AEE

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[AEE] Ameren Thesis 2026: $20B Capex Plan Tests Missouri Renewable Transition

Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE) FY2025 revenue ~$7.5-8B (+5-8%) with adj. EPS ~$3.80-4.50 reflecting continued post-2024 Missouri rate case + selected $20B+ FY2025-2030 capex plan deployment driving rate base growth ~6-8% CAGR + selected post-2024 IRA Section 45 PTC + 48 ITC eligibility for renewable investments + selected ~10-year continuous dividend track under continued CEO Marty Lyons (~3-year tenure since January 2022). Leading Missouri + Illinois regulated utility focused on electric + natural gas distribution + transmission. Founded 1881 in St. Louis Missouri (~144-year heritage; selected initial focus on selected St. Louis municipal electric utility); current Ameren formed December 1997 via merger of Union Electric (Missouri) + CIPSCO (Illinois) creating selected dual-state utility. Headquartered in St. Louis Missouri; ~9,000+ employees globally with ~$7.5-8B revenue. Four reporting segments: Ameren Missouri ~50% revenue ($3.7B — ~1.2M+ electric customers + ~120K+ natural gas customers in Missouri; St. Louis metropolitan + rural service territory), Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution ~20% ($1.5B — ~1.2M+ electric customers in Illinois; southern + central Illinois service territory), Ameren Illinois Natural Gas ~15% ($1.0B — ~830K+ Illinois natural gas customers), Ameren Transmission ~15% ($1B — FERC-regulated electric transmission via ATXI subsidiary + Missouri transmission). $20B+ FY2025-2030 capex plan: ~$5-7B Missouri renewable energy (solar + wind + storage; post-2024 IRA Section 45 PTC + 48 ITC eligibility) + ~$5-6B grid modernization (smart grid + reliability investments) + ~$3-5B transmission expansion (ATXI FERC-regulated + Missouri transmission) + ~$3-4B gas distribution + safety modernization + ~$2-3B coal retirements + new gas generation; rate base growth ~6-8% CAGR through FY2030 supports ~6-8% EPS growth target via regulated utility return on equity ~9-10%. Missouri renewable transition: post-2024 Missouri Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) calls for ~5-7K MW renewable additions through FY2030 + coal retirements (Sioux + Rush Island + selected coal plants) + post-2024 Missouri rate case driving rate base growth. FERC transmission growth: ATXI FERC-regulated electric transmission projects ($5-10B+ aggregate base) + MISO Long-Range Transmission Plan opportunities ($5-10B+ Tranche 1 + Tranche 2 projects). CEO Marty Lyons since January 2022 (succeeded Warner L. Baxter CEO 2014-January 2022 retired who led 2014-2022 strategic transformation including 2018 Ameren Transmission rate base expansion; Lyons ex-Ameren COO 2019-2022 + ~30-year company career). Capital return: ~$2.84-3.04 annual dividend FY2025 (~10+ year continuous track); modest buybacks; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit ratings; FCF -$1B (post-capex investment). FY2026 thesis: capex deployment continued + Missouri renewable build-out + ~11-year dividend track + FERC transmission growth. Risks: Missouri PSC disallowance, major IRA rollback, interest rate severe, major coal retirement delays.