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AEP

AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC

AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC Q3 FY2024 earnings call

November 6, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2024-09

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Summary

Generated 2024-11-06

Management highlights

  • Financial results: Third quarter 2024 operating earnings $1.85 per share. Narrowed 2024 full year operating earnings guidance to $5.58 to $5.68. Introduced 2025 operating earnings guidance $5.75 to $5.95. - Strategy pillars: Growth and financial strength with 20 gigawatts of load additions through 2029; best-in-class customer service leveraging technology; regulatory integrity working with regulators and communities. - Regulatory updates: Positive developments in various states like Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia; SWEPCO updated formula rates; I&M issued RFPs for generation resources. - Organizational changes: Streamlined structure with operating company Presidents and Chief Nuclear Officer reporting directly to CEO, power plants and site managers to operating company Presidents. - Capital plan: $54 billion capital plan from 2025-2029, up over 25% from prior plan, with focus on transmission and generation infrastructure.
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Segment performance

Operating earnings for the third quarter totaled $1.85 per share, or $985 million. Vertically integrated utilities had operating earnings of $1.08 per share, up $0.08. The transmission and distribution utility segment earned $0.46 per share, up $0.07. The AEP transmission Holdco segment contributed $0.40 per share, up a penny. Generation and marketing produced $0.19 per share, up a penny. Corporate and Other was down $0.09. Year-to-date, operating earnings are up $0.36 per share, increasing from $4.02 per share in 2023 to $4.38 per share in 2024.

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Guidance

  • 2024 full year operating earnings guidance narrowed to $5.58 to $5.68, maintaining midpoint $5.63. - 2025 operating earnings guidance range $5.75 to $5.95. - Long-term earnings growth rate 6% to 8% off 2025 base year with $5.85 midpoint. - $54 billion capital plan from 2025-2029, seeking $10 billion in incremental transmission and generation infrastructure investment.
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Risks

  • Regulatory uncertainties in various states and with FERC. - Potential impacts of asset sales not being disclosed until executed. - FERC investigation with a recorded loss contingency of $19 million in the third quarter.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Shar Pourezza asked about additional opportunities, asset sales timing.

A: Bill Fehrman mentioned voluntary separation plan, transformation expert to reduce costs, more wood to chop; asset sales not commented on until executed.

Q: Steven Fleischman asked about earned returns and balance sheet.

A: Bill Fehrman said focused on improving regulatory relations and customer service to improve earned returns; Charles Zebula clarified Moody's view on credit is stable.

Q: Jeremy Tonet asked about data centers in Ohio and transmission JV.

A: Bill Fehrman discussed Ohio data center tariff, settlement process; mentioned transmission JV with FirstEnergy and Dominion.

Q: David Arcaro asked about G&M segment and new generation CapEx.

A: Bill Fehrman said G&M segment has contribution in 2026 and beyond; new generation CapEx spread as projects come in.

Q: Julien Dumoulin-Smith asked about utility ROE and 765 transmission.

A: Bill Fehrman said focused on improving ROE through customer service and regulatory relations; discussed 765 transmission opportunities in various regions.

Q: Nicholas Campanella asked about nuclear in strategy and 6%-8% growth.

A: Bill Fehrman discussed nuclear project risk mitigation; Charles Zebula said 6%-8% growth not linear.

Q: Carly Davenport asked about transmission opportunities and dividend growth.

A: Charles Zebula said transmission opportunities are upside to plan; dividend growth to be decoupled.

Q: Andrew Wiesel asked about dividend and equity timing.

A: Charles Zebula said dividend drift down in range; equity support needed in 2025, options on table.

Q: William Appicelli asked about tax credits and residential sales.

A: Charles Zebula said tax credits transferable; residential sales trend with reduced usage.

Q: Anthony Crowdell asked about ROE and load growth connection.

A: Charles Zebula said trailing 12 months ROE at 9.0%; Bill Fehrman said load growth with signed contracts, working on connection.

Q: Ryan Levine asked about load forecast confidence and federal policy.

A: Bill Fehrman said confident with signed contracts; will evaluate federal policy changes.

View in transcript ↓

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Transcript

November 6, 2024

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