Will SpaceX and AI Unicorns' Expected 2026 IPOs End the US Public Markets Bottleneck?
A fresh See It Market analysis dropped this week, declaring the 2026 US IPO bottleneck finally easing—with high-profile public offerings from SpaceX and a swarm of AI unicorns poised to flood the market. This isn't just hype: after years of private valuations soaring past public peers, the report flags pent-up supply ready to unleash, potentially injecting billions in underwriting fees back into Wall Street's coffers. For investors in Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and innovation plays like ARKK, this could mark the turnaround from a drought that's hammered investment banking revenues.
Investment Banks Gear Up for IPO Fee Surge
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, perennial IPO kingpins, stand to gain most. MS's investment banking revenues rocketed 23% YoY to $7.6 billion in FY2025, per its latest 10-K, fueled by higher equity underwriting—including convertibles and IPOs—and advisory fees from ramping M&A. Equity underwriting specifically jumped on IPO volume, while fixed income added non-investment grade loans. GS mirrored this: Global Banking & Markets net revenues hit a record $41.5 billion in 2025, up 18% YoY, with investment banking fees climbing 21% to $9.3 billion. Advisory soared 34% to $4.7 billion, equity underwriting edged up 6%, and debt underwriting rose 12%.
| Metric (FY2025) | Morgan Stanley | Goldman Sachs |
|---|---|---|
| IB Revenues | $7.6B (+23%) | $9.3B (+21%) |
| Equity Underwriting | Higher IPOs/convertibles | $1.8B (+6%) |
| Advisory | Higher M&A | $4.7B (+34%) |
| Net Revenues (GBM/IB) | $114.9B total rev | $41.5B GBM (+18%) |
Both firms' Q4 2025 earnings calls brimmed with optimism. MS flagged "healthy" investment banking pipelines and an IPO market reopening, with NII expected flat in Q1 2026 before trending higher. GS called 2026 "constructive," citing M&A momentum (advising on $1T+ YTD) and sponsor activity up 40%. Backlogs are swelling: GS's IB fees backlog surged QoQ on advisory and equity, while MS noted lower-but-rebounding M&A versus long-term averages.
Recent price action tells a different story—MS down 14% YTD, GS off 13%—reflecting broader market jitters and rate sensitivity. But at 17.3x TTM P/E for MS (market cap $283B) and 17.4x for GS ($268B), valuations scream value if IPOs deliver. Compare to tech giants: GOOGL trades at 29x with 15% revenue growth TTM, MSFT at 23x on 17% growth. Banks' lower multiples (PS 2.5x MS, 2.2x GS) offer upside leverage to fee recovery.
Tech Giants and ETFs Ride the AI Unicorn Wave
SpaceX's rumored 2026 debut—valuing Elon Musk's rocket empire at $350B+ privately—could dwarf recent blockbusters, with underwriters like MS and GS likely lead managers given past Starlink deals. AI unicorns (think xAI, Anthropic) add fuel: private AI valuations hit $100B+ combined, per reports, mirroring the 2021 frenzy but with real revenue ramps.
GOOGL and MSFT, AI infrastructure behemoths, indirectly benefit. GOOGL's Cloud revenue exploded 48% in Q4 2025, backlog up 46% QoQ on AI demand; CapEx guidance balloons to $175-185B in 2026. MSFT's Cloud crossed $50B quarterly, up 26%, with Azure AI Foundry at 80K customers. Yet their roles may extend to advisory or ecosystem plays—GOOGL's Waymo just raised billions, hinting at spin-off IPO potential.
ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF), Cathie Wood's unicorn proxy, could shine brightest. Though lacking direct snapshot data, ARKK's mandate targets disruptive IPOs like these. Recent news underscores the thesis: MS launched a Bitcoin ETF, GS Alternatives backed senior care AI (Sage, $65M round), signaling readiness for tech listings. ARKK's TTM revenue growth lags banks but positions for 20-30% upside if unicorns list at premiums.
| Recent Financial Snapshot | MS | GS | GOOGL | MSFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $283B | $268B | $3.9T | $2.8T |
| P/E TTM | 17.3x | 17.4x | 29.2x | 23.3x |
| Revenue Growth TTM | 11.5% | -1.8% | 15.1% | 16.7% |
| Price Return 1Y | +32% | +44% | +86% | +3% |
The Bottleneck's Real Cost—and 2026 Payoff
The IPO freeze crushed fees: MS equity underwriting dipped pre-2025 on sparse listings; GS backlog shrank on advisory lulls. But 2025 marked inflection—MS Q1 IB up 8% QoQ, GS Q4 fees +25% YoY. See It Market's call aligns: maturing privates (SpaceX cash-flow positive, AI firms monetizing) plus regulatory tailwinds (eased SPAC stigma) clear the path.
Bull case: $50B+ in 2026 IPO proceeds (conservative, vs. 2021's $150B) yields $2-3B fees split among top banks. MS/GS could see IB margins hit 25%+, boosting ROTCE to 22%+ (MS at 21.6% now). ARKK surges on holdings like Roku, CRISPR rerating.
Risks loom: Volatility spikes (VIX >30?) or macro shocks could delay. GS net debt/EBITDA at 18.5x, MS current ratio solid but rate-sensitive NII.
Buy the dip on MS and GS—target 20-25% upside to $120/$600 by mid-2026. Monitor Q1 fee prints and SpaceX S-1 whispers. Next catalysts: GS's $32B buyback execution, MS's $1/share dividend hike, and ARKK's first unicorn lockups.