AEMETIS, INC Q4 FY2024 earnings call

Government Policies - California LCFS credits: Amendments approved but implementation delayed; expected price increase to $200 per ton. - Federal renewable fuel standard: D3 RINs value $28-$40 per MMBtu. - Federal 45C production tax credit: Started Jan 2025, awaiting further guidance. - Federal 48 investment tax credits: Sold $17 million in cash proceeds so far in 2025. - 15% ethanol blend approvals: OCPA approved E15 for 8 Midwestern states, CA governor pushing for approval. ### India Biofuels - Completed $112M deliveries in one-year period ending Sept 2024, but OMCs delayed deliveries; new tender expected in Q2 2025. - New MD and CFO joined, India HQ moved. IPO planned for late 2025/early 2026. ### North American Businesses - Aemetis Biogas: Expected 550,000 MMBtu/year production in 2025, expanding to 26 dairies by end 2025. - Aemetis Ethanol: MVR system installation at Keys plant to reduce gas use by 80%, expect $35M annual cash flow increase. - Carbon Capture: California state approval to drill characterization well, plan to sequester 1.4M tons CO2/year. - SAF and Renewable Diesel: Air permits received, discussing innovative pricing with airlines, awaiting 45Z tax credit clarification.

Revenues for Aemetis were $268 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $187 million in 2023. California ethanol increased by $57.7 million, India biodiesel by $15.7 million, and California renewable natural gas by $7.6 million. Cost of goods sold increased from $184.7 million in 2023 to $268.2 million in 2024. Gross loss for 2024 was $580,000 compared to a gross profit of $2 million in 2023. The dairy, renewable natural gas segment accounted for $5.4 million of gross profit principally from the sale of environmental attributes. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $39.8 million in 2024 vs $39.4 million in 2023. Operating loss was $40.4 million in 2024 vs $X in 2023. Net loss was $87.5 million in 2024 vs $46.4 million in 2023.

Forward-Looking - LCFS prices expected to increase significantly, eventually approaching $200 per ton. - E15 approval to expand ethanol market by up to 50%. - USDA to provide $75M in guaranteed financing for biogas digester construction. - MVR system at Keys plant expected to start operating in 2026, reducing gas use and increasing cash flow. - SAF plant in Riverbank, CA, to be accelerated with innovative pricing and regulatory support. - CO2 sequestration project expected to benefit from faster EPA approval and federal tax credit support.

Risks - Delayed implementation of LCFS amendments causing uncertainty in credit prices. - OMC delays in India biodiesel deliveries impacting revenue. - Uncertainty in federal 45Z tax credit clarification affecting SAF/RD project financing. - Potential delays in EPA approval for CO2 sequestration wells.

Q: Jordan Levy asked about refinancing confidence given government spending pauses.

A: Eric McAfee said high confidence in REAP, expecting approvals this month for next $25M loan.

Q: Jordan Levy asked about Riverbank CapEx and 45Z clarification.

A: Eric McAfee said GAAP vs project financing capitalization differ, 45Z clarification needed, likely take most of 2025.

Q: Sameer Joshi asked about LCFS OAL delay.

A: Eric McAfee said LCFS is complex, delay could take months, hope governor steps in.

Q: Sameer Joshi asked about India biodiesel restart and inventory.

A: Eric McAfee said new tender issued, sitting on inventory, no impact on production.

Q: Sameer Joshi asked about India IPO timing.

A: Eric McAfee said expect process completed in 2025, subject to market conditions.

Q: Derrick Whitfield asked about 2025 spending plans.

A: Eric McAfee said accelerating biogas spending with USDA and vendor support.

Q: Derrick Whitfield asked about E15 impact on ethanol margins.

A: Eric McAfee said slow megatrend, acceleration in 2026, margin recapture expected.

Q: Matthew Blair asked about Q4 EBITDA and Q1 ethanol fundamentals.

A: Eric McAfee said Q4 oversupply, high corn prices, Q1 better, operational changes.

Q: Matthew Blair asked about D3 RVO.

A: Eric McAfee said EPA extended compliance, uncertain RVO future, market signal to not invest.

Q: Dave Storms asked about CARB approved digesters MMBtu.

A: Eric McAfee said approx 350,000 per year per dairy.

Q: Dave Storms asked about investment tax credit market.

A: Eric McAfee said market settled on bid-ask spread with ~15% discount.

Q: Ed Woo asked about India IPO proceeds use.

A: Eric McAfee said will be diligent in disclosing, depends on IPO market.

Q: Ed Woo asked about India self-sufficiency.

A: Eric McAfee said still self-sufficient, well-positioned for OMC contracts.