XCEL ENERGY INC Q3 FY2024 earnings call

• Delivered solid operational and financial progress, investing $2 billion in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure.
• Reaffirmed 2024 ongoing earnings guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 per share and initiated 2025 guidance of $3.75 to $3.85 per share.
• Introduced a $45 billion 5-year capital investment plan focusing on clean energy, customer electrification, new load growth, and safety/reliability.
• Data center pipeline: Nearly 9,000 megawatts of opportunities before 2030, expecting to secure 25% of this pipeline in the 5-year forecast period.
• Clean energy transition: Settled Upper Midwest resource plan, filed Colorado Just Transition solicitation, and working on SPS solicitation.
• Wildfire risk reduction: Progress on mitigation efforts, with plans to file Texas resiliency plan in Q4.
• Community service: 14th annual day of service with 2,200 volunteers contributing nearly 8,000 hours to 125 projects.

Xcel Energy had ongoing earnings of $1.25 per share for the third quarter of 2024. Year-to-date weather and leap year adjusted electric sales increased 0.2%, with third quarter weather adjusted sales up 1.3%. The full-year O&M forecast was revised to a 3% to 4% increase relative to 2023, primarily driven by increased generation maintenance, damage prevention, wildfire mitigation, and storm expenses.

• Reaffirmed 2024 ongoing earnings guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 per share.
• Initiated 2025 ongoing earnings guidance of $3.75 to $3.85 per share (7% growth from 2024 midpoint).
• Updated long-term EPS growth objective to 6% to 8% (upper half of range) and dividend growth objective to 4% to 6% (low end).
• Introduced a $45 billion 5-year capital investment plan.

• Nonrecurring charges related to the extended outage at Sherco plant in 2011.
• Potential unexpected outcomes from wildfire litigation.
• Increased costs from excess liability insurance renewal impacting O&M expenses.
• Regulatory decisions on rate cases and resource plans could affect earnings.

Q: Nicholas Campanella asked about the location of a large data center land acquisition, its inclusion in the forecast, and financing.

A: Brian Van Abel stated it was in Minnesota, part of high-probability loads, and Brian discussed the equity financing with a 40%-60% mix plan.

Q: Steve Fleishman inquired about wildfire mitigation actions and insurance impact.

A: Bob Frenzel talked about wildfire protection mechanisms and Brian Van Abel mentioned regulatory deferrals for insurance costs.

Q: Jeremy Tonet asked about EPS CAGR and milestones for incremental CapEx.

A: Brian Van Abel outlined near-term milestones like MISO tranche 2.1 decision and SPP ITP approvals, with Bob Frenzel emphasizing transmission capabilities.

Q: Julien Dumoulin-Smith asked about wildfire derisking and EPSS/PSPS.

A: Bob Frenzel explained current capabilities and the need for more granular segmentation of the system.

Q: Durgesh Chopra asked about equity timing and transferability.

A: Brian Van Abel mentioned $400-500 million of transferability monetization in 2024 and ongoing efforts for 2025.

Q: Ross Fowler asked about Marshall Fire trial and rate trajectory.

A: Bob Frenzel discussed the trial structure and Brian Van Abel explained bill impacts and customer headroom from growth.

Q: Sophie Karp asked about Minnesota Commission settlements.

A: Brian Van Abel noted unanimous settlement in gas case and progress on resource plan with stakeholders.

Q: Travis Miller asked about green hydrogen.

A: Bob Frenzel stated no inclusion in capital forecast and it's too early in resource plans.

Q: Paul Patterson asked about rate trajectory and data centers.

A: Brian Van Abel explained 2.2% rate growth in Colorado and the data center pipeline's high probability and conservative nature.