CSX
NASDAQ · Industrials · Railroads · US
Research · Sep 16, 2026
[CSX] CSX: Q3 2026 Earnings Preview on Intermodal Yield and Margin Quality
CSX posted record June-quarter revenue of 3,935 million dollars and a 38.3% operating margin, yet revenue per unit excluding fuel fell 1%; the September quarter tests margin without property gains.
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CSX] CSX Corporation Thesis 2026: Hinrichs ONE CSX Operational Improvements + Intermodal Volume Growth + Capital Return Discipline Anchor Eastern Class I Through Coal Decline
CSX Corporation FY2025 revenue ~$14.5-15B (+1-3%) with adj. EPS ~$1.85-1.95 reflecting continued Hinrichs ONE CSX operational strategy + selected service quality recovery + intermodal volume growth + selected merchandise diversification + coal volume secular decline partially offset by selected pricing. Major eastern US Class I railroad operating ~21,000 route miles across 23 eastern US states + Ontario; eastern US duopoly with NSC. Freight mix: Merchandise 58% (chemicals + agriculture + automotive + metals + selected) + Intermodal 18% + Coal 24% (selected metallurgical + thermal — highest coal exposure among Class I peers; secular decline pressure). CEO Joe Hinrichs since September 26, 2022 (succeeded Jim Foote; ex-Ford Motor Company President of Automotive 2017-2020; ~30-year Ford career; selected automotive industry + manufacturing operational background; brought to CSX to drive operational improvements + customer focus + selected). Hinrichs implemented ONE CSX strategy emphasizing service quality + employee engagement + customer engagement + selected operational improvements; selected service quality recovery from 2022-2023 selected operational issues. Operating ratio trajectory: 59.5% FY2022 → 60.0% FY2023 → 64.0% FY2024 → 62-64% FY2025E target → 60-62% FY2026 target. Aggressive buybacks $2-3B FY2025 (~3-4%/yr share count reduction; most aggressive among Class I peers; share count 2.10B FY2022 → 1.91B FY2025E ~10% reduction over 3 years). Dividend $0.48/share (~1.5% yield, lower than UNP/NSC). Capital return $2.9-3.9B; net debt $15-16B; Baa1/BBB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: Hinrichs ONE CSX + intermodal volume growth + coal decline management + capital return. Risks: coal volume secular decline accelerating, rail volume cyclical, regulatory environment changes.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Record US Fuel Exports Crush VLO and MPC Rivals — While UPS and FDX Pay the Price
Record March US fuel exports to Europe/Asia amid Middle East gaps boost refiner margins for VLO, MPC, PSX, while diesel costs pressure FDX, UPS, CSX. MPC tops conviction list at 17.8x P/E with midstream tailwinds; UPS lags with -17% 1Y return.