National CineMedia, Inc.
National CineMedia, Inc. Q4 FY2024 earnings call
March 6, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2025-03-06
Management highlights
• Box office performance: Fourth quarter 2024 box office $2.4 billion (+26% YOY), full-year $8.6 billion. Notable movies include 'Wicked Part One' ($433M), 'Moana 2' ($404M), etc. Thanksgiving weekend 2024 broke records, Dec 2024 was 5th highest-grossing month since 2019. • Audience demographics: Core audience Gen Z and Millennials accounted for 69% of Q4 viewership, 38% Gen Z. 18-34 age group had 57M attendees with 6.1 weekly rating. • Advertising growth: 25 new advertisers in Q4, retail top category, wireless/insurance growing. Scatter market participation increased to 45% vs. 29% prior year. • NCMx platform: Playing increasing role, supporting key performance indicators for retail advertisers, nearly half of sales revenue supported by NCMx initiatives.
Segment performance
For the fourth quarter of 2024, National CineMedia, Inc. reported revenue of $86.3 million, which exceeded the revenue guide of $82 million to $86 million. Adjusted OIBDA was $35 million, surpassing the guidance range of $28 to $30 million. National advertising revenue decreased to $69.2 million compared to $71.9 million in the prior year's fourth quarter, local and regional advertising revenue was $13.5 million vs. $16.2 million prior year. Full-year 2024 revenue was $240.8 million, adjusted OIBDA $45.7 million. National advertising revenue for the year was $188 million vs. $198.1 million prior year, local and regional was $39.1 million vs. $51.1 million prior year.
Guidance
• First quarter 2025: Expected revenue between $34M-$36M, adjusted OIBDA between negative $9.5M and negative $7.5M due to softer slate and seasonal advertising slowdown. • Second quarter 2025: Pacing well ahead of prior year, signaling positive momentum. • 2025 plans: Expected SG&A expenses to increase high single-digit percentage, capital expenditures to increase $2M-$3M for IT, sales tech, etc.
Risks
• Temporary advertising headwinds due to unfavorable mix of harder-to-monetize G and PG-rated movies, short holiday window, election impacting ad spend decisions. • Tariff uncertainty and government spending reductions leading advertisers to delay spend.
Q&A highlights
Q: Provide more detail on temporary nature of advertising headwinds, especially second half expectations A: Tom notes Q2 pacing is encouraging vs prior year, first quarter odd to forecast but Q2 looks good Q: Details on KPI-based ad sales supporting advertiser retention A: Half of business supported by NCMx, significant piece of daily operations, encouraged by client attention Q: Number of pre-pandemic advertisers not yet returned A: Tom says need to calculate but will provide in short order Q: Expectations for attendance growth in 2025-2026 A: Tom says in sync with industry forecasts, 2025 and 2026 look strong with focused sales team Q: Advertiser sentiment compared to prior years A: Tom says sentiment good now, no industry surprises, lined up with key capabilities including data Q: Chances of better upfront season in 2025 A: Tom thinks better upfront than last year, cleanest since 2019 Q: Advertiser demand for premium screens A: Tom says everyone wants premium screens, tied to platinum inventory, big advertisers focus on it Q: Local and regional business outlook in 2025-2026 A: Tom says reinvested in local sales team, optimistic for comeback
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.26 | $0.20 | +30.0% | $0.24 |
| Revenue | $86.3M | $84.8M | +1.8% | $90.9M |
Transcript
March 6, 2025Full transcript unavailable for redistribution
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