PPI Inflation Data Looms This Week: Which Stagflation Winners Will Crush Goldman Sachs and Netflix Earnings?
Markets are zeroing in on the upcoming March PPI inflation report—due this week alongside first-quarter earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Netflix (NFLX)—as pivotal tests for investor nerves. With recent data showing persistent price pressures and US growth forecasts cooling, these events could ignite or extinguish stagflation trades. The question: In a world of sticky inflation and sluggish expansion, who thrives while growth-sensitive names falter?
Stagflation—a toxic brew of rising prices and economic slowdown—has resurfaced as a macro worry in 2026. Core CPI has hovered above 3% for months, while GDP growth estimates for Q1 have been trimmed to under 1.5% annualized. Energy costs, commodity pressures, and supply snarls keep inflation elevated, even as consumer spending and hiring slow. This setup favors inflation hedges like energy, gold, and defensive staples, while punishing cyclical banks and high-growth tech. With PPI expected to show another hot reading, let's break down five key players: three clear winners and two at risk.
Exxon Mobil (XOM): Energy Powerhouse Fuels Stagflation Profits
Exxon Mobil stands out as a stagflation superstar. Higher energy prices from geopolitical tensions and supply constraints directly boost its upstream revenue, shielding it from growth slowdowns. In FY2025 (ended December 2025), Exxon reported revenue of $324 billion, down slightly TTM due to volatile oil prices but with operating income of $34 billion and free cash flow of $24 billion.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $635B |
| P/E TTM | 22.9x |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 10.3x |
| Gross Margin TTM | 21.7% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 10.5% |
| Revenue Growth TTM | -4.5% |
| EPS Growth TTM | -15.2% |
| Price Return 1M/3M | +7.6% / +33.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.68% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.27x |
Recent earnings calls highlight Guyana's Yellowtail project ramping to 875,000 bpd and Permian records at 1.8M boe/d, with tech like lightweight proppant cutting costs. Guidance points to upstream production exceeding 2.5M boe/d post-2030. Verdict: Strong buy in stagflation—cheap valuation, fat cash flows, and inflation tailwinds make XOM the top-ranked winner.
Newmont (NEM): Gold Miner Shines as Inflation Hedge
Gold miners like Newmont thrive when real yields stay low and inflation bites, as investors flock to bullion. NEM's exposure to rising gold prices (hovering near all-time highs) positions it perfectly. FY2025 revenue hit $22.1 billion, with net income jumping to $7.1 billion and FCF at $7.3 billion—doubling from prior year on higher production and prices.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $132B |
| P/E TTM | 18.9x |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 8.4x |
| Gross Margin TTM | 49.8% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 46.9% |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +18.6% |
| EPS Growth TTM | +119.5% |
| Price Return 1M/3M | -9.9% / +10.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.84% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.01x |
Reserves stand at 118M ounces, with Ahafo North online and Tanami expansion advancing. 2026 guidance: 5.3M oz production at $1,680/oz AISC. Recent dips offer a buying window. Verdict: Bullish—NEM ranks second for its leverage to gold amid sticky CPI/PPI, with pristine balance sheet.
Costco (COST): Staples Retailer Defies Slowdown
Consumer staples like Costco weather stagflation by passing on price hikes while loyal members keep volumes steady. Its bulk model and Kirkland private label insulate against inflation, even as discretionary spending cools. FY2025 (ended August 2025) revenue reached $275 billion, net income $8.1 billion, FCF $7.8 billion.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $443B |
| P/E TTM | 51.8x |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 30.8x |
| Gross Margin TTM | 12.9% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 3.8% |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +8.4% |
| EPS Growth TTM | +12.2% |
| Price Return 1M/3M | -1.0% / +16.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.26x |
Earnings emphasized 28 new warehouses in FY26, digital enhancements, and tariff strategies like domestic sourcing. Comp sales grew in fresh foods. Verdict: Solid winner—third-ranked for resilient growth, though premium valuation caps upside vs. XOM/NEM.
Goldman Sachs (GS): Bank Vulnerable to Growth Stall
Banks like Goldman suffer in stagflation: slowing growth crimps lending and dealmaking, while higher rates squeeze net interest margins if loans falter. Upcoming Q1 earnings could disappoint if PPI stokes Fed pause fears. FY2025 revenue $125 billion, net income $17.2 billion, but FCF was negative $47 billion on investment swings.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $269B |
| P/E TTM | 17.5x |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 11.2x |
| Gross Margin TTM | 47.5% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 17.5% |
| Revenue Growth TTM | -1.8% |
| EPS Growth TTM | +26.4% |
| Price Return 1M/3M | -13.2% / -8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.71% |
| Debt/Equity | 4.88x |
High debt/equity (4.9x) amplifies risks. Verdict: Bear—most exposed loser; avoid ahead of earnings.
Netflix (NFLX): Streaming Growth Hit by Discretionary Cuts
High-growth streamers like Netflix falter when consumers tighten belts amid inflation. Ad-tier expansion helps, but subscriber adds could miss if slowdown bites. FY2025 revenue $45.2 billion, net income $10.9 billion, FCF $9.5 billion.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $437B |
| P/E TTM | 39.8x |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 14.6x |
| Gross Margin TTM | 48.5% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 29.5% |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +15.9% |
| EPS Growth TTM | +27.6% |
| Price Return 1M/3M | +23.6% / +0.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.54x |
2026 guidance: $51B revenue, 31.5% margins, but live events and games are unproven. Verdict: Cautious bear—second loser; rich multiple vulnerable to macro shift.
Ranked Conviction: Winners Dominate Stagflation Setup
- XOM (top pick: valuation + cash flow king). 2. NEM (gold leverage). 3. COST (defensive growth). Avoid GS and NFLX—cyclicals most at risk.
Risks: PPI undershoots (deflation scare), Fed cuts spark risk-on (hurting hedges), or oil/gold prices crash on demand collapse. Watch: Post-PPI VIX spike >25, GS trading revenue miss, or 10Y real yield <0% for confirmation.