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LPX

LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP

LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 19, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

EPS · actual vs est

$1.03 / $0.79Beat +30.4%

Revenue · actual vs est

$681.0M / $726.1MMiss -6.2%
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Summary

Generated 2025-02-19

Management highlights

  • Q4 2024 was a strong finish for siding, which set records for net sales and EBITDA in 2024. OSB executed its strategy effectively, growing structural solutions and managing capacity. - In 2024, siding saw growth in all product categories and geographies, driven by new product innovation, demand creation, and superior product offerings. - Focus in 2025 is on share gains, volume growth, increasing investments in new product innovation, demand creation, and capacity expansion, with plans for significant CapEx in 2025 and 2026 to meet growing demand.
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Segment performance

Siding: In Q4 2024, siding sales grew by 9% compared to the prior year. For the full year 2024, siding sales increased by 17% to $1.56 billion. The siding business achieved an EBITDA margin of 25% for the full year. OSB: In Q4 2024, lower prices impacted the segment, but higher volumes and improved OEE helped recover some revenue and EBITDA. For the full year 2024, OSB had net sales of approximately $1.2 billion and EBITDA of around $298 million.

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Guidance

  • Siding: Q1 2025 revenue expected $390M-$400M, growth 9%-11%, EBITDA $95M-$105M. Full year 2025 revenue expected $1.65B-$1.7B, growth 7%-9%, EBITDA $450M-$475M, margin ~25%. - OSB: Q1 2025 EBITDA expected $35M-$45M, cycle average EBITDA adjusted to ~$65K per thousand sq ft for second to fourth quarters. Guidance assumes current tariff state continues.
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Risks

  • Tariff impacts not incorporated in guidance due to insufficient clarity. - Speculative raw material inflation, including labor and paper overlay costs. - Potential delays in capacity expansion timing and associated risks with scaling up production.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Comment on Lennar pull-through A: Ramped into full contract execution with Lennar, performing as expected within the bounds of the agreement Q: Shift to structural solutions in OSB A: Small investments in structural solutions, with rare constraints, and incremental margin from structural solutions Q: Siding margin and offsetting factors A: Margin at 25% includes ~$20M inflation, labor, raw materials, selling and marketing, engineering costs. Volume leverage and price flow-through expected to continue Q: Tariff exposure and passing on costs A: For OSB, traded commodity, price resets; for siding, potential supply chain optimizations but no specific tariff pass-on assumptions yet Q: Siding capacity expansion and trough margins A: Starting Holton line two, parallel expansion projects, with focus on efficiency and potential step change in margin with new mill designs

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Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$1.03$0.79+30.4%$0.71
Revenue$681.0M$726.1M-6.2%$658.0M

Transcript

February 19, 2025

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