Central Puerto SA
Central Puerto SA Q3 FY2024 earnings call
November 11, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2024-09
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2024-11-11
Management highlights
Regulatory Updates - Cancellation of Terconf tender via Resolution 151; price adjustments in 2024 (3% in Aug, 5% in Sep, 3% in Oct); contingency plan for electricity industry with additional remuneration for certain thermal plants; extension of Piedra del Aguila hydro concession via presidential decree; dividend payment of ARS39.47 per share. ### Investment Projects - San Carlos solar farm expected to be completed Q2 2025; Brigadier Lopez combined cycle COD planned for Q4 2025. ### Argentine Electricity Market - Installed capacity changes: 42,919 MW in Q3 2024, down 1% y-o-y; generation down 3% y-o-y, driven by hydro decline (33%) due to Yacyreta allocation change and river flow reduction; nuclear up 7% due to Atucha II availability; thermal up 13% due to higher dispatch; demand up 1% to 35.6 terawatt hours, driven by residential consumption.
Segment performance
The group's installed capacity is 6,703 megawatts, with energy generation at 5,685 gigawatt hours in Q3 2024, down 1% y-o-y. Revenues for Q3 2024 were US$185 million, up 14% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA was US$93 million, almost flat y-o-y. Net income was US$40 million, doubling y-o-y. Net debt as of Sep 30, 2024, was US$149 million, a reduction of US$137 million from Dec 2023, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times. Revenue breakdown: spot market revenues up 11% (US$9M), sales under contract up 12% (US$8M), steam sales up 41% (US$3M). Generation details: hydro generation down 35%, wind down 4%, solar up due to Guanizuil Solar Farm acquisition, thermal up 21%.
Guidance
Awaits regulatory changes for thermal private PPAs and fuel acquisition. Expects EBITDA to remain similar to 2024 unless regulatory changes occur. Anticipates new thermal power tender, renewables opportunities in mining sector, and continued investment in projects like San Carlos solar farm and Brigadier Lopez combined cycle.
Risks
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in electricity tariffs, auction timelines, and fuel availability could impact operations. - Hydro Generation Risks: Dependence on river flows and Yacyreta allocation affecting hydro generation. - Market Volatility: Fluctuations in spot market remuneration, fuel prices, and demand could impact financial results.
Q&A highlights
Q: Regarding new hydro asset auctions, timeline and pricing A: Government working on an 180-day timeline to launch the auction, discussing competitive pricing and PPA intermediation with CAMMESA.
Q: Regulatory change for thermal private PPAs A: Government is working on allowing thermal private PPAs, considering fuel supply and market contractualization aspects Q: Investment plans and RIGI scheme A: Expecting a new thermal power tender, exploring renewables in the mining sector, and opportunities in the forest business Q: Thermal plant dispatch and gas availability A: Dual-fuel units, marginally impacted by gas pipelines; not expecting huge dispatch impact, but reducing gas imports from Bolivia and switching to Vaca Muerta gas Q: Summer contingency plan impact and dividends A: Contingency plan has small EBITDA impact; dividends paid based on cash flow and growth opportunities
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
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Transcript
November 11, 2024Full transcript unavailable for redistribution
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