[IDA] Idacorp Thesis 2026: Idaho Power Drives Hydro Data Center Load Growth Capital Return

Key Takeaways

• IDA FY2025 revenue ~$1.85-1.95B (+5-10% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$5.85-6.10 reflecting continued post-2024 $1.85-1.95B aggregate Idaho Power regulated electric utility revenue ($1.85-1.95B aggregate Idaho Power + ~$5-10M aggregate IDACORP Financial Services) under continued President + CEO Lisa Grow since June 2020 (~5-year tenure as Idacorp CEO; selected post-June 2020 succeeded Darrel Anderson retirement).
• Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition Pipeline: ~$1.85-1.95B aggregate Idaho Power revenue (~99%+ revenue mix); selected primary Idaho Power vertically integrated regulated electric utility (Idaho ~96%+ aggregate + Oregon ~4%); selected various aggregate ~$3.8-4.0B aggregate net plant in service + selected various aggregate ~3.6-3.9GW aggregate generation capacity + selected various aggregate ~30-35% aggregate Hydro + ~35-40% aggregate Natural Gas + ~15-20% aggregate Coal (Jim Bridger + Valmy) + 10-15% aggregate Renewable (Wind + Solar + Battery) generation mix + selected various aggregate post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition pipeline ($0.5-0.8B aggregate cumulative capex).
• Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex Pipeline ($5B+ FY2024-2029): selected continued post-2023 selected various aggregate Idaho data center load growth (selected primary Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor manufacturing capital intensity exposure + selected various aggregate ~6-8% aggregate aggregate annual sales growth target) + selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate FY2024-2029 cumulative capital expenditure plan (selected primary post-2024 ~$0.8-1.1B aggregate annual Capex deployment + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-0.8B aggregate Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate aggregate transmission expansion + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate Renewable (Wind + Solar + Battery) additions).
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$3.40 aggregate annual dividend (~57%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~13+ year aggregate dividend increase track record); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$185-190M FY2025; net leverage ~5.0-5.5x Net Debt/EBITDA; investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (Idaho Power) + Baa1/A- credit rating (IDACORP); ~53-55M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~10-12 years.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition pipeline (~$3.8-4.0B aggregate net plant + 3.6-3.9GW capacity) + Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex pipeline ($5B+ FY2024-2029 cumulative capex + ~6-8% aggregate annual sales growth) + selected ~13+ year aggregate dividend increase track record + selected post-2023 Idaho data center hyperscale + semiconductor manufacturing load growth.

Company Background

IDACORP, Inc. (NYSE: IDA) is the holding company for Idaho Power Company, one of the largest US specialty Western US vertically integrated regulated electric utilities, founded 1916 as Idaho Power Company in Boise Idaho (109-year heritage as Idaho Power; selected primary 1998 IDACORP holding company formation). Selected post-1998 IDACORP holding company formation + NYSE listing; selected post-2020 Lisa Grow CEO appointment (succeeded Darrel Anderson retirement; selected primary post-2020 Idaho data center load growth architect); selected post-2023 Idaho data center hyperscale + semiconductor manufacturing customer expansion (selected primary post-2023 Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor + AI/HPC data center capital intensity exposure); selected post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition pipeline ($0.5-0.8B aggregate cumulative capex); selected post-2024 ~$5B+ aggregate FY2024-2029 cumulative capital expenditure plan; HQ Boise Idaho; ~2,000-2,200 employees globally; selected ~Idaho ~96%+ aggregate + Oregon ~4% aggregate service territory footprint.

IDA operates 1 primary business: Idaho Power vertically integrated regulated electric utility ~99%+ revenue. Idaho Power Electric Utility revenue 99%+ revenue mix ($1.85-1.95B; selected primary Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) + Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) regulated). IDACORP Financial Services revenue 1% revenue mix ($5-10M; selected primary Affordable Housing tax credit investments). Geographic mix: Idaho ~96%+ + Oregon ~4%.

Capital position: ~$3.40 aggregate annual dividend (~57%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield; ~13+ year dividend increase track record); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$185-190M FY2025; net leverage ~5.0-5.5x Net Debt/EBITDA; investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (Idaho Power) + Baa1/A- credit rating (IDACORP); ~53-55M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~10-12 years.

Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition Pipeline

The Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition pipeline is IDA's foundation thesis: ~$1.85-1.95B aggregate Idaho Power revenue (~99%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Idaho Power vertically integrated regulated electric utility (Idaho ~96%+ aggregate + Oregon ~4%) + selected various aggregate ~$3.8-4.0B aggregate net plant in service + selected various aggregate ~3.6-3.9GW aggregate generation capacity + selected various aggregate ~30-35% aggregate Hydro + ~35-40% aggregate Natural Gas + ~15-20% aggregate Coal (Jim Bridger + Valmy) + 10-15% aggregate Renewable (Wind + Solar + Battery) generation mix + selected various aggregate post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition pipeline ($0.5-0.8B aggregate cumulative capex). Selected primary IDA platform: Idaho Power vertically integrated regulated electric utility + Hydro + Natural Gas generation mix advantage.

FY2025 Idaho Power dynamics ($1.85-1.95B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+5-10% aggregate Idaho Power revenue growth (cyclical Idaho data center load growth + selected various aggregate Idaho economic + population growth + selected various aggregate ~$3.8-4.0B aggregate net plant in service + selected various aggregate Hydro + Natural Gas generation mix advantage) + ~$1.85-1.95B aggregate Idaho Power revenue + selected various aggregate ~3.6-3.9GW aggregate generation capacity + selected various aggregate ~30-35% aggregate Hydro generation mix. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition pipeline + ~$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Lisa Grow leadership (~5-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.95-2.10B aggregate Idaho Power revenue + selected various ~+5-8% aggregate Idaho Power growth + selected various aggregate ~3.7-4.0GW aggregate generation capacity + selected various aggregate post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition pipeline + selected various aggregate Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) + Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) regulated rate case progression. Risks: PacifiCorp (Berkshire Hathaway-owned) + Avista (AVA) + Portland General Electric (POR) + NorthWestern Energy (NWE) + selected various aggregate Western US regulated electric utility competitive displacement + Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) + Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) regulated rate cycle considerations + selected various aggregate post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition execution considerations + Hydro generation cycle considerations (snowpack + Pacific Northwest weather).

Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex Pipeline ($5B+ FY2024-2029)

The Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex pipeline is IDA's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2023 selected various aggregate Idaho data center load growth (selected primary Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor manufacturing capital intensity exposure + selected various aggregate ~6-8% aggregate aggregate annual sales growth target) + selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate FY2024-2029 cumulative capital expenditure plan (selected primary post-2024 ~$0.8-1.1B aggregate annual Capex deployment + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-0.8B aggregate Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate aggregate transmission expansion + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate Renewable (Wind + Solar + Battery) additions).

FY2025 Idaho Data Center + Load Growth dynamics: selected primary post-2023 Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor manufacturing data center load growth + selected various aggregate ~6-8% aggregate annual sales growth + selected primary post-2024 ~$0.8-1.1B aggregate annual Capex deployment + selected various aggregate Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition pipeline + selected various aggregate transmission expansion + Renewable additions. Selected post-2024 $0.50-0.85 incremental annual EPS contribution as Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex pipeline drives incremental rate base growth + earned ROE expansion ($1B+ aggregate annual rate base growth at ~9-10% allowed ROE).

FY2026 catalyst: continued Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex pipeline + ~$0.50-0.85 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.9-1.2B aggregate annual Capex deployment + selected various aggregate ~6-8% aggregate annual sales growth + selected various aggregate Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor + AI/HPC data center load expansion + selected various aggregate transmission expansion + Renewable additions + selected various aggregate post-2024 Jim Bridger coal retirement + Valmy coal-to-gas transition. Risks: PacifiCorp + Avista + Portland General Electric + NorthWestern Energy + selected various aggregate Western US regulated electric utility competitive displacement + Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor data center customer concentration considerations + post-2023 Idaho data center load growth pacing considerations + Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) + Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) regulated rate cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$3.40 aggregate annual dividend (~57%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield; ~13+ year aggregate dividend increase track record) + minimal opportunistic buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$185-190M FY2025 + net leverage ~5.0-5.5x Net Debt/EBITDA + investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (Idaho Power) + Baa1/A- credit rating (IDACORP) + ~53-55M diluted shares + weighted average debt maturity ~10-12 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$185-220M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$3.40-3.60 aggregate annual dividend (post-FY2025 ~14+ year continued dividend increase track record) + selected continued ~5.0-5.5x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate FY2024-2029 cumulative capital expenditure plan continuation. Selected ~57%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (Idaho Power) + Baa1/A- credit rating (IDACORP) support continued capital return + Idaho Power Capex + Data Center + Coal-to-Gas + Renewable Capex execution.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$1.85-1.95B (+5-10% YoY) vs $1.79B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$5.85-6.10
• 1 segment: Idaho Power vertically integrated regulated electric utility 99%+ ($1.85-1.95B) + IDACORP Financial Services ~1% ($5-10M)
• Geographic mix: Idaho ~96%+ + Oregon ~4%
• Idaho Power net plant in service: ~$3.8-4.0B aggregate
• Generation capacity: ~3.6-3.9GW aggregate; mix: Hydro ~30-35% + Natural Gas ~35-40% + Coal ~15-20% (Jim Bridger + Valmy) + Renewable ~10-15%
• Coal-to-Gas transition pipeline: ~$0.5-0.8B aggregate cumulative capex (Jim Bridger + Valmy)
• Annual sales growth target: ~+6-8%
• Annual Capex deployment: ~$0.8-1.1B aggregate (post-2024)
• FY2024-2029 cumulative capital expenditure plan: ~$5B+
• Allowed ROE: ~9-10%
• Top data center customers: Meta + Micron + hyperscale + semiconductor + AI/HPC
• ~13+ year aggregate dividend increase track record
• Net leverage ~5.0-5.5x Net Debt/EBITDA
• ~53-55M diluted shares; ~$185-190M total capital return FY2025
• Dividend ~$3.40 annual (~57%+ payout; ~3.0-3.5% yield)
• Investment-grade A3/A- credit rating (Idaho Power) + Baa1/A- credit rating (IDACORP)
• Weighted average debt maturity ~10-12 years

Market Evaluation

IDA FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$105-130 share price + ~53-55M diluted shares = ~$6-7B market cap; ~$3.40 aggregate annual dividend + ~3.0-3.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary IDA peers: PacifiCorp (Berkshire Hathaway-owned; Pacific Northwest competitor) + Avista (AVA, ~$3-4B Mcap; Pacific Northwest) + Portland General Electric (POR, ~$4-5B; Oregon) + NorthWestern Energy (NWE, ~$3-4B; Montana + South Dakota + Nebraska) + Black Hills (BKH, ~$4-5B) + Pinnacle West Capital (PNW, ~$8-10B; Arizona) + Hawaiian Electric (HE, ~$1-2B) + selected various aggregate Western US regulated electric utility companies. Selected IDA ~17-22x P/E + selected ~9-11x EV/EBITDA + selected ~3.0-3.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$2.0-2.15B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$6.30-6.65 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$185-220M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Idaho Power + Data Center + Capex pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$2.0-2.15B aggregate revenue + ~$6.30-6.65 adj. EPS + ~$185-220M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Idaho data center load growth acceleration + Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor + AI/HPC data center customer expansion + Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition + ~$5B+ FY2024-2029 cumulative capex execution + ~6-8% annual sales growth + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts drives ~$2.10-2.25B aggregate revenue + ~$6.50-6.90 EPS. Bear case: PacifiCorp + Avista + Portland General Electric + NorthWestern Energy + Black Hills + Pinnacle West Capital competitive intensification + Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) + Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) regulated rate cycle considerations + post-2024 Jim Bridger + Valmy coal-to-gas transition execution considerations + Hydro generation cycle considerations + Meta + Micron + selected various aggregate hyperscale + semiconductor data center customer concentration considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-2020 Lisa Grow CEO succession planning considerations drives ~$1.85-1.95B revenue + ~$5.55-5.85 EPS. The thesis depends on Idaho Power Hydro + Natural Gas + Coal-to-Gas Transition + Idaho Data Center + Load Growth + Capex pipeline + ~13+ year dividend track record.