CARR

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[CARR] Carrier Global Thesis 2026: Data Center Cooling Offsets Residential HVAC Weakness

Carrier Global FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $21.75B revenue (-3%). NI $1.49B; EPS $1.70 (FY24 included Fire & Security divestiture gain). Data center business reached ~$1B. Commercial HVAC +25% FY25 (5th consecutive year of double-digit growth) + double-digit aftermarket. Q4 CSA organic -17% (resi -40%, LC -20%, Commercial +12%). FY26 guide: ~$22B revenue, organic flat to low-mid single, adj op profit ~$3.4B, FCF ~$2B, ~$3B buyback intent.