ADM
NYSE · Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Products · US
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ADM] Archer-Daniels-Midland Thesis 2026: Nutrition Restatement Aftermath Tests Agribusiness Cycle Recovery
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company FY2025 revenue ~$84-86B (-3 to -1%) with adj. EPS ~$3.80-4.20 reflecting continued post-2022-2023 commodity cycle moderation (selected post-Russia/Ukraine grain price normalization + selected ethanol margin compression + selected oilseed crush margin normalization) + continued post-January 22, 2024 accounting restatement aftermath (Nutrition segment intersegment sales SEC investigation + selected ~$200M+ restatement adjustments) + selected operational excellence under continued CEO Juan Luciano. Leading global agribusiness firm; founded 1902 by John W. Daniels in Minneapolis Minnesota originally as Daniels Linseed Company (later merged with Archer-Daniels Linseed Company 1923 to form Archer-Daniels-Midland Company; IPO 1924); headquartered in Chicago Illinois (corporate HQ moved from Decatur Illinois 2014; substantial Decatur + Chicago + selected operations); ~38,000+ employees across selected ~200+ countries. 3 segments + Other: Ag Services & Oilseeds 62% ($53B — origination grain trading + crushing oilseed soybean/canola/sunflower + refined products refined oils + biodiesel; ~$2.5-3.0B segment operating profit) + Carbohydrate Solutions 24% ($20B — Starches & Sweeteners HFCS + glucose syrups + Vantage Corn Processors ethanol + selected industrial corn; ~$0.8-1.0B operating profit) + Nutrition 12% ($10B — Human Nutrition selected ingredient blends + flavor solutions + Animal Nutrition; selected post-2014 Wild Flavors $3B + Neovia 2019 $1.85B acquisitions; ~$0.5-0.7B operating profit post-restatement) + Other 2% ($1B). January 22, 2024 Accounting Restatement Scandal: ADM disclosed that it would delay Q4 2023 earnings release amid SEC investigation into intersegment sales accounting practices in the Nutrition segment; CFO Vikram Luthar placed on administrative leave (subsequently resigned March 2024); company restated 2018-2023 financials with selected ~$200M+ cumulative adjustments to Nutrition segment operating profit (selected intersegment transfer pricing inflated Nutrition margins; selected actual Nutrition organic margins materially lower than originally reported); selected ongoing SEC investigation + selected DOJ inquiry + selected shareholder litigation; impacted FY2024 stock price (~25-30% decline post-disclosure). CEO Juan Luciano since January 1, 2015 (succeeded Patricia Woertz CEO 2006-2015 retired; Luciano ex-ADM President + COO 2014-2015 + ex-Dow Chemical Performance Materials EVP 2009-2011 + ~30-year industrial chemicals + commodities executive career; Argentine national). Capital return: dividend $2.00-2.04/share annual (~50 consecutive year increases — Dividend King 50+) + buybacks $0.5-1.5B; investment-grade A2/A credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Nutrition restatement aftermath resolution + agribusiness cycle recovery + capital return + Dividend King continuity. Risks: agribusiness commodity cyclicality, continued SEC/DOJ investigation findings, tariff/trade exposure, weather/agricultural cycle, Bunge-Viterra merger competitive pressure (~$8.2B merger pending July 2025).
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Fertilizer Price Surge: CF's 41% Margins Lead MOS and NTR as Trump Probe Looms
Trump's April 11 pledge to curb fertilizer gouging amid Iran tensions highlights producers like CF, MOS, and NTR as winners from sustained price surges, while ADM, DE, and AGCO face margin squeezes from cost-stressed farmers. Backed by FY2025 financials, CF tops conviction with 41% margins and cheap valuation.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Iran War Oil Shock: USO Up 24%, XLE Up 8% — Which ETFs Have More Room to Run?
War disruptions choke sugar exports from a key hub, spiking prices to benefit producers ADM and BG while pressuring Hershey, Mondelez, and KDP margins. Bunge leads conviction with 32% revenue growth and attractive P/E; Hershey trails as most vulnerable.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
HIMS Stock Surges 18% After FDA Semaglutide Win — Is This the Start of a New Rally?
Supreme Court oral arguments cast doubt on Trump's birthright citizenship EO, a potential win for labor-reliant firms like MAR, HLT, HD, and MCD amid staffing woes. Financials show margin pressure but resilient FCF; stable immigration supports growth. Bullish stance with eyes on ruling.