Vista Energy SAB de CV Q4 FY2024 earnings call

• 2024 was an outstanding year with double-digit production and adjusted EBITDA growth. Production in Q4 2024 was 51% higher year-over-year and 17% higher quarter-over-quarter.
• Secured new drilling, completion, and oil treatment/transportation capacity. In 2024, new well connections increased from 31 in 2023 to 50.
• Total production for 2024 averaged 69.7 million boe per day, up 36% from 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year.
• Made progress on sustainability: reduced Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 28%, with greenhouse gas intensity at 8.8 kg CO2 equivalent per boe, a 44% decrease from 2023.
• Expanded oil tracking transportation capacity to 37,000 barrels per day and secured rigs/frac sets to guide 52-60 new well connections in 2025.

In Q4 2024, total production was 85.3 million boe per day, with oil production at 73.5 million barrels per day. Total revenues were $471 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $273 million. Free cash flow was $57 million. For the full year 2024, average production was 69.7 million boe per day, adjusted EBITDA reached $1.1 billion. Production grew 36% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA expanded 25% compared to 2023. Oil production contributed significantly to revenues, with exports increasing and domestic sales at export parity prices.

• For 2025, guidance is production of 95,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil per day, implying 35%-40% growth.
• CapEx is expected to be between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion.
• Vaca Muerta Sur project has an estimated total investment of around $3 billion, with Vista's equity investment in the range of $120 million to $180 million.
• Expect Oldelval pipeline to reach full capacity by quarter-end 2025.

• Oil price volatility: Realized oil prices can fluctuate, impacting revenues and adjusted EBITDA.
• Currency impacts: Peso inflation and exchange rate fluctuations can affect lifting costs and CapEx.
• Regulatory changes: Changes in capital controls or other regulations could impact operations and growth plans.
• Midstream capacity challenges: Delays or issues with midstream projects like Oldelval or Vaca Muerta Sur could hinder production growth.

Q: Please talk about production setup for Q1 2025 and trajectory throughout the year.

A: Miguel mentioned Q1 2025 may have flat to slightly lower production sequentially due to logistics and contractual factors related to Oldelval expansion ramp-up. Production is expected to ramp up in Q3 and Q4 2025.

Q: Update on Vaca Muerta Sur project status.

A: Progress on Vaca Muerta Sur includes signed shareholder documents, firm transportation secured, and project estimated to be ready in mid-2027. Vista's equity investment in the project is expected to be $120 million to $180 million.

Q: Metrics and risks in deciding to bring additional drilling rigs.

A: Key factors include midstream project capacity and Brent prices. If midstream capacity is in place and Brent prices are within forecast range, additional rigs may be considered.

Q: Impact of Oldelval pipeline completion on costs.

A: Oldelval pipeline completion will reduce trucking costs, with impact on EBITDA as trucking costs decrease starting in Q2 2025.

Q: Views on M&A environment in Vaca Muerta.

A: Vista is disciplined, pragmatic, and opportunistic on M&A, looking at opportunities that match its focus on Vaca Muerta shale oil.

Q: Impact of Brent price changes on operations and CapEx.

A: If realized oil prices are between $65-$67, current CapEx plan may be maintained. If prices go below $55, CapEx plan may be revised. Vista has flexible CapEx with short cycle to adjust.

Q: Impact of Super Peso on lifting costs and CapEx.

A: Lifting costs were $4.7 per boe in Q4 2024, with lower impact expected in 2025 due to economy of scale and decelerating peso inflation. CapEx for wells is between $14M-$14.5M, with a task force working on improving well construction efficiency.

Q: Why not accelerate production growth by bringing more equipment?

A: It's about finding a sweet spot balancing activity intensity and optimizing NPV. Vista is growing fast with a best-in-class operational track record and believes it's still undervalued despite high multiples.

Q: Impact of lifting capital controls on Vista.

A: Lifting capital controls would benefit the industry, making it more competitive by attracting more investment and increasing service company capacity.

Q: Consideration of hedging policy for Brent pricing volatility.

A: Vista is naturally hedged as a low-cost producer with short cycle CapEx, allowing flexibility to adjust, and sees no need for formal hedging policy.