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Constellium SE

Constellium SE Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 20, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

EPS · actual vs est

$-0.34 / $0.13Miss -370.1%

Revenue · actual vs est

$1.98B / $1.91BBeat +3.7%
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Summary

Generated 2025-02-20

Management highlights

  • Safety: Recordable case rate was 2.0 per million hours worked, aiming to reduce to 1.5. - Fourth Quarter Performance: Shipments 328,000 tons (-2% y-o-y), revenue $1.7 billion (-1% y-o-y), net loss $47 million vs net income $5 million y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA $125 million (excluding flood and metal price lag: $113 million). - Full Year 2024: Shipments 1.4 million tons (-4% y-o-y), revenue $7.3 billion (-6% y-o-y), net income $60 million vs $157 million y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA $623 million (excluding flood and metal price lag: $601 million). - Valais Flood: Production ramp-up on track, expecting cost impact in 2025 and insurance proceeds in 2025. - New Facility: New recycling and casting center in Neuf-Brisach started up ahead of schedule and below budget. - Share Buybacks: Returned $79 million to shareholders in 2024. - Section 232 Tariffs: Mixed impact, monitoring opportunities.
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Segment performance

A&T Segment: Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, a 33% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 19% decrease from 2023. P&K Segment: Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, a 34% decrease y-o-y. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $242 million, a 21% decrease from 2023. AS&I Segment: Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $4 million, an 83% decrease y-o-y. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $74 million, a 43% decrease from 2023.

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Guidance

  • 2025 target: Adjusted EBITDA excluding non-cash metal price lag in the range of $600 to $630 million and free cash flow in excess of $120 million. - Long-term target: By 2028, expect adjusted EBITDA excluding non-cash metal price lag of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million. Drivers include Valais recovery, Muscle Shoals improvements, recycling center ramp-up, and cost savings.
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Risks

  • Scrap spreads tightening in North America impacting the P&K segment. - Market-driven headwinds including demand weakness in end markets. - Extreme weather events (cold, flood) affecting operations. - Uncertainty around Section 232 tariffs and their impact.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Can you give more detail on key tax and input for the 2025 EBITDA guidance and the long-term bridge?

A: Key inputs include scrap spreads, aerospace OEM ramp-up challenges, foreign exchange, and Valais costs. Long-term bridge incorporates Valais recovery, Muscle Shoals improvements, and investment benefits.

Q: How is the 2025 guide weighted by quarter?

A: First quarter is seasonally weaker with remaining flood impact, but middle of the year benefits from cost initiatives and contract repricing.

Q: What is the impact of scrap dynamics on 2025 and the long-term bridge?

A: Scrap spreads in North America are a headwind in 2025, with assumptions of sustained tightness, and mixed impacts in Europe.

Q: How does Constellium plan to address EU auto weakness and aluminum substitution concerns?

A: Repurpose capacity to other products like can sheet, and aluminum remains competitive due to stability and hedging capabilities despite some substitution talk.

View in transcript ↓

Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$-0.34$0.13-370.1%$0.08
Revenue$1.98B$1.91B+3.7%$1.60B

Transcript

February 20, 2025

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