CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Q1 FY2025 earnings call

• Tony Will highlighted Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $644 million, strong global nitrogen industry conditions, Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, and $2 billion share repurchase authorization. - Chris Bohn noted production network operated well with over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia produced in Q1 at 100% utilization, nearing completion of Donaldsonville Complex carbon capture project, and Blue Point as a growth opportunity. - Bert Frost discussed tight nitrogen supply demand balance, strong global demand, low channel inventories, and constructive global nitrogen conditions into H2 2025. - Greg Cameron provided financial details, including net earnings, EBITDA, cash flows, and share repurchase activity.

For the first quarter of 2025, CF Industries reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $312 million or $1.85 per diluted share. Net earnings increased approximately 60% compared to Q1 2024, and earnings per share were ~80% higher. EBITDA was $617 million, adjusted EBITDA was $644 million. Trailing 12-month net cash from operations was $2.4 billion, free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion. Free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate for the period was 63%. $530 million was returned to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $434 million for share repurchases.

• Board authorized an additional $2 billion share repurchase program starting after existing authorization expires, running through end of 2029. - Full year 2025 capital funded expenditures expected to be ~$650 million, including ~$500 million for existing network and ~$150 million for Blue Point. - Anticipate completing current share repurchase program by December 2025, then begin new $2 billion program.

• Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Factors affecting performance in SEC filings. Geopolitical events, capital availability, and long-term feedstock costs can limit new projects. Air Products' project with high operating costs not of interest to CF Industries.

Q: Stephen Byrne asked about offtake for Blue Point's blue ammonia.

A: Tony Will said agreements in place for blue ammonia, not fully booked yet, with demand expected to grow.

Q: Richard Garchitorena inquired about JERA's option to reduce stakes in Blue Point.

A: Tony Will stated JERA likely wants to maintain 35% ownership, comfortable with incremental ownership and offtake proportionate to equity.

Q: Joel Jackson asked about market outlook.

A: Bert Frost mentioned positive order book, favorable market, and fill programs later due to low inventories.

Q: Chris Parkinson asked about nitrogen cost curve and Blue Point returns.

A: Tony Will discussed US as low cost region, Blue Point tons earmarked for UK and other markets.

Q: Lucas Beaumont asked about tariffs.

A: Bert Frost talked about tariff impacts on trade flows, North American market position.

Q: Andrew Wong asked about clean ammonia pricing.

A: Bert Frost discussed value proposition, carbon premium, and contracts.

Q: Benjamin Theurer asked about Chinese urea export window.

A: Tony Will said world needs urea tons, consistent with expectations.

Q: Jordan Lee asked about urea and ammonia price divergence.

A: Bert Frost and Tony Will discussed international market divergence, agricultural application price differences.

Q: Edlain Rodriguez asked about ag fundamentals.

A: Bert Frost discussed differentiated market conditions.

Q: Jeff Zekauskas asked about CapEx and carbon storage.

A: Tony Will and Chris Bohn talked about CapEx figures, carbon storage with ExxonMobil.

Q: Vincent Andrews asked about Blue Point financial reporting.

A: Greg Cameron said will consolidate Blue Point into financials, report in ammonia segment.

Q: Joel Jackson asked about CapEx clarification.

A: Chris Bohn explained CapEx breakdown.