BP
NYSE · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated · GB
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[BP] BP Thesis 2026: Turnaround Year as Costs Cut and Free Cash Recovers
BP FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $189.3B revenue (+0.1%). Net income $55M (vs $381M FY24, $15.2B FY23, accounting noise). Diluted EPS $0.02. Underlying: adjusted FCF +55% price-adjusted. $2.8B of $4-5B structural cost program delivered. ROACE ~14%. Q3 production +3% QoQ; reliability ~97%. 7 major projects started up FY25 (5 ahead of schedule). 12 exploration discoveries (Bumerangue Brazil ~8B barrels in place; appraisal end-2025). Reserves replacement ratio 90% (vs 50% 2-year average). Castrol 65% sale agreed. Divestment proceeds upgraded to ~$5B FY25. Capital return $9.57B (div $5.07B + buyback $4.50B, vs $7.13B FY24 step-down). Total debt $84.3B (+$13B). 5 analysts: 2 Buy / 3 Hold; consensus $51.08, range $45.30-$58. UBS upgraded N→Buy (Apr 15); HSBC upgraded Reduce→Hold (Mar 20); Scotiabank $41→$58 (+$17 largest); Wells Fargo $39→$54.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
West African Offshore Gas Development Secures 25-Year Buyers
Mauritania and Senegal have contracted GTA gas for two power plants, giving Kosmos Energy a buyer for FPSO throughput it says needs no new capital.
Research · Apr 30, 2026
SHEL: Hormuz Blockade Tightens LNG Supply for Majors
The Hormuz blockade creates a bifurcated outcome: LNG producers with Middle East assets (Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies) face 2-3 quarter supply disruptions and margin compression, while refining-heavy majors and integrated producers with refining exposure benefit from crude-product spread widening. Consensus has treated all majors symmetrically on Brent upside, missing the structural divergence. LNG-heavy names should underperform the refining basket by 5-10% over the next 2-3 quarters.
Research · Apr 28, 2026
SHEL: Brent Holds as Trump Rejects Iran Peace Overture
Trump's rejection of Iran's truce proposal extends the diplomatic impasse supporting oil's $75-$85 range, removing near-term risk of a breakthrough that would flood markets with Iranian barrels. Shell and BP have captured this tailwind, but the trade now hinges on whether sustained tension can push oil above $90 — driving margin expansion — or whether the base-case range holds and sets up valuation compression.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
XOM and CVX Up 26-28% YTD — Why the UK Refusing Hormuz Blockade Could Widen Their Lead
The UK's April 12, 2026, refusal to join Trump's Hormuz blockade plan exposes oil majors to extended disruptions in the 20% global oil chokepoint, but XOM and CVX's robust finances and production ramps set up margin gains. YTD stock surges of 26-28% reflect market bets on higher crack spreads, with Middle East assets (20% of output) offset by US shale strength. Bullish stance: Buy supermajors for FCF upside amid geopolitical limbo.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Sparks China Cancellations — XOM and CVX Margins Set to Surge
April 11, 2026, reports detail Hormuz crisis damaging Middle East oil/gas supplies and sparking Chinese order cancellations, tightening global markets. ExxonMobil and Chevron—fortified by $40B+ FCF, low debt, and downstream leverage—stand to gain most from elevated cracks and prices. Bullish: Buy dips for 20-30% FCF upside.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Blocked: XOM Cuts Q1 Output 6% as Oil Majors Drop 3–5%
Shipping halted in the Strait of Hormuz on April 9, 2026, as Iran imposes terms, with the US prioritizing free passage. Exxon reports 6% Q1 production cuts from related Middle East disruptions; majors' stocks fell 3-5% but YTD gains exceed 20%, backed by $50B+ FCF and low leverage. Bullish setup if oil prices surge on sustained risks.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Iran War Drives Record Capital Flight: EEM Down 12% While SPY Gains Safe-Haven Flows
Record bullish positions in EU natural gas futures are spiking volatility amid supply shocks, per Bloomberg, boosting SHEL and BP's LNG trading margins. Both delivered robust FY2025 FCF and returns, with guidance for sustained growth. Bullish on their leverage to Europe's crunch.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Libya Oil Risk Spikes as UN Embargo Breaks — What It Means for BP, CVX, XOM
Khalifa Haftar's confirmed acquisition of combat drones breaches UN sanctions, escalating risks to Libya's 1.2M bpd oil output and threatening BP's active EPSA, Chevron's Sirte bid, and Exxon's legacy exposure. Majors' strong balance sheets and recent share gains position them to weather disruptions, potentially gaining from supply-driven price pops. Investors should track NOC exports and eastern port flows for the next move.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
SHEL and BP Up 14–16% After Ust-Luga Strike — EU Supply Crunch Has Further to Run
Ukraine's April 7 strike on Russia's Ust-Luga oil port threatens EU supply, potentially boosting crude prices and refining margins for Shell and BP. Both majors showed FY2025 resilience with strong FCF and low leverage, shares up 14-16% in the past month. Bullish stance: Expect margin expansion if disruptions persist.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
SHEL and BP Up 10-16% Despite Gas Futures Plunge — Why LNG Is Their Shield
European gas futures tumbled on April 8, 2026, post-US-Iran ceasefire, easing supply fears—but SHEL and BP stocks rose 10-16% in the prior month, buoyed by LNG resilience and strong 2025 financials ($21B+ FCF each). Integrated portfolios and low leverage position them for continued outperformance. Bullish: Buy the reversal with 15% upside potential.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
At what oil price level does Gulf conflict risk trigger demand destruction in EM economies?
Gulf conflict escalation creates a geopolitical risk premium benefiting oil producers in the $80–100 Brent range, but sustained prices above $100–110 risk triggering demand destruction in import-dependent emerging markets. EOG Resources and Shell offer the best risk-adjusted positioning, while BP carries the highest combined balance sheet and operational risk.