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PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP

PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP Q1 FY2025 earnings call

May 9, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2025-03

EPS · actual vs est

$0.39 / $0.44Miss -10.6%

Revenue · actual vs est

$12.01B / $14.05BMiss -14.5%
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Summary

Generated 2025-05-09

Management highlights

• Market environment: Ongoing trade tariff uncertainty and OPEC dissension have led to lower commodity prices, but a lower price environment is seen as reinforcing cyclical nature of commodity markets. • Segment highlights: NGL segment's transition to fee-based earnings continues with projects like the 30,000 barrel a day fractionation bottleneck project at Fort Sask placed into service. Crude segment had strategic transactions, including acquiring remaining 50% equity in Cheyenne Pipeline and Black Knight Midstream. • Capital allocation: Committed to returning cash to unitholders via distribution growth, with unit repurchases as an opportunistic component. Focus on efficient growth strategy, generating free cash flow, maintaining flexible balance sheet with leverage at low end of target range.

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Segment performance

Crude segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $559 million in the first quarter, impacted by winter weather and higher refinery downtime. NGL segment reported segment adjusted EBITDA of $189 million, benefiting from higher frac spreads and NGL sales volumes. The NGL segment has approximately 80% of its estimated C3+ Spec products sales hedged for 2025.

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Guidance

• Assuming $60 to $65 WTI environment persists for remainder of year, 2025 EBITDA guidance and Permian growth outlook could be in lower half of respective ranges. • NGL segment has approximately 80% of estimated C3+ Spec products sales hedged for 2025. • 2025 adjusted free cash flow expected to be about $1.1 billion, excluding changes in assets and liabilities, reduced by ~$635 million for acquisitions.

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Risks

• Ongoing uncertainty on trade tariffs weighing on economic forecasts and creating volatility. • Dissension among OPEC members and prospects of incremental supply leading to lower commodity prices than anticipated at start of year.

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Q&A highlights

Q: About capital allocation, thoughts on shifting from distribution growth to buybacks given volatility?

A: Al Swanson states focus remains on distribution growth as primary cash return method, with unit repurchases as opportunistic component. No change in thinking around opportunistic and market dislocation.

Q: On M&A landscape, impact of volatility on deals?

A: Willie Chiang says more volatile markets create questions, but good deals take time to get win-win. Positioned well to pursue opportunities with ample supply of opportunities and capital discipline. Expect to get more win-win deals throughout year.

Q: Cadence of earnings in Canada with fractionation complex up?

A: Chris Chandler says 30,000 barrels a day frac complex at Fort Sask ramped over remainder of year and into next year, with related NGL and condensate gathering expansions throughout 2025, gradually contributing to earnings.

Q: Benefits and reasons for Black Knight Midstream deal?

A: Chris Chandler says it's in core Northern Midland Basin, has long-term capital synergies, and fits win-win model with private equity partner and long-term asset ownership.

Q: Permian volumes outlook and producer conversations?

A: Jeremy Goebel says producers are wait and see due to volatility. Volatility started a month ago, so short-term activity may not change much, but longer term tied to price and time. Our guidance for 2025 is predicated on price range, but volatility is recent.

Q: Acquisition multiples for bolt-on deals?

A: Jeremy Goebel says both deals hit return thresholds or higher, fitting model of previous acquisitions with capital discipline and focusing on return rates and synergy compression.

Q: CapEx spend and 2026 outlook?

A: Chris Chandler says 2025 CapEx guidance unchanged at $400 million net to Plains, with projects in NGL and Permian. 2026 CapEx not guided yet but expected to be in $300 million to $400 million range.

Q: Hedging philosophy and frac spread?

A: Jeremy Goebel says hedging strategy is consistent, taking fundamental view, being opportunistic around hedging due to backwardated market, with more hits in front end than back end, consistent with past years.

Q: Permian production sensitivity and hedging?

A: Jeremy Goebel says guidance for Permian production is for full year, underlying assumption related to market pricing of marginal barrel. Hedging strategy is consistent, maintaining steady cash flow with targeted hedging.

Q: Volume recovery in April and May and long-haul throughput?

A: Jeremy Goebel says volume recovery was due to production coming back online and deferral of completions due to weather. Long-haul throughput tied to downstream demand and refinery ramp-up. Longer-term Permian growth profile unchanged, just timing may differ.

Q: M&A opportunities and sellers in volatile landscape?

A: Willie Chiang says there are broad opportunities with partners, creating win-win situations through network and relationships, not just asset bid-ask. Dynamics involve back-and-forth with partners to create value.

Q: Capital allocation and leverage view?

A: Willie Chiang says committed to returning cash to unitholders via distribution growth and bolt-ons. Leverage at lower end of range, with ability to use capacity for strategic investments. Al Swanson adds leverage is a range, no desire to be at bottom end sustainably, and BBB rating is a consideration to avoid jeopardizing ratings.

View in transcript ↓

Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$0.39$0.44-10.6%$0.41
Revenue$12.01B$14.05B-14.5%$11.99B

Transcript

May 9, 2025

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