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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Q3 FY2024 earnings call

November 8, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2024-09

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Summary

Generated 2024-11-08

Management highlights

• Controlled Capital program: Production exceeded targets by ~15%, CapEx under budget by ~15%, inventory of over 40 net locations in Permian. Allocation to Controlled Capital to increase from ~50% in 2024 to ~60% in 2025. • Deal activity: Closed over a dozen transactions, added nearly 16 net locations at $31M, projected $125M in future dev capital. • Production: Q3 gas production increased vs expectation, Q4 gas decline expected up to 10% but oil to modestly increase. 16.2 net wells in process as of Sept 30, expect 2-4 net wells in Q4, significant Q1 increase. • Financials: Adjusted EBITDAX $75.4M, up 10% QoQ. LOE costs improved, G&A expenses improved. Development capital spending in line with expectations. Paid quarterly dividend, board declared another.

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Segment performance

The Controlled Capital program is thriving with production exceeding targets by ~15% and CapEx under budget by ~15%. There's an inventory of over 40 net locations in the Permian for development over 2-3 years. In 2024, Controlled Capital accounts for nearly 50% of CapEx, and expected to be ~60% in 2025. For the quarter, average daily production was 25,200 Boe per day, up 9% QoQ and 5% YoY. Oil volumes increased 16% QoQ, with oil percentage at 50% in Q3. Closed over a dozen transactions adding nearly 16 net locations at $31M. Production in Q3 saw gas increase vs expected decline, with Q4 gas production expected to decline up to 10% but oil production modestly increase. Expect 2-4 net wells in Q4, significant increase in Q1, and double-digit production growth in 2025 with oil weighting in low 50% range.

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Guidance

• Controlled Capital to account for nearly 50% of 2024 CapEx, ~60% in 2025. • 2025 guidance to be provided in Q4 call, expected strong year-over-year growth due to 2024 capital for activity turning to sales in 2025. • Q4 gas production expected to decline up to 10%, oil production modestly increase. Q1 production to see significant increase.

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Risks

• Market risks affecting drilling economics, especially for gas wells. • Operational risks related to timing of development and production from new wells. • Risks associated with forward-looking statements and potential differences from actual results.

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Q&A highlights

Q: Noah Hungness on LOE costs and Appalachia leasehold A: Tyler on LOE costs coming in under guidance, Luke on Utica condensate area partnership Q: Michael Scialla on Control CapEx partnerships A: Luke on Midland Basin partnership, inventory, rig timing Q: Phillips Johnston on production trajectory, PDP decline rate A: Luke on Q4/Q1 production, PDP decline rate around 40% Q: Jeff Robertson on Controlled Capital in other basins A: Luke on looking at other basins, challenges with gas weighted areas, potential in Bakken and Eagle Ford

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Key numbers

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Transcript

November 8, 2024

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