franchise growing. FY2026 thesis: Yeztugo ramps toward $2-3B (~200-300K patients); Oncology expansion sustained; Biktarvy LOE concerns 2033 but oral patents may face challenges earlier — pipeline replacement strategy critical; key risks: Yeztugo physician adoption slower than projected, Biktarvy generic challenge accelerated, Oncology execution issues.
Research · Apr 28, 2026
LLY: $2.3B Ajax Buy Hedges Mounjaro Patent Cliff
Eli Lilly's $2.3 billion Ajax Therapeutics acquisition reveals a critical divergence in large-cap pharma M&A strategy that the market has mispriced. While Merck and Pfizer scramble to replace patent cliff revenue with expensive blockbuster acquisitions, Lilly is buying rare-disease optionality from a position of GLP-1 strength. Long LLY versus short MRK/PFE targets 8-12% relative return over six months as earnings reveal the cost of desperate dealmaking.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
GILD's $5B Tubulis Deal: Oncology ADC Bet as HIV Growth Slows — Undervalued or Overpaid?
Gilead's $5B Tubulis acquisition on April 9, 2026, targets oncology ADCs to complement HIV strength, backed by $9.5B FCF and undervalued multiples. Shares edged up 0.75% amid pipeline promise, but clinical success is key to unlocking upside.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
GILD's $5B Tubulis Deal: Can This Acquisition Finally Unlock Its Oncology Turnaround?
Gilead's $5B Tubulis acquisition announced April 7, 2026, targets ADC tech to bolster oncology amid HIV strength. Solid finances support close, but regulatory and execution risks linger. Bullish for pipeline diversification and undervalued stock.