Restaurant Brands International Inc. Q4 FY2024 earnings call

• Business Overview:
  • Josh提到2024年公司克服挑战，同店销售增长2.3%，净餐厅增长3.4%，系统销售增长5.4%，有机调整后营业利润增长9%，品牌通过菜单创新和运营改进提升体验。
  • 强调质量、服务和便利的重要性，通过提升团队培训和升级设备加强运营，各品牌在产品满意度等方面取得进展。
• Segment Highlights:
  • Tim Hortons：加拿大同店销售增长强劲，连续15个季度客流量正增长，Q4表现优异，未来继续创新和扩张。
  • International：作为强劲增长引擎，2024年同店销售和系统销售增长良好，关注高ARS市场发展。
  • Burger King美国和加拿大：执行改造和运营计划，提升品牌竞争力，计划加速特许经营转换。
  • Popeyes：通过协议修改和运营改进推动品牌发展，计划全面推广Easy to Run计划。
  • Firehouse Subs：2024年虽有挑战，但2025年发展前景良好。
• Financial and Outlook:
  • Sami提到2024年财务结果，2025年预期有机调整后营业利润增长8%以上，Tim Hortons加拿大恢复单位增长，Burger King China有望解决对长期目标的影响，CapEx等有相关指引。
  • Patrick强调 franchisee profitability的重要性，各品牌在 franchisee profitability方面的进展。

Tim Hortons

• 2024年表现强劲，首次超过10亿加元的调整后营业利润（AOI）。加拿大同店销售2024年增长4.3%，显著超过市场平均水平，第四季度增长2.5%，主要由客流量驱动，实现连续15个季度的正客流量增长。Q4上午时段销售表现优异，早餐三明治和卷饼等增长显著，还推出了新鲜打碎的加拿大炒蛋等创新，下午时段通过推出薄饼披萨等拓展业务，冷饮增长超6%，新咖啡机测试效果 promising。

International

• 2024年国际业务同店销售增长3.3%，第四季度增长4.7%，系统销售增长10%，净餐厅增长6.1%。最大市场如澳大利亚、西班牙、英国、巴西等表现良好，尽管中国汉堡王（BK China）有净关闭，但整体对系统销售影响 minor。未来重点关注高ARS市场如西欧和澳大利亚，Popeyes英国等增长显著。

Burger King美国和加拿大

• 2024年同店销售增长1%，第四季度美国同店销售增长1.5%。执行“Reclaim the Flame Plan”，通过菜单创新、运营改进和餐厅现代化提升品牌。2024年完成370次改造，2025年计划继续推进改造，目标2028年实现85%以上的现代化形象，还计划提前开始部分门店的特许经营转换。

Popeyes

• 2024年净餐厅增长3.7%，系统销售增长4.2%。约85%的餐厅承诺修改特许经营协议，以增加媒体投资和统一餐厅形象，承诺测试更高的全国广告费率，到2030年大部分餐厅实现现代化形象。同时推进Easy to Run计划，标准化流程、增强技术并更新厨房设备，计划在200个门店测试18个月后全面推广。

Firehouse Subs

• 2024年全年同店销售下降约1%，但第四季度有5个百分点的环比改善。2024年净新增餐厅80家，2025年发展管道更强，有望实现加速扩张。

• 2025年预期有机调整后营业利润增长8%以上。
• Tim Hortons加拿大将恢复正的单位增长。
• Burger King China有望解决，将影响长期增长目标的实现。
• 2025年调整后净利息费用预计在500-520百万美元范围。
• 2025年CapEx预计400-450百万美元，主要用于餐厅改造和发展。

• Burger King China面临地缘政治压力和发展不确定性，可能影响长期增长目标。
• 宏观经济环境不确定，可能影响消费者支出，从而影响各品牌销售。
• 咖啡等商品成本上涨可能影响供应链利润和定价策略。
• 汇率波动可能对AOI产生影响，如美元兑加元、欧元每变化0.01，分别对AOI产生约8百万和4百万美元的年度影响。

Q: On 2025, the adjusted operating income growth you stated that you anticipated on algorithm year of 8% plus just from a real high level, can you help us understand the same-store sales range you're assuming to get there, do you need to be in line with your 3% long-term target to achieve that operating income growth, or do you have additional cost efficiencies built in like we saw in 2024?

A: Hey Brian, it's Sami. Good morning and thanks for the question. Look, I think when we put out our algorithm last year, we talked about our algorithm being a five-year, kind of, growth outlook for the business. And some years would be on and some years would be off, but on average that was the target. We're not going to get into the specifics of the top line components of what that looks like on a year-to-year basis, but we do feel good about the AOI bottom line guidance that we provided of 8% plus growth this year. I think there are puts and takes to all of that. Obviously, same store sales is a component. And we feel really good about the marketing programs we have planned for this year as well as the operational improvements we see across the business that will help deliver on that 8% plus AOI growth for this year.

Q: Great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. I guess first as a clarification, I guess just given that the BK China situation as it relates to development, we're sort of waiting on that for color on '25 Nug. So just wanted to confirm that, guys? And then the question, if I could, is just as it relates to BK and Tim's brands in their home markets in '25 against seemingly a difficult macro, still tough promotional backdrop, seemingly. If you could just kind of speak to that, how you think about the two brands and this year in their markets, is it fair to assume that some of the key '24 sales drivers will also support growth in '25, or does that look a little different, if any color there?

A: Hey, Dennis, thanks for the questions. I'll take it and I'll pass it over to Josh just to clarify, as I said in the prepared remarks, we're in active discussions on the Burger King China situation and we can't speculate on sort of the outcomes, but we expect to have a resolution relatively soon. And following that resolution, we will update you with any potential implications on energy targets. Josh Kobza: And Dennis, I'll take the second part on kind of marketing plans across Burger King and Tims in their home markets for this year. I think you alluded to it well. I think you'll see a lot of building upon some of the things that really worked for the businesses in '24 with a couple of new twists and innovations. And maybe just to recap that in terms of Burger King, I think we have an excellent calendar for the year and I think it's balanced across a few different things that have been working well for us. One of them has been families, and we've done some great partnerships. You saw it with the Adams family in 2024. Those kinds of things are really resonating when we have the right partnerships with the right properties and we do really compelling innovation that leverages our core equities like the Whopper and Flame grilling. So I think you can expect to see a couple of really fun ones that I think will bring a lot of families and kids into the restaurants in2025. You'll also see us focus on the Whopper again. We had some very successful activations, things like the Million Dollar Whoppers where we had guest created versions of the Whopper that really appealed to guests and I think puts the Whopper in the right place as a premium product. So you should expect to see more Whopper innovation in 2025. You'll also -- you should also expect to see us focus very much on quality across the menu. And quality comes from a lot of different places. It can be working with our suppliers on upgraded recipes, but there are also really important elements that come from operations. As you'll see us focused a lot on training. You've seen us focused on upgrading our equipment, which has a big impact on our ability to deliver the quality that we want to consistently across the restaurant base. So I think you'll see a continued focus on elevating quality in the system. And lastly, we will continue to bring news to value. We've done that now in the first part of the year with our $5 duos and $7 trios. So I think you can expect some refreshed messaging and mechanics on the value side just to keep that relevant and fresh for our guests. So that's what I would look for on the Burger King side. On Tim's similar story, where we've been focused for a while on PM food and cold bev. So you'll see more of that. I think what might be a little bit new and incremental this year is we've got some really exciting breakfast innovation that's coming out, too. You probably saw some news on Scrambled Eggs. That's one of the things that we're excited about for this year. And we might have some celebrity collaborations to go along with some of these innovations, too, that we think will be pretty engaging for our guest base in Canada. So hopefully that gives you a little bit of an overview. We're building a lot on the things that have worked but keeping them fresh and new and adding a few new things. And we're pretty confident in the plans for this year.