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[ACA] Arcosa Thesis 2026: Aggregates Roll-Up Reshapes the Mix Away From Cyclical Barges

Ddrillr ResearchOriginal research
Published 19 min read

Key Takeaways

  • ACA FY2025 revenue ~$2.7-3.1B (+8-15% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$3.50-5.00 reflecting continued ~$1.4-1.7B aggregate Construction Products revenue + ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate Engineered Structures revenue + ~$0.40-0.55B aggregate Transportation Products revenue under continued President + CEO Antonio Carrillo (~~~7-8 year tenure as Arcosa CEO since the 2018 spin-off from Trinity Industries; selected primary post-2018 ~~led the standalone company from the start + selected various aggregate ~~~prior Trinity executive + Mexichem/Orbia background + selected primary architect of post-2018-2025 ~~the portfolio-reshaping strategy — growing Construction Products (aggregates, less cyclical, higher-margin) via acquisitions + reducing exposure to cyclical Transportation Products (barges, steel components) + the recent Stavola acquisition (NYC-metro asphalt/aggregates) as the largest move).
  • Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up Pipeline (~$1.4-1.7B Revenue): ~$1.4-1.7B aggregate Construction Products revenue (aggregate ~50-58% revenue mix, the largest + highest-margin segment); selected primary natural aggregates + specialty materials (selected primary ~~~natural aggregates — crushed stone + sand & gravel — quarries + pits supplying ready-mix concrete + asphalt + construction in regional markets (Texas + the South + the Mountain West + the Mid-Atlantic + recently the NYC metro via Stavola) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~"local monopoly" economics — aggregates are heavy/low-value-density, so transport costs limit the radius a competitor can ship into; a quarry near a growing metro is a long-duration, pricing-power asset + selected various aggregate ~~~specialty materials — recycled aggregates + lightweight aggregate + natural gypsum/plaster + trench-shoring/shielding (the Steel-related "trench plate" business) + selected various aggregate ~~~~asphalt (via Stavola — a vertically integrated NYC-metro asphalt + aggregates + recycled-materials operation) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~the roll-up — Arcosa has been acquiring aggregates assets (Stavola, plus earlier deals like the natural-aggregates and lightweight-aggregate acquisitions) to build scale in attractive growth markets) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Construction Products growth + margin (selected primary ~~~~aggregates pricing (mid-to-high-single-digit %+ price increases — a structural feature of the industry, even when volumes are flattish) + selected various aggregate ~~~~volumes tied to infrastructure spending (IIJA/highway funding), nonresidential + residential construction (mixed — public infrastructure strong, private construction softer at high rates) + selected various aggregate ~~~~Stavola contribution + integration + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Construction Products adj. EBITDA margin toward ~~~22-28%+ aggregate (the high-margin growth engine)).
  • Engineered Structures + Transportation Products Pipeline (~$1.3-1.6B Revenue + Mix-Shift Catalyst): ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate Engineered Structures revenue + ~$0.40-0.55B aggregate Transportation Products revenue (aggregate ~42-50% revenue mix, declining as Construction Products grows); selected primary Engineered Structures (selected primary ~~~~utility steel structures — transmission + distribution poles + substation structures (riding grid investment — utilities are spending heavily on T&D to handle load growth, electrification, renewables interconnection, reliability/hardening — a multi-year tailwind) + selected various aggregate ~~~~wind-turbine towers (a choppy business — onshore wind demand is cyclical + policy-sensitive (PTC/IRA), but the long-run buildout is up) + selected various aggregate ~~~~telecom structures (towers, monopoles — 5G/densification) + traffic structures (highway signs, signals — IIJA) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~Engineered Structures adj. EBITDA margin ~~~12-18% aggregate) + selected various aggregate Transportation Products (selected primary ~~~~inland river barges (hopper barges for grain/coal/aggregates + tank barges for petroleum/chemicals — via Arcosa Marine; a barge-replacement-cycle business — the US inland barge fleet is aging, but new-build demand is lumpy + cyclical) + selected various aggregate ~~~~steel components (couplers, axles + other components for railcars + industrial uses) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~the segment Arcosa wants to shrink-as-a-%-of-mix — cyclical, lower-margin, capital-intensive; Arcosa explored/executed divestitures of pieces (e.g., the steel-components business) + selected various aggregate ~~~~Transportation Products adj. EBITDA margin ~~~10-16% aggregate (cyclical)) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Engineered Structures grid tailwind + Transportation Products mix-down (selected primary ~~~~utility-structures demand (the grid-investment supercycle — Arcosa is well-positioned in transmission/distribution steel) + selected various aggregate ~~~~wind volatility + selected various aggregate ~~~~barge-cycle positioning + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~the continued reshaping — Construction Products toward ~~~60%+ of revenue/EBITDA over time, Transportation Products toward ~~~15% or sold).
  • Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~~0.1-0.3% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~~quarterly ~~~$0.05 + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~low payout — capital prioritized to M&A + organic growth + deleveraging) + selected various aggregate ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary ~~~minimal — capital deployed to acquisitions) + aggregate net debt ~$1.5-2.5B (selected various aggregate ~~~~elevated post-Stavola — the acquisition was largely debt-funded; rapid deleveraging on free cash flow + EBITDA growth) + selected primary ~~~~~~2.0-3.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~~~~~elevated post-Stavola; deleveraging toward ~~~2.0-2.5x) + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade, crossover-aspiration on deleveraging) + ~~~~~48-50M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~~~roughly stable; modest stock-based comp).
  • FY2026 thesis catalysts: Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline (~$1.4-1.7B + natural aggregates with "local monopoly" economics + specialty materials (recycled/lightweight/plaster/trench-shoring) + Stavola NYC-metro asphalt/aggregates + the aggregates roll-up + aggregates pricing (mid-to-high-single-digit %+) + IIJA/infrastructure volume tailwind + 22-28%+ Construction Products adj. EBITDA margin) + Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline ($1.3-1.6B + utility T&D steel structures riding the grid-investment supercycle + wind towers (choppy) + telecom/traffic structures + inland barges (cyclical replacement) + steel components (shrinking) + the mix-shift toward Construction Products) + ~$0.20-0.22 dividend + minimal buybacks + ~2.0-3.5x net debt/EBITDA deleveraging + Antonio Carrillo portfolio-reshaping + Stavola integration execution.

Company Background

Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE: ACA) is a US infrastructure-products company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, spun out of Trinity Industries in 2018 (selected primary post-2018 spin-off — Trinity separated its infrastructure-products businesses (aggregates, utility structures, barges, etc.) into Arcosa + selected post-2018-2025 ~~the portfolio-reshaping strategy under Antonio Carrillo — growing Construction Products (aggregates) via acquisitions (natural-aggregates deals, lightweight aggregate, recycled materials, and the large Stavola acquisition — NYC-metro asphalt/aggregates) while reducing exposure to cyclical Transportation Products (barges, steel components — explored/executed divestitures) + selected various aggregate ~~NYSE listing). Selected post-2018 NYSE listing as Arcosa; selected post-2018-2025 Antonio Carrillo CEO era (CEO from the spin-off; prior Trinity + Mexichem/Orbia executive; architect of the reshaping strategy); HQ Dallas, Texas; ~~~6,000-8,000 employees.

ACA operates three segments: Construction Products (~50-58% revenue mix; ~$1.4-1.7B; natural aggregates — crushed stone + sand & gravel — plus specialty materials (recycled aggregates, lightweight aggregate, natural gypsum/plaster, trench-shoring/shielding) plus asphalt (via Stavola); the largest + highest-margin segment, a roll-up of aggregates assets) + Engineered Structures (~30-36% revenue mix; ~$0.85-1.05B; utility steel structures — T&D poles + substation structures — plus wind-turbine towers, telecom structures, traffic structures) + Transportation Products (~14-18% revenue mix; ~$0.40-0.55B; inland river barges — hopper + tank — via Arcosa Marine, plus steel components; the cyclical segment Arcosa is shrinking as a % of mix). Geographic mix: predominantly US (regional aggregates markets in Texas, the South, the Mountain West, the Mid-Atlantic, the NYC metro; utility/wind/barge nationwide). Capital position: ~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual dividend per share (~0.1-0.3% yield) + ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (minimal) + aggregate net debt ~$1.5-2.5B + ~2.0-3.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 credit profile + ~48-50M aggregate diluted shares.

Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up Pipeline (~$1.4-1.7B Revenue)

The Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline is ACA's foundation thesis: ~$1.4-1.7B aggregate Construction Products revenue (aggregate ~50-58% revenue mix, the largest + highest-margin segment); selected primary natural aggregates + specialty materials (selected primary ~~~natural aggregates — crushed stone + sand & gravel — quarries + pits supplying ready-mix concrete + asphalt + construction in regional markets (Texas + the South + the Mountain West + the Mid-Atlantic + recently the NYC metro via Stavola) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~"local monopoly" economics — aggregates are heavy/low-value-density, so transport costs limit the radius a competitor can ship into; a quarry near a growing metro is a long-duration, pricing-power asset + selected various aggregate ~~~specialty materials — recycled aggregates + lightweight aggregate + natural gypsum/plaster + trench-shoring/shielding + selected various aggregate ~~~~asphalt (via Stavola — a vertically integrated NYC-metro asphalt + aggregates + recycled-materials operation) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~the roll-up — Arcosa has been acquiring aggregates assets to build scale in attractive growth markets) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Construction Products growth + margin.

FY2025 Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up dynamics ($1.4-1.7B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~~~+10-20%+ aggregate Construction Products revenue growth (selected primary ~~~~the Stavola acquisition contribution (a step-change in revenue + EBITDA + scale in the NYC metro) + selected various aggregate ~~~~aggregates pricing (mid-to-high-single-digit %+ price increases — structural pricing power) + selected various aggregate ~~~~volumes mixed (public infrastructure / IIJA-funded highway work strong; private nonresidential + residential softer at high rates) + selected various aggregate ~~~~specialty materials + selected various aggregate ~~~~prior acquisitions seasoning) + ~$1.4-1.7B aggregate Construction Products revenue + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~Construction Products adj. EBITDA margin toward ~~~22-28%+ aggregate (selected various aggregate ~the high-margin engine; aggregates are a high-margin, high-ROC business; specialty materials + asphalt are somewhat lower-margin). Selected post-2024 ~$2.20-3.20 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution as the Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline drives the dominant + highest-quality earnings base.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline + ~$2.20-3.20 aggregate adj. EPS contribution under continued Antonio Carrillo leadership (~7-8 year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.6-1.9B aggregate FY2026 Construction Products revenue + selected various ~~~+8-18%+ aggregate growth (selected various aggregate ~Stavola full-year + aggregates pricing + IIJA volume + bolt-on acquisitions) + selected various aggregate ~~~~aggregates pricing (mid-to-high-single-digit %+) + selected various aggregate ~~~~IIJA/infrastructure-spending volume tailwind (highway/bridge work, water projects) + selected various aggregate ~~~~Stavola integration + synergies + selected various aggregate ~~~~more aggregates bolt-ons (the roll-up continues) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~Construction Products adj. EBITDA margin toward ~~~24-30%+ aggregate (improvement; pricing + Stavola mix + operating leverage). Risks: Vulcan Materials (VMC, ~$35-45B Mcap; the #1 US aggregates producer) + Martin Marietta (MLM, ~$30-40B; #2 US aggregates) + CRH (CRH, ~$60-80B; aggregates + cement + building products) + Eagle Materials (EXP, ~$8-12B; aggregates + cement + gypsum) + Summit Materials (within Quikrete/private; aggregates + cement) + Knife River (KNF, ~$3-5B; aggregates + ready-mix + asphalt — a direct comp) + United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) + selected various aggregate aggregates + construction-materials competitive considerations + construction-cycle considerations (private nonresidential + residential construction is rate-sensitive — a slowdown hits volumes; public infrastructure is the offset) + IIJA/infrastructure-funding considerations (the highway/water/grid funding tailwind — and the risk of funding delays, state-DOT bottlenecks, or a post-IIJA cliff) + aggregates-pricing-power considerations (the moat — but a severe construction recession could pressure even aggregates volumes) + Stavola-integration considerations (the largest acquisition Arcosa has done — execution + synergy realization matters) + permitting / reserve-life considerations (quarries need permits + decades of reserves; permitting is getting harder) + commodity / diesel / freight cost considerations + acquisition-pace / valuation considerations (aggregates assets are expensive — disciplined M&A matters) + weather considerations (construction is seasonal/weather-sensitive).

Engineered Structures + Transportation Products Pipeline (~$1.3-1.6B Revenue + Mix-Shift Catalyst)

The Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline is ACA's grid-tailwind + portfolio-reshaping thesis: ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate Engineered Structures revenue + ~$0.40-0.55B aggregate Transportation Products revenue (aggregate ~42-50% revenue mix, declining as Construction Products grows); selected primary Engineered Structures (selected primary ~~~~utility steel structures — transmission + distribution poles + substation structures (riding grid investment — utilities are spending heavily on T&D to handle load growth, electrification, renewables interconnection, reliability/hardening — a multi-year tailwind; Arcosa is a leading US producer of steel utility structures) + selected various aggregate ~~~~wind-turbine towers (a choppy business — onshore wind demand is cyclical + policy-sensitive (PTC/IRA), but the long-run buildout is up) + selected various aggregate ~~~~telecom structures (towers, monopoles — 5G/densification) + traffic structures (highway signs, signals — IIJA) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~Engineered Structures adj. EBITDA margin ~~~12-18% aggregate) + selected various aggregate Transportation Products (selected primary ~~~~inland river barges (hopper barges for grain/coal/aggregates + tank barges for petroleum/chemicals — via Arcosa Marine; a barge-replacement-cycle business — the US inland barge fleet is aging, but new-build demand is lumpy + cyclical) + selected various aggregate ~~~~steel components (couplers, axles + other components) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~the segment Arcosa wants to shrink-as-a-%-of-mix — cyclical, lower-margin, capital-intensive + selected various aggregate ~~~~Transportation Products adj. EBITDA margin ~~~10-16% aggregate (cyclical)) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Engineered Structures grid tailwind + Transportation Products mix-down.

FY2025 Engineered Structures + Transportation Products dynamics: selected primary ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate Engineered Structures revenue (selected various aggregate ~~~~utility-structures demand strong — the grid-investment supercycle + selected various aggregate ~~~~wind towers choppy — order timing + IRA-implementation uncertainty + selected various aggregate ~~~~telecom + traffic + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~Engineered Structures adj. EBITDA margin ~~~12-18%) + selected various aggregate ~$0.40-0.55B aggregate Transportation Products revenue (selected various aggregate ~~~~barge demand recovering off a trough — fleet replacement + grain/aggregates/petroleum-chemical barge orders + selected various aggregate ~~~~steel components + selected various aggregate ~~~~Transportation Products adj. EBITDA margin ~~~10-16%). Selected post-2024 ~$1.30-2.00 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution as the Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline drives the grid-tailwind + the (declining) cyclical-segment contribution.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline + ~$1.30-2.00 aggregate adj. EPS contribution + selected various aggregate ~$0.90-1.10B aggregate FY2026 Engineered Structures revenue (selected various aggregate ~~~~utility T&D steel structures — the grid-investment supercycle (load growth from data centers/electrification, renewables interconnection backlog, reliability/hardening, grid expansion — utilities' T&D capex is rising for years) + selected various aggregate ~~~~wind towers (volatile — depends on IRA implementation + project timing + selected various aggregate ~~~~telecom + traffic) + selected various aggregate ~$0.40-0.55B aggregate FY2026 Transportation Products revenue (selected various aggregate ~~~~barge-cycle positioning — recovering but cyclical + selected various aggregate ~~~~steel components — possibly divested) + selected various aggregate ~~~~the continued reshaping — Construction Products toward ~~~60%+ of revenue/EBITDA over time, Transportation Products toward ~~~15% or sold. Risks: in utility structures — Valmont Industries (VMI, ~$5-7B Mcap; utility structures + lighting + irrigation + coatings — a direct competitor in utility steel) + Quanta Services (PWR — adjacent, the EPC/infrastructure side) + Mastec (MTZ) + Sabre Industries (private), Trinity Highway (within Trinity — TRN) + on wind towers — Vestas, GE Vernova (GEV), Siemens Gamesa (turbine OEMs, who source towers) + Broadwind (BWEN; wind towers — a small comp) + CS Wind (Korea) + on barges — ACBL/American Commercial Barge Line, Ingram Marine (private; barge operators who buy from Arcosa) + Trinity Marine (within Trinity — TRN; the other major US barge builder — a direct competitor) + selected various aggregate utility-structures + wind-tower + barge competitive considerations + grid-capex-cycle considerations (the utility T&D investment tailwind — strong, but project timing + utility-rate-case approvals matter) + wind-policy considerations (IRA PTC/ITC implementation, interconnection queues, permitting — wind orders are lumpy and policy-sensitive) + barge-cycle considerations (cyclical, capital-intensive, low-margin — the segment Arcosa wants to de-emphasize; a barge upcycle helps near-term, but Arcosa may sell into strength) + steel-cost considerations (Engineered Structures + Transportation Products are steel-intensive — steel-price volatility affects margins + working capital) + reshaping-execution considerations (divesting Transportation Products pieces at good prices) + Trinity-as-competitor considerations (the former parent competes in barges + highway).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~~0.1-0.3% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~~quarterly ~~~$0.05 + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~low payout — capital prioritized to M&A + organic growth + deleveraging) + selected various aggregate ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (selected primary ~~~minimal — capital deployed to acquisitions) + aggregate net debt ~$1.5-2.5B (selected various aggregate ~~~~elevated post-Stavola — the acquisition was largely debt-funded (term loan + bonds); rapid deleveraging on free cash flow + EBITDA growth) + selected primary ~~~~~~2.0-3.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~~~~~elevated post-Stavola; deleveraging toward ~~~2.0-2.5x within ~~~1-2 years) + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade; investment-grade aspiration on deleveraging) + ~~~~~48-50M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~~~roughly stable; modest stock-based comp) + weighted average debt maturity ~5-8 years + selected various aggregate ~~~~~$0.3-0.7B aggregate liquidity (revolver + cash).

FY2026 catalyst: continued dividend (~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual; selected various aggregate ~~~modest growth — the dividend is small + not the focus) + selected continued ~$0+ aggregate buybacks (minimal) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~2.0-3.0x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (selected primary ~~~deleveraging post-Stavola — free cash flow + EBITDA growth + possibly divestiture proceeds from Transportation Products pieces + selected various aggregate ~~~the path back to ~~~2.0-2.5x and an investment-grade profile) + selected various aggregate ~~~~more aggregates bolt-on M&A (the roll-up continues — funded by free cash flow once delevered) + selected various aggregate ~~~~potential Transportation Products divestiture proceeds (deleveraging + further mix-shift) + selected continued BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 credit profile (selected various aggregate ~potential upgrade trajectory). Selected small dividend + selected minimal buybacks + selected ~deleveraging + selected ~M&A-funded growth support the build-the-aggregates-business-shrink-the-cyclical-business model.

Key Core Metrics

  • FY2025 revenue ~$2.7-3.1B (+8-15% YoY) vs ~$2.88B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$3.50-5.00
  • 3 segments: Construction Products ~50-58% ($1.4-1.7B; natural aggregates + specialty materials (recycled/lightweight/plaster/trench-shoring) + asphalt (Stavola); the largest + highest-margin) + Engineered Structures ~30-36% ($0.85-1.05B; utility steel structures (T&D poles, substation) + wind towers + telecom/traffic structures) + Transportation Products ~14-18% ($0.40-0.55B; inland barges (Arcosa Marine) + steel components; the cyclical segment being shrunk)
  • Construction Products adj. EBITDA margin: ~22-28%+ aggregate (the high-margin engine); Engineered Structures: ~12-18%; Transportation Products: ~10-16% (cyclical)
  • Aggregates: "local monopoly" economics (heavy/low-value-density → transport costs limit competitive radius); structural pricing power (mid-to-high-single-digit %+ annual price increases)
  • Stavola acquisition: NYC-metro vertically integrated asphalt + aggregates + recycled materials (the largest deal Arcosa has done; a step-change in scale + EBITDA)
  • The roll-up: Arcosa acquiring aggregates assets in attractive growth markets (Stavola + earlier natural-aggregates / lightweight-aggregate / recycled-materials deals)
  • Engineered Structures: riding the grid-investment supercycle (utility T&D capex rising for years — load growth, electrification, renewables interconnection, reliability/hardening); wind towers choppy (IRA/PTC, project timing); telecom/traffic (5G, IIJA)
  • Transportation Products: barge-replacement-cycle business (aging US inland fleet; lumpy/cyclical new-build); steel components (possibly divested); the segment Arcosa wants toward ~15% of mix or sold
  • IIJA/infrastructure-funding tailwind for Construction Products volumes (highway/bridge/water work)
  • Aggregate adj. EBITDA: ~$0.45-0.60B FY2025; aggregate adj. EBITDA margin ~16-20%
  • Aggregate net debt: ~$1.5-2.5B (elevated post-Stavola, debt-funded); ~2.0-3.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (deleveraging toward ~2.0-2.5x)
  • BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade; IG aspiration on deleveraging)
  • ~48-50M aggregate diluted shares (roughly stable); ~$0.01B total dividends FY2025
  • Dividend: ~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual per share (~0.1-0.3% yield; quarterly ~$0.05; low payout — capital prioritized to M&A + deleveraging)
  • Minimal buybacks (capital deployed to acquisitions)
  • ~$0.3-0.7B aggregate liquidity (revolver + cash)
  • Geographic mix: predominantly US (regional aggregates markets in TX/the South/Mountain West/Mid-Atlantic/NYC metro; utility/wind/barge nationwide)
  • ~6,000-8,000 employees
  • Antonio Carrillo President + CEO since 2018 (~7-8 year tenure; from the Trinity spin-off; prior Trinity + Mexichem/Orbia executive)
  • HQ Dallas, Texas; spun out of Trinity Industries 2018; NYSE listing

Market Evaluation

ACA FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$80-130 share price + ~48-50M aggregate diluted shares = ~$4-6.5B equity market cap; ~$5.5-9B aggregate enterprise value (incl. ~$1.5-2.5B net debt); ~$0.20-0.22 aggregate annual dividend (~0.1-0.3% aggregate yield). Selected primary ACA peers: Vulcan Materials (VMC, ~$35-45B Mcap; #1 US aggregates) + Martin Marietta (MLM, ~$30-40B; #2 US aggregates) + Knife River (KNF, ~$3-5B; aggregates + ready-mix + asphalt — a direct comp, also a Trinity-adjacent spin) + Eagle Materials (EXP, ~$8-12B; aggregates + cement + gypsum) + CRH (CRH, ~$60-80B; aggregates + cement + building products) + on utility structures — Valmont Industries (VMI, ~$5-7B) + Quanta Services (PWR), Mastec (MTZ) + on barges/transportation — Trinity Industries (TRN, ~$2-4B; the former parent — railcars + barges) + selected various aggregate construction-materials + infrastructure-products companies. Selected ACA ~14-22x P/E (an infrastructure-products company reshaping toward Construction Products (aggregates — "local monopoly" pricing power, high margins, the IIJA volume tailwind, the Stavola NYC-metro asset, the aggregates roll-up) and away from cyclical Transportation Products (barges), with Engineered Structures riding the grid-investment supercycle, deleveraging post-Stavola) + selected ~~~9-13x EV/EBITDA (a discount to pure-play aggregates names like VMC/MLM at ~15-20x — the discount narrows as the mix shifts toward aggregates) + selected ~~~~1.5-2.5x P/Sales + ~0.1-0.3% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$2.9-3.3B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$4.00-5.50 aggregate FY2026 adj. EPS + selected aggregate Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up + Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline + sum-of-the-parts (a high-multiple aggregates business + a grid-levered structures business + a low-multiple cyclical barge business that may be sold). FY2026 base case: ~$2.9-3.3B aggregate revenue + ~$4.00-5.50 adj. EPS + ~$0.50-0.65B adj. EBITDA + ~2.0-3.0x net debt/EBITDA. Bull case: Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline acceleration (Stavola full-year + synergies + aggregates pricing (high-single-digit %+) + IIJA volume strength + more bolt-on aggregates acquisitions + Construction Products toward ~60%+ of EBITDA + ~26-30%+ adj. EBITDA margin) + Engineered Structures pipeline acceleration (the grid-investment supercycle + utility T&D backlog + wind recovery + ~16-20% adj. EBITDA margin) + deleveraging (toward ~2.0-2.5x, an IG-profile re-rating) + a Transportation Products divestiture (proceeds + a cleaner story) drives ~$3.1-3.6B aggregate revenue + ~$5.50-7.50 adj. EPS + a multiple re-rating toward aggregates-peer levels. Bear case: a construction recession (private nonresidential + residential weakness + an IIJA-funding cliff or delays hitting aggregates volumes) + Vulcan/Martin Marietta/CRH/Eagle competitive considerations + a wind-policy setback (IRA changes, interconnection bottlenecks — Engineered Structures wind volatility) + a barge downcycle (Transportation Products) + steel-cost volatility + Stavola-integration missteps + a slow deleveraging path (acquisition appetite vs balance-sheet discipline) + the persistent cyclical-mix discount + weather/seasonal disruptions drives ~$2.6-2.9B revenue + ~$3.00-4.00 adj. EPS + ~3.0-3.5x net debt/EBITDA. The thesis depends on the Construction Products Aggregates Roll-Up pipeline + the Engineered Structures + Transportation Products pipeline + aggregates "local monopoly" pricing power + the Stavola asset + the aggregates roll-up + the IIJA volume tailwind + the grid-investment supercycle in utility structures + the mix-shift toward Construction Products + deleveraging post-Stavola + Antonio Carrillo portfolio-reshaping + Stavola integration execution.

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