Kaspi.kz JSC Q3 FY2026 earnings call

• AI Integration (Kasper): Launched personal AI assistant 'Kasper' in July, achieving strong adoption with 1.4 million users. It demonstrates a 1.5x higher conversion rate and 2x higher average GNV per order compared to traditional search. A next-generation model featuring visual search and enhanced personalization is planned for later this year.
• Neighborhood Grocery Expansion: Successfully piloted a partnership model in Almaty with 42 stores, achieving a 15% EBITDA margin. The model leverages existing dark store infrastructure for overnight stocking, converting local independent stores into standardized formats. Plans include reaching 300 stores by year-end across nine cities, with a mid-term aspiration of 3,000 stores to capture a ~$9 billion market opportunity.
• FinTech Product Rollout: 'HepsiCredit' now supports 8% of smartphone GMV in Turkey, showing strong consumer adoption and manageable risk profiles. The company aims to introduce more innovative fintech products for consumers and merchants in 2027.
• Operational Efficiency: The neighborhood grocery strategy utilizes existing dark stores for logistics, multiplying efficiency by delivering to partner stores during off-peak hours. The payback period on EBITDA is estimated at 18 months.

The report provides consolidated financial metrics rather than distinct product segment breakdowns. Consolidated revenue grew by approximately 18% in constant currency, with EBITDA broadly flat (up 1%). Key segment highlights include: E-commerce GMV growth of 17% in constant currency; TPV growth of 14%; and Marketplace revenue outperforming at 20% year-on-year with an EBITDA margin improvement to 26%. Payments saw 14% constant currency TPV growth but flat EBITDA due to lower interest rates impacting liquidity revenue. FinTech loan portfolio grew ~14%, with revenue up 19% driven by longer loan durations, though EBITDA remained flat due to high funding costs.

• Full-Year GMV Guidance Revised Downward: Constant currency GMV growth expectation lowered to ~12% from the previous 20% forecast. This revision is attributed entirely to lower ticket sizes resulting from significant Kazakh Tenge appreciation against imported goods.
• TPV Growth Maintenance: Full-year TPV growth guidance remains unchanged at approximately 15%, consistent with the 14% growth observed in the first nine months.
• Margin Outlook: Management anticipates improved earnings trends in 2027 due to falling interest rates reducing funding costs and significantly lower investment expenditures in Turkey.

• Currency Volatility: Sharp depreciation of the Turkish Lira and unusual strength of the Kazakh Tenge have impacted reported revenues and growth rates. The strong Tenge has led to lower item prices for imported goods, affecting ticket sizes.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Payments and Liquidity revenue are sensitive to interest rate changes. High deposit rates previously weighed on profitability, although management notes that repricing actions taken in August and October will begin to benefit margins in Q4 and improve further in 2027.
• Execution Risk in New Ventures: While the neighborhood grocery pilot was successful, scaling to 300 stores requires precise execution of the partnership model, standardization, and logistics integration without disrupting core operations.

Q: Analyst asked about fintech funding cost mitigation timeline given rapid rate cuts, take rate divergence between e-commerce and total marketplace, and potential merchant financing impact from the new grocery venture.

A: Management clarified that total marketplace take rate increased 90 bps YoY, dismissing minor quarterly fluctuations as seasonal. Regarding funding costs, only one-third of the savings book (repriced by 200 bps) affects near-term results, with full benefits arriving in 2027. On the grocery venture, Mikheil emphasized it enables fast delivery and broader value-added services beyond just fintech, leveraging existing dark store efficiency.

Q: Analyst questioned Turkey investment moderation satisfaction, clarified convenience store economics (who bears CapEx/OpEx), and asked if excess cash could fund dividends or buybacks.

A: David Ferguson stated that while earnings growth and lower investments support shareholder returns, any decision on dividends or buybacks is reserved for next year's review, noting the current 1,000 Tenge dividend is already approved. Mikheil clarified the partnership model: partners handle daily operations and receive 7% of turnover, while Kaspi provides equipment, brand, and tech. The 15% EBITDA margin includes all expenses including partner fees, highlighting high operational efficiency through dual-use of dark stores.