BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO Q4 FY2024 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights

• 2024 Achievements: 2024 was a year of good execution with growth portfolio delivering double-digit revenue growth; reallocated spend to high-potential growth opportunities, achieving most of $1.5B savings; improved R&D productivity, accelerating several late-stage pipeline programs.
• 2025 Plans: Initiate 7 Phase III studies for Cobenfy across 3 indications (Alzheimer's disease agitation, Alzheimer's disease cognition, bipolar 1 disorder) in 2025; multiple registrational catalysts over next 24 months, including Cobenfy-ARIE study in adjunctive schizophrenia; focus on operational excellence, identifying $2B in additional savings with $1B realized in 2025.
• R&D Progress: Accelerated programs like CEMZIOS completed enrollment 6 months early for ODYSSEY non-obstructive HCM study; Coben ADEPT 2 study in Alzheimer's disease psychosis moved to top line readout in H2 2025; ibertamideexcaliber trial in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma completed enrollment with MRD as co-primary endpoint for data readout in 2025.

Segment Performance

• Oncology: Opdivo had solid Q4 growth, with focus on converting and educating the U.S. market on Opdivo Quvantic in 2025, expecting low single-digit growth for Opdivo and Quvantic combined. Optolag saw double-digit growth in Q4, driven by U.S. demand and uptake in newly launched markets.
• Cardiovascular: Eliquis had over $3B in Q4 sales, U.S. sales grew 19% but Q1 growth tempered due to Medicare Part D; KEMZIOS sales more than doubled in Q4, with a PDUFA date in April for easing REMS echo monitoring requirements in the U.S.
• Hematology: Reblozyl saw over 70% growth, with strong uptake in MDS-associated anemia patients; BrionZ's sales more than doubled in Q4 due to best-in-class profile and strong demand.
• Immunology: STC global sales grew over 30%, but U.S. sales faced gross-to-net impacts from higher rebates; CERTIKTU had gross-to-net pressures affecting reported sales in H1 2025.
• Neuroscience: Cobenfy had ~$10M in Q4 sales, with strong prescription uptake and favorable feedback on efficacy and safety profile.

Guidance

• Revenue: Estimates revenue in 2025 to be approximately $45.5B, reflecting near-term impact of generics across multiple products and strength of growth portfolio.
• Earnings: Non-GAAP EPS expected in range of $6.55 to $6.85 in 2025, driven by expanded savings program.
• Portfolio Impact: Legacy portfolio expected to decline 18%-20% due to generics and foreign exchange headwinds of ~$500M; growth portfolio to remain strong with continued performance of key brands.

Risks

• Generics Impact: Legacy products like Revlimid, ABRAXANE, etc., face increased generic volumes, impacting sales.
• Trial Uncertainty: Uncertainty around trial outcomes, e.g., Cobenfy adjunct schizophrenia trial, where historical data shows some companies have failed similar trials.
• Medicare Part D Impact: Eliquis Q1 U.S. sales growth tempered due to implementation of 10% manufacturer responsibility in initial coverage phase of Medicare Part D redesign.

Question and Answer

Q: On Cobenfy, how is the ramp and feedback?

A: Adam Lenkowsky mentioned Cobenfy had a strong launch with ~1,000 TRxs per week, over 90% Medicaid access and over 80% Medicare access, and positive feedback on efficacy and safety profile with continued strong uptake expected in 2025.

Q: On the cost program, future cost opportunities?

A: Christopher Boerner stated the focus is on investing in growth while rightsizing costs, with the expanded $2B savings program providing financial flexibility for strategic investments in growth areas like the pipeline.