CME
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CME] CME Group Thesis 2026: Interest Rate Volatility + Diversified Product Portfolio Anchor Industry-Leading Margins
CME Group FY2025 revenue ~$6.2B (+5-7% YoY) with adj. operating margin ~64% (industry-leading vs peer exchanges 50-58%) and adj. EPS ~$10.30. Total Average Daily Volume (ADV) reached ~28M+ contracts (~9% CAGR from FY2021 19.5M) supported by interest rate volatility cycle. Eurodollar-to-SOFR transition successfully executed — SOFR futures ~9M/day FY2025 exceeding Eurodollar peak volumes (validating CME market position through benchmark transition). Diversified product portfolio (Interest Rate 30% + Equity Index 20% + FX 10% + Energy 10% + Agricultural 8% + Metals 6% + Other 5-7%) provides revenue resilience. Total dividend distribution $10.70/share (regular $4.85 + special $5.85) yielding ~4-5%. FY2026 thesis: Interest Rate volatility cycle continues + diversified product portfolio resilience + operational excellence sustains 63-65% operating margins; key risks: rate cycle normalization reducing rate futures volumes, equity index volume compression on extended bull market.
Research · Jun 3, 2026
CME, ICE, NDAQ Repriced as CFTC Lets Polymarket In
CFTC's policy action let Polymarket close its first institutional block trade. CME, ICE, and NDAQ sold off on the read-through — the first structural.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
MS Launches Lowest-Cost Bitcoin ETF — COIN and 5 Stocks Set to Capture Institutional Flows
Morgan Stanley's launch of the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETF marks a milestone in institutional adoption, benefiting custodians like COIN and BK, exchanges CME/NDAQ, issuer MS, and proxy MSTR. Analysis ranks COIN top for its ETF custody dominance amid record volumes and diversification. Watch ETF inflows and crypto derivatives growth as key catalysts.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
CFTC vs. Illinois: Why IBKR, CME, and DKNG Are the Prediction Market Winners
CFTC's lawsuit against Illinois boosts prediction markets by asserting federal control, favoring platforms like IBKR's ForecastEx and CME's event contracts. DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase gain from product launches, while JPMorgan eyes indirect entry. Ranked: IBKR > CME > DKNG.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Iran War Hits Insurance Markets: CB and TRV Premiums Surge — Is the Rally Sustainable?
JPM CEO Jamie Dimon's prediction markets comments spotlight growth potential for exchanges like CME and brokers like IBKR. We rank six players by exposure, with CME leading on scale and profitability. Banks' entry could multiply volumes but intensify competition.