FCX
NYSE · Basic Materials · Copper · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[FCX] Freeport-McMoRan Thesis 2026: Grasberg Underground Transition + Indonesian Smelter Completion Anchor Copper Production Growth Through Electrification Demand
Freeport-McMoRan FY2025 revenue ~$26-28B (+5-10%) with adj. EPS ~$2.20-2.50 reflecting continued copper price strength ($4.20-4.50/lb average vs $3.85 FY2024) on electrification demand + supply constraints + AI data center power infrastructure expansion. Largest publicly traded copper producer with Grasberg Indonesia (largest single copper mine globally + significant gold byproduct) + Cerro Verde Peru + selected US mines (Morenci, Sierrita, Bagdad Arizona). 3 segments: Copper ~$22-24B (~85% — production 4.0-4.2 billion lbs FY2025), Gold ~$2-3B (~10% — primarily Grasberg byproduct 1.6M oz), Molybdenum ~$0.5-1B (~3%). CEO Kathleen Quirk since June 2024 (succeeded Richard Adkerson, 21-year CEO tenure that included $26B Phelps Dodge acquisition 2007 + 2018 Indonesian government divestment + Grasberg underground transition initiation). PT Freeport Indonesia ~48% Indonesian government-owned post-2018; Manyar smelter at Gresik substantially completed 2024 (multi-year build started 2018). Grasberg underground block-cave transition continuing (Deep Mill Level Zone, Grasberg Block Cave, Big Gossan, DOZ); production ramp toward 1,700-1,800M lbs Grasberg Cu by FY2026-2027. FY2026 thesis: copper price strength durability + Grasberg ramp + smelter operational + electrification demand cycle. Risks: copper price weakness on China demand, Grasberg operational disruptions, Indonesian regulatory shifts.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Molybdenum and Tungsten Mining Turns to Unstudied Deposits After China Export Curbs
Erdene and Largo say buyers are approaching molybdenum and tungsten assets with no current study - one pre-PEA, one idle since 2012 - after China tightened export licensing.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Tungsten and Molybdenum Mining Draws Buyers Before Feasibility Studies
Erdene and Largo told August 2026 calls that Asian buyers and unsolicited bidders approached their undeveloped molybdenum and tungsten assets before any study.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
FCX Q1: $881M Net Income Doubles Prior Year as Grasberg Delay Cuts 2026 Copper Guidance 13%
Freeport-McMoRan's Q1 2026 net income of $881 million doubled the prior year on higher copper prices, but the company cut full-year copper sales guidance by 13% to 3.1 billion lbs due to Grasberg Block Cave rail infrastructure delays. Unit net cash costs are projected at $1.95/lb, down 7% year-over-year, validating cost discipline despite lower volumes.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hormuz and Minerals Choke Points: Why XOM, FCX, and BHP Are Top Ranked Picks
Bloomberg's chokepoint alert favors oil majors (XOM, CVX, OXY) and copper leaders (FCX, BHP) amid Hormuz and minerals risks, while ALB faces headwinds. Ranked picks highlight resilient FCF machines at attractive valuations.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hormuz Blockade Hits Copper Hard: FCX Bleeds While XOM, CVX, OXY Rally
Bloomberg's April 13 Hormuz blockade report tanked copper and spiked aluminum spreads, bearish for FCX miners and UPS/FDX shippers but bullish for XOM/CVX/OXY on oil premiums. Energy majors' low leverage and production exposure position them for gains amid shipping chaos.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hormuz Blockade: XOM, CVX Surge as Copper Miners FCX, BHP Stumble — AA Surprise
US Hormuz blockade plans sparked copper price drops and aluminum spread spikes, favoring oil majors like XOM, CVX, and OXY while pressuring copper miners FCX and BHP. Alcoa emerges as a metals winner. Ranked picks prioritize energy scale over mining exposure.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hormuz Blockade Risk: XOM, CVX and FCX Ranked as Oil Eyes $110/bbl
Rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and Trump-era blockade speculation threaten oil supplies, favoring supermajors like XOM and CVX alongside copper miners FCX and BHP. Analysis ranks six plays by exposure, valuation, and financial strength amid potential $110/bbl crude.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Critical Minerals War: BHP, FCX Win as China's $190B Push Squeezes ALB and SQM
China's initiatives to dominate the $190B critical minerals market pressure lithium specialists like ALB and SQM while favoring diversified copper leaders BHP, RIO, and FCX. MP offers speculative upside via U.S. rare earth independence. Ranked picks highlight copper's resilience amid supply wars.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Critical Minerals: BHP, RIO, FCX Win as China's $190B Push Crushes ALB and SQM
China's bid to dominate the $190B critical minerals market pressures lithium producers like ALB and SQM but favors diversified copper giants BHP, RIO, and FCX, plus U.S. rare earth play MP. Backed by fresh financials and earnings guidance, the thesis ranks clear winners amid supply risks.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Trump Threatens Total Iran Embargo: USO Jumps 4% — What Comes Next for XLE
New Pacific seabed rare earth mining plans near Guam, driven by US-China competition, spotlight opportunities for US critical minerals firms. MP Materials tops the list as the domestic rare earth leader, followed by diversified giants like Rio Tinto and Albemarle. The article ranks five stocks with detailed financials and theme exposure analysis.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Chile Policy Shift: FCX and ALB Win Big as SQM Lags in Critical Minerals Race
Chile's new government's US-China balancing act eases policy risks for critical minerals miners, with diversified copper leader FCX and lithium producer ALB emerging as top winners, while Chile-centric SQM lags. Financial metrics highlight FCX's superior margins and valuation, positioning it for gains amid stable supply chains. Investors should track Chilean tax bills and lithium pricing for confirmation.