Research · Sep 13, 2026
[C] Citigroup: Can 13.1% RoTCE Survive the Investment Cycle?
Citigroup posted 14% revenue growth and 13.1% year-to-date RoTCE; Q3 must show whether deposits, costs and card economics can sustain the improvement.
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[C] Citigroup Thesis 2026: Fraser Transformation + Banamex IPO Test ROTCE Recovery From 8% Toward 11-12%
Citigroup FY2025 revenue ~$81B (+3-5%) with net income ~$13.5B and adj. EPS ~$7.00 — recovering from FY2023 EPS trough $4.04 reflecting transformation costs + cyclical pressures. ROTCE ~8% remains substantially below targeted 11-12% and below peer megabank ROTCE of 13-17% (JPMorgan/Bank of America). FY2024 corporate restructuring eliminated multi-decade segment confusion replacing legacy ICG/PB/WM/LF structure with new 5-segment structure: Services + Markets + Banking + US Personal Banking + Wealth. Strategic transformation milestones: 13 international consumer banking franchise exits announced 2021, Asia consumer divested 2022-2023, Russia exit, Banamex Mexico IPO planned (~$4-7B proceeds expected, FY2025-2026 execution). CET1 ratio 13.7%; capital return $5-6B/year constrained by elevated SCB stress capital buffer 4.1%. FY2026 thesis: Banamex IPO + transformation + ROTCE recovery toward 10% by FY2027; key risks: regulatory consent orders extend, ROTCE recovery slower than projected, capital markets weakness extends.
Research · Jun 12, 2026
GS Stock: SpaceX IPO Fees and Retail Risk
GS lead bookrunner on SpaceX 4x oversubscribed IPO. Single deal $300-400M net economics. Retail allocation creates underwriter risk dynamics.
Research · Jun 11, 2026
BAC Stock: Fed Stress Test and CPI Risk Explained
BAC dual catalyst: CCAR stress test buffer + May CPI release. 100 bp buffer release would add $20B+ buyback capacity over 2 years.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Talks: Oil's Next Move Could Make or Break XLE's 8% Rally
Jane Fraser's NY Fed Council appointment spotlights big banks' rotating regulatory influence, with JPM, Citi, and MS best positioned for policy foresight amid flat TTM growth and weak shares. Analysis ranks six majors by exposure, metrics, and conviction. Key: NII guidance and Basel outcomes to track.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Q1 M&A Megadeal Surge: EVR and HLI Ranked Ahead of MS, GS, JPM for Advisory Fees
Anchored in Morgan Stanley's insights on AI, energy, and oil driving M&A, this analyzes six firms' exposure to Q1's megadeal boom. Boutiques like Evercore and Houlihan Lokey lead conviction rankings due to high-margin advisory focus, followed by bulge-bracket giants.
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