AAON

Research · Sep 3, 2026

AAON AAON Inc Thesis 2026: Semi Custom Rooftop HVAC Drives BasX Data Center Liquid Cooling Growth

AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) FY2026 thesis centers on continued AAON Oklahoma Semi-Custom Rooftop HVAC pipeline (~$0.90-1.00B revenue) + BasX Data Center Liquid Cooling pipeline (~$0.30-0.40B revenue) under continued President + CEO Gary Fields since June 2020 (~5-year tenure as AAON CEO; selected post-June 2020 succession from Norman Asbjornson, founder/CEO 1988-2020 ~32-year tenure; selected primary architect of post-2020 strategic reset toward Data Center liquid cooling expansion + post-October 2023 ~$380M+ BasX Solutions full acquisition + post-2024 BasX Longview Texas capacity expansion). FY2025 revenue ~$1.30-1.40B (+10-18% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$2.45-2.85. AAON operates 1 primary segment (specialty engineered HVAC/cooling manufacturer) with revenue structure AAON Oklahoma ~65-72% ($0.90-1.00B) + BasX ~24-30% ($0.30-0.40B) + Other ~5-10% and geographic mix US ~95%+ with end-market mix Light Commercial + Industrial ~50-55% + Data Center ~24-30% + Educational + Healthcare ~10-15%. AAON Oklahoma Semi-Custom Rooftop HVAC pipeline (~$0.90-1.00B revenue + ~65-72% revenue mix): selected primary AAON ~5-7% aggregate US Light Commercial Rooftop HVAC market share (selected primary differentiated semi-custom engineered-to-order rooftop unit positioning vs Carrier + Trane + Lennox + Daikin mass-market rooftop; selected primary post-1988 founding semi-custom heritage) + selected various aggregate Light Commercial + Industrial + Educational + Healthcare end-market exposure + selected various aggregate ~$650-700M aggregate AAON Tulsa + Oklahoma City manufacturing footprint + selected various aggregate ~5-7 year aggregate backlog visibility. BasX Data Center Liquid Cooling pipeline (~$0.30-0.40B revenue + ~24-30% revenue mix): selected primary BasX Solutions ~#2-3 aggregate US Data Center liquid cooling specialty manufacturer (selected primary Liebert + Vertiv + Schneider Electric + STULZ + Munters competitors) + selected various aggregate ~$200-300M aggregate BasX FY2025 Data Center order book + selected various aggregate post-October 2023 ~$380M+ BasX Solutions full acquisition + selected various aggregate post-2024 BasX Longview Texas ~$140M+ aggregate capacity expansion (~$200-400M+ aggregate incremental annual capacity) + selected various aggregate Hyperscaler + Colocation + Enterprise Data Center end-market exposure + selected various aggregate Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Oracle hyperscaler AI Data Center capex cycle tailwind. Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.32 aggregate annual dividend (~12-15% payout; ~0.4-0.6% yield) + ~$25-100M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$50-130M FY2025 + net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA + investment-grade BB+/Ba1 credit rating + ~82-83M diluted shares. FY2026 base case ~$1.55-1.75B aggregate revenue + ~$2.95-3.55 adj. EPS + ~$60-160M aggregate capital return; bull case BasX Data Center Liquid Cooling pipeline acceleration (Hyperscaler + Colocation AI Data Center liquid cooling demand acceleration + BasX Longview Texas commercial capacity full ramp + FY2026 BasX revenue to ~$0.55-0.75B) + AAON Oklahoma Semi-Custom Rooftop HVAC pipeline acceleration (~+5-8% revenue growth + premium semi-custom pricing) + post-October 2023 BasX integration synergies acceleration drives ~$1.75-2.00B aggregate revenue + ~$3.35-4.00 EPS; bear case Vertiv + Schneider Electric + Eaton + STULZ + Munters + LiquidStack + Asetek Data Center liquid cooling competitive intensification + Carrier + Trane + Lennox + Daikin Light Commercial HVAC competitive intensification + Hyperscaler Data Center capex cycle weakness + AI Data Center liquid cooling vs immersion cooling architecture considerations + Light Commercial construction cycle considerations + post-2020 Gary Fields CEO succession planning considerations drives ~$1.30-1.45B revenue + ~$2.20-2.55 EPS.