CDW

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[CDW] CDW Corporation Thesis 2026: PC Refresh Cycle Tests AI Hardware and Cloud Distribution Growth

CDW Corporation FY2025 revenue ~$21-22B (+1-3%) with adj. EPS ~$9.40-9.80 reflecting continued post-2023-2024 PC refresh cycle weakness (selected post-pandemic 2020-2021 PC buying cohort approaching ~4-5 year refresh window FY2025-2026) + selected post-pandemic IT spending normalization + selected AI hardware purchasing ramp + selected federal IT cycle + selected operational excellence under continued CEO Christine Leahy. Leading US business + government IT distribution + value-added reseller firm; founded 1984 by Michael Krasny in Buffalo Grove Illinois originally as Computer Discount Warehouse (selected mail-order computer discount retailer; rebranded CDW 1990s; LBO by Madison Dearborn Partners + Providence Equity Partners October 2007 ~$7.3B going private; IPO July 2013 ~$430M raised post-LBO recovery); headquartered in Vernon Hills Illinois; ~15,000+ employees with ~250,000+ business + government customer accounts. 4 segments: Corporate 52% ($11B — selected mid-market + enterprise corporate clients; selected ~30,000+ accounts; hardware laptops + desktops + servers + networking + storage + software Microsoft + selected enterprise + services post-Sirius integration; ~5-7% segment operating margin) + Public 32% ($7B — Federal selected ~$4B DOD + selected agencies + state/local ~$1.5B + Healthcare ~$1B selected hospitals + Higher Education ~$0.5B; ~5-7% margin) + International 7% ($1.5B — UK CDW Limited + Canada CDW Canada; ~3-5% margin) + Small Business 9% ($2B — selected ~25-50 employee SMB clients; ~5-6% margin). Selected ~$5B+ AI hardware purchasing FY2025 (selected NVIDIA H100/H200/Blackwell + AMD MI300 + selected Intel Gaudi + selected hyperscaler-class deployments + selected enterprise AI infrastructure). CEO Christine Leahy since January 1, 2019 (succeeded Tom Richards CEO 2011-January 2019 retired; first female CEO of CDW; Leahy ex-CDW COO 2017-2019 + ex-CDW General Counsel + Chief Legal Officer 2002-2017 + ex-Sidley Austin partner ~17-year career + ~22-year CDW career; Boston University Law School JD). Key transactions: October 2007 LBO Madison Dearborn + Providence Equity ~$7.3B + IPO July 2013 ~$430M + December 2022 Sirius Computer Solutions $2.5B all-cash acquisition (selected hybrid IT solutions services expansion; ~$2B revenue contribution). Selected DOGE/Trump federal IT spending review (~$200-400M Federal revenue at-risk; ~5-10% of Federal segment). Capital return: dividend $2.48-2.60/share annual (~10 consecutive year increases since IPO; selected continued increases ~5-10% annually) + buybacks $0.5-1B; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating; net debt $4-5B (selected post-Sirius deleveraging). FY2026 thesis: PC refresh cycle recovery + AI hardware purchasing + Federal IT navigation + capital return. Risks: PC refresh delay, AI hardware commoditization, Federal IT cycle (DOGE), competitive intensity (NSIT + SHI).