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EQT

EQT Corp

EQT Corp Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 19, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

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Summary

Generated 2025-02-19

Management highlights

• 2024 was transformational with Equitrans acquisition closed in July, integration 90% complete and synergies exceeding base case. • Upstream operations saw 20% increase in completed lateral footage per day in 2024, expecting 2025 average well cost to fall by ~$70 per foot. • Fourth quarter: Production at high end of guidance, CapEx 7% below low end, operating expenses at low end, net cash from operations >$750M and free cash flow ~$600M despite low gas prices. • Reserves: Year-end 2024 approved reserves ~26 Tcfe, PV-10 ~$28B, excluding value from midstream and sales deals.

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Segment performance

No detailed breakdown of product segments with revenue contribution percentages provided in the transcript.

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Guidance

• 2025 production guidance range 2175-2275 Bcfe, midpoint 125 Bcfe above prior outlook. • 2025 maintenance capital budget $1.95B-$2.1B, growth projects $350M-$380M, reserve development capital $1.35B-$1.45B. • Expect $2.6B free cash flow in 2025, $3.3B in 2026, ~$15B cumulatively over five years at strip pricing.

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Risks

• Macro factors: Upstream underinvestment, cold winter, ramping LNG exports, pipeline constraints in Appalachia and Permian. • Counterparty risk: Non-investment grade counterparties may be reluctant to deal with non-investment grade producers. • Hedging risks: Market volatility and timing of hedging decisions impacting exposure to price scenarios.

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Q&A highlights

Q: John Abbott asks about maintenance CapEx risk and evolution A: Toby Rice and Jeremy Knop discuss asset quality, operational efficiencies, and compression projects being baked into plans with historical performance and structural fixes considered Q: Arun Jayaram asks about longer term CapEx trajectory A: Toby and Jeremy talk about maintenance CapEx trending down, compression projects pulled forward with peak spend in 2025 expected to decline thereafter Q: Kalei Akamine asks about Southgate project A: Jeremy Knop provides update on the project being on track and a holistic upstream-midstream solution Q: Neil Mehta asks about net debt reduction and long-term gas A: Jeremy Knop discusses free cash flow, balance sheet de-risking, and long-term gas market factors including U.S. supply and geopolitical impacts Q: Josh Silverstein asks about buybacks A: Jeremy Knop talks about balance sheet liquidity, opportunistic buybacks, and relative value of the stock Q: Roger Reed asks about New York gas market and chokes A: Toby and Jeremy discuss administration's energy addition, pipeline projects, and choke management for volume and pricing optimization Q: John Ennis asks about well performance improvement and growth decision A: Toby and Jeremy talk about well productivity, inventory duration, and growth strategy tied to sustainable demand and integrated platform advantage Q: Scott Hanold asks about well performance and core inventory A: Toby and Jeremy discuss inventory duration, well productivity improvements, and land leasing for maintaining and expanding inventory Q: Jacob Roberts asks about 2025 capital and midstream spend A: Toby and Jeremy talk about compression project risk being baked into plans and midstream spend dynamics Q: Michael Scialla asks about Utica vs Marcellus and MVP capacity A: Toby and Jeremy discuss Marcellus focus, MVP capacity constraints, and pipeline needs for meeting demand Q: Bert Donnes asks about data center demand and deal structure A: Toby and Jeremy talk about hyperscaler deals, EQT's differentiation via investment grade rating, inventory, and net zero credentials, and various deal structures available

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Key numbers

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Transcript

February 19, 2025

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