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Cameco Corp.

Cameco Corp. Q4 FY2023 earnings call

February 8, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2023-12

EPS · actual vs est

$0.15 / $0.21Miss -28.6%

Revenue · actual vs est

$635.3M / $611.1MBeat +4.0%
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Summary

Generated 2024-02-08

Management highlights

  • Market Environment: Geopolitical tensions are driving governments to reevaluate energy security and climate concerns, boosting nuclear energy support. There's a growing consensus that net zero requires nuclear, with 28 countries aiming to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.
  • 2023 Performance: Strong financial metrics due to higher sales volumes and prices. Disciplined strategy positioned for long-term demand.
  • Contract Portfolio: Ended 2023 with 205 million pounds of uranium commitments to 37 customers, representing 20% of the reserve base.
  • Asset Developments: Updated Cigar Lake technical report extends mine life to 2036. Starting work to debottleneck MacArthur River mine and Key Lake Mill.
  • Fuel Services: Port Hope conversion facility has 75,000 tonnes contracted. 49% stake in GLE and Westinghouse, with Westinghouse expected to contribute adjusted EBITDA $445M-$510M in 2024.
  • ESG: Integrated ESG into business, with tailored decarbonization pathways and climate impact analysis on operations.
View in transcript ↓

Segment performance

In 2023, Cameco's uranium and fuel services segments saw significant financial improvements. Higher sales volumes and realized prices drove improved net earnings, adjusted net earnings, cash from operations, and adjusted EBITDA, which all more than doubled compared to the previous year. The uranium segment benefited from strong market conditions, while the fuel services segment had increased UF6 production at Port Hope with 75,000 tonnes contracted and a 49% stake in global laser enrichment and Westinghouse. Revenue contribution details weren't explicitly broken down by segment percentage in the provided transcript, but the focus was on the overall financial growth in these segments.

View in transcript ↓

Guidance

  • Uranium segment expects strong financial performance to continue in 2024, transitioning to Tier 1 cost structure.
  • MacArthur Key evaluation work starting, Cigar Lake mine life extended to 2036.
  • Westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA expected to grow 6%-10% CAGR over five years, with 2024 contribution between $445M-$510M.
View in transcript ↓

Risks

  • Geopolitical tensions impacting supply chain, mining activity, and transportation.
  • Supply chain challenges, mine depletion, finite secondary supplies, and underinvestment leading to tight market.
  • Uncertainty in sourcing uranium for longer term beyond current production volumes.
View in transcript ↓

Q&A highlights

Q: Ralph Profiti asked about MacArthur River evaluation, Tier 2 projects, and uranium sensitivity table leverage.

A: Tim Gitzel and Grant Isaac responded that they're starting MacArthur Key evaluation, Tier 2 projects are a future consideration, and leverage is due to market-related contracts.

Q: Andrew Wong inquired about production returning to nameplate in 2024 and longer-term projects for Cigar and MacArthur.

A: Tim Gitzel stated confidence in 2024 production, with work starting on MacArthur Key debottlenecking and Cigar Lake mine life extended.

Q: Orest Wowkodaw asked about capital for MacArthur extension, Cigar Lake, and pricing of committed purchases.

A: Brian Reilly and Grant Isaac responded that capital for Cigar Lake extension is in the hundreds of millions, and committed purchases have flexible pricing based on market conditions.

Q: Greg Barnes asked about Cigar Lake extension decline, Westinghouse guidance, and Springfields conversion plant.

A: Tim Gitzel and Grant Isaac discussed Cigar Lake extension plans, Westinghouse growth expectations, and ongoing considerations for Springfields conversion plant.

Q: Lawson Winder asked about Westinghouse G&A, conversion market prices, and Alexander Pearce inquired about conversion market and purchase agreements.

A: Heidi Shockey and Grant Isaac addressed Westinghouse G&A stability, conversion market risks, and purchase agreement flexibility.

Q: Brian MacArthur asked about Inkai purchases, CRA reassessments.

A: Grant Isaac and Sean Quinn responded on Inkai purchase confidence and CRA reassessment status

View in transcript ↓

Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$0.15$0.21-28.6%
Revenue$635.3M$611.1M+4.0%

Transcript

February 8, 2024

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