ELI LILLY & Co Q4 FY2024 earnings call

Key Points

• 2024 was productive with revenue growing 32% vs 2023, exceeding initial guidance by $4B. Q4 revenue grew 45% led by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• Pipeline advancements: Positive Phase III results for various trials, acquisitions like Morphic Therapeutics, collaborations with OpenAI and others. Regulatory approvals for Kisunla, Ebglyss, and Zepbound in OSA.
• Manufacturing: Invested over $23B since 2020 in expanding facilities. Strengthened supply position, no wholesaler back orders at year-end.

Q4 Specifics

• Revenue grew 45%, new products up over $3.1B, strong oncology, immunology, neuroscience performance. Pipeline milestones achieved including Zepbound and Omvoh new indications, imlunestrant and tirzepatide submissions.

In Q4 2024, Eli Lilly's revenue grew 45%, with new products contributing over $3.1 billion, led by strong uptake of Mounjaro and Zepbound. The non-incretin business grew 20% in the quarter compared to Q4 2023, excluding one-time business development benefits. New products more than doubled in Q4 to $5.6 billion, with global Mounjaro sales at $3.5 billion and U.S. Zepbound sales at $1.9 billion. Jaypirca worldwide revenue was $114 million, and Omvoh worldwide revenue was $57 million. The U.S. incretin analog market grew 45% compared to Q4 2023, with Lilly increasing its market share by 3 percentage points.

2025 Guidance

• Expected revenue $58-61B, midpoint 32% growth vs 2024. Anticipate continued U.S. incretin class growth, launch Mounjaro in new international markets.
• Margin: Gross margin less OpEx divided by revenue expected 41.5%-43.5%, midpoint 340 basis points expansion vs 2024.
• R&D: Plan to accelerate investment in early and late-stage activities, initiate new Phase III programs. EPS non-GAAP expected $22.50-$24, tax rate ~16%.

• Supply chain challenges and potential disruptions. Compounding litigation issues with ongoing court cases. Market turbulence related to unprecedented size of obesity market and manufacturing capacity matching demand.

Q: Retatrutide Phase III readout?

A: Daniel Skovronsky said the osteoarthritis trial is 68-week, shorter than other obesity trials, and OA population not a point estimate for broader obesity population.

Q: Bima data and muscle preservation?

A: Daniel Skovronsky said bimagrumab data expected this year, looking for incremental weight loss or functional benefits from lean mass preservation with tirzepatide combination.

Q: Ebglyss PBM coverage in March?

A: Daniel Skovronsky said 2 of 3 large PBMs will cover Ebglyss, expecting positive impact on script trends.