CEG
NASDAQ · Utilities · Renewable Utilities · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CEG] Constellation Energy Thesis 2026: Calpine Acquisition Closing + Three Mile Island Restart + Hyperscaler PPAs Anchor Largest US Nuclear + Natural Gas Combined Platform
Constellation Energy FY2025 revenue ~$25-26B (-2 to +2%) with adj. EPS ~$8.50-9.00 reflecting continued nuclear capacity factor strength (94-95% industry-leading) + selective hyperscaler PPA execution + Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart partnership with Microsoft + selected power price normalization in capacity markets. Largest US nuclear power producer (~21GW nuclear capacity) + diversified clean energy generator (~32GW total). Spun off from Exelon February 2022 as standalone clean energy generator. CEO Joe Dominguez since 2022 (background: ex-Exelon Generation CEO + ex-Exelon Senior VP General Counsel). Nuclear fleet 23 reactors at 14 sites: Limerick + Peach Bottom + Calvert Cliffs + Braidwood + Byron + Dresden + LaSalle + Quad Cities + Three Mile Island Unit 1 restarting + selected. Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart partnership with Microsoft September 2024 (20-year PPA at ~$0.10+/kWh average — first US nuclear PPA at premium pricing for hyperscaler; Crane Clean Energy Center rebrand; ~$1.6B project; targeting 2027-2028 commercial operation). Calpine $26B all-stock + cash acquisition announced January 10, 2025 (combine nation's largest nuclear with largest natural gas IPP creating ~60GW combined capacity; expected 2026 close subject to regulatory approvals; $200-400M annual synergies year-3). IRA Inflation Reduction Act nuclear Production Tax Credit ~$15/MWh floor for nuclear at sub-$25/MWh prices declining linearly to $0 at $45/MWh. Capital return: dividend $1.55/share + buybacks $1-2B; net debt $8-9B; Baa1/BBB investment grade. FY2026 thesis: Calpine closing + TMI restart + hyperscaler PPAs + IRA PTC. Risks: Calpine regulatory approval, nuclear regulatory environment, power price volatility.
Research · Jun 11, 2026
ETR Stock: AI Data Center Power Bills Explained
Entergy CEO advocates AI customers pay incremental + capacity charge. ETR 4-6% load growth via LA/TX/MS AI concentration.
Research · Jun 5, 2026
NRG, VST, CEG: AI Power Demand as the Binding Constraint
US datacenter electricity demand to grow 200-300 TWh by 2030. NRG at 0.70x P/S, VST 2.11x, CEG 2.58x — three options for AI electricity thesis.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
AMZN+MSFT+GOOGL: $50B AI Power Deals to NEE & CEG
Clearway Energy's 2 GW hyperscaler power purchase agreements quantify what had been qualitative AI data center power demand, implying $50B annual investment through 2030 is credible. NextEra and Constellation trade at 19x and 12x forward P/E despite positioned for multi-decade contracted revenue streams, while hyperscalers demanding the power trade at 25-35x. Long NEE and CEG targets 15-25% upside over 12 months as Q2-Q4 earnings calls surface similar contract announcements.